The week continues to show winners with another 2-1 day, this time for +1.57 units. It's a getaway day for many on Wednesday and there are a lot of pitcher props showing value in the outs, hits allowed, strikeouts, and walks allowed markets.
These are my favorite pitcher props and MLB picks for Wednesday, April 2.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for April 2
Lucas o11.5 outs (-125 at bet365)
Skubal u1.5 earned runs (+100 at DraftKings)
Roupp u1.5 walks allowed (+125 at DraftKings)
Today's SP best bets
Nationals vs. Blue Jays
The angle: Easton Lucas's out prop is in a tough spot to price but 80+ pitches are possible.
The move: Easton Lucas Over 11.5 outs (-125 at bet365)
Oddsmakers are struggling to price the Toronto Blue Jays starter. He has never really been a true starter but THE BAT is projecting 82 pitches and 14.9 outs from Easton Lucas today, who has a great matchup vs. the Washington Nationals.
Washington's K% through five games is a league-high 32.8%. There is potential for the projected K/inning pitcher to get out of trouble if he has to. Toronto beat writer Keegan Matheson is expecting a decent leash for Lucas, which might not be priced in here.
It's also a getaway game for the Nationals and they could be using some bench bats, which might make life easier for the starter. It's not often books give us markets at this number, but four innings looks good on the near-15 projection.
Mariners vs. Tigers
The angle: Tarik Skubal doesn't have to face the Dodgers this time and gets the heavy K% Mariners
The move: Tarik Skubal Under 1.5 earned runs (+100 at DraftKings)
The reigning Cy Young winner gets a much better matchup in his second start of the year after opening his season vs. the Dodgers, who took him for four runs over 15 outs. Now the lefty will get to rebound vs. the Mariners, who still strike out at an alarming rate (27%), and gets the comforts of an indoor game away from the heavy winds and sub-60 temperatures.
Tarik Skubal projects as one of the most dominating pitchers today with 7.25 strikeouts and just 4.1 hits allowed over 91 pitches. He didn't hit 100 pitches until mid-July last year. Seventeen of his 31 starts last year hit this Under.
Skubal saw the Mariners two times last year in back-to-back starts and allowed just six hits over 13 innings while striking out 18 batters. His Over 7.5 Ks at plus money is showing value but a quick six innings and 90 pitches vs. this lineup is the likely outcome for the best pitcher in the AL.
Giants vs. Astros
The angle: Landen Roupp won the fifth starter job on the back of a 14:1 K:BB in the spring
The move: Landen Roupp Under 1.5 walks allowed (+125 at DraftKings)
Landen Roupp had just a single walk in the spring over 12 innings and the books aren't entirely sure how to price his walk market. It's as short as EVEN in some places and considering the control and a pitch count projected around 80 pitches, anything at plus money should be bet.
He didn't walk a batter across any of his last three starts and worked up to 62 pitches in the warm-ups. He did walk 26 over 50 innings last year but seems to have corrected some issues. He also has the motivation to hold off Hayden Birdsong for the last rotation spot. Not walking batters is a key way to keep that role as Birdsong gave out free passes on command last year.
The Astros aren't a high percentage walk team, ranking in the middle of the pack, and Roupp might only have 4-5 inning leash. This should close shorter than even money.
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