The Boston Red Sox will resume their series with the Baltimore Orioles on Wednesday afternoon.
Garrett Crochet will hope to even the series up for the Red Sox, while the Orioles look to Zach Eflin to move to 2-0.
My Red Sox vs. Orioles predictions for Wednesday, April 2, explain why Rafael Devers' ineptitude can be profitable for your MLB picks.
Red Sox vs Orioles prediction
My Red Sox vs Orioles best bet: Rafael Devers Over 1.5 strikeouts (+160 at bet365)
Rafael Devers is struggling even more than you may think.
Yes, I know that seems like an odd statement, given 15 strikeouts in 19 at-bats is a pretty clear indicator that the Boston Red Sox slugger is mired in a slump of historic proportions. But it would be easy to assume that he’s simply seen some nasty stuff, he’s swinging at bad pitches, or even that there’s been bad luck involved.
The underlying metrics say that there’s a strong chance this run of failure won’t end anytime soon. His bat speed is down by more than two miles per hour from last season. According to Statcast, his “fast swing rate” is down to nearly 12%, less than half what it was last season.
That explains why he’s struggling even to hit fastballs. So far, he’s seen four-seam fastballs in nearly half the pitches thrown to him. In fact, he’s only seen 30 breaking balls in the 127 pitches thrown to him this season.
And yet, he’s got a whiff rate of 55.6% at the four-seamers he’s swung at. That’s the same whiff rate he’s posted against the sinker, which he’s seen 20 times. His xBA on fastballs of any kind is just .007, which shows just how much he’s struggled to catch up.
Making matters worse, he’s put just four balls into play — all of which were topped, and three of which were pulled grounders. His xBA on the season is .025, and he’s whiffed on nearly 55% of the pitches he’s swung at.
What’s most scary is he’s not chasing. He’s got a strong walk rate and has a chase rate of just 18%, despite a career chase rate over 33%. But when you swing at 80% of the pitches in the zone and whiff on nearly half of them, you’re not going to have a good time.
Devers has a solid history against Baltimore Orioles starter Zach Eflin, but he’s also struck out five times in 16 ABs. Eflin relies on a cut fastball, a sinker, a sweeper, and a curveball. He’s not a high-velocity guy, but Devers isn’t displaying his typical timing and he’s swinging over nearly everything.
I expect we’ll see the Baltimore starter rely heavily on the sinker today, and a cutter that will move in on a hitter who is already pulling when he swings. Take Devers to post his fifth multi-strikeout game of the season, especially with odds of +160 on offer.
Red Sox vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Rafael Devers 2+ strikeouts
Garrett Crochet Under 7.5 strikeouts
Adley Rutschman 2+ H+R+RBI
Garrett Crochet struck out just four batters in five innings in his first start against the Rangers — and three of those came vs. left-handed hitters.
He will face a mostly right-handed or switch-hitting Orioles lineup today, against whom he’s given up five hits with just one strikeout in 16 at-bats. Many of the Orioles hitters have posted a strong whiff rate this season, and I don’t see him getting to eight Ks here.
Adley Rutschman has faced Crochet only three times, but he took him deep in one of those. Last season, the catcher hit .329 and slugged .512 against LHP and he’s got a .344 xBA so far in 2025.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Red Sox vs Orioles odds
Red Sox vs Orioles live odds
Red Sox vs Orioles opening odds
- Moneyline: Boston -115 | Baltimore -105
- Run line: Boston -1.5 (+150) | Baltimore +1.5 (-180)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-115) | Under 8 (-105)
Red Sox vs Orioles trend
The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 away games (+7.70 Units / 48% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Orioles.
How to watch Red Sox vs Orioles and game info
| Location | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date | Wednesday, 4-2-2025 |
| First pitch | 6:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | NESN, MASN |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Garrett Crochet (0-0, 3.60 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher | Zach Eflin (1-0, 3.00 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Orioles latest injuries
Red Sox vs Orioles weather
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