The Seattle Mariners return home for a three-game series with the Houston Astros beginning Monday night at T-Mobile Park.
Seattle hopes to turn the tide after getting swept in San Francisco and has the right man on the mound in ace Logan Gilbert.
Astros vs Mariners prediction
My Astros vs Mariners best bet: Logan Gilbert Over 6.5 strikeouts (-106 at Caesars)
Big things were expected out of ace Logan Gilbert after he racked up a 3.23 ERA, 3.14 xERA, and 3.27 FIP across 208 2/3 innings a year ago.
After allowing three earned runs in a loss against the Tigers, there’s no need for alarm as his superb 38.6% K-BB% is nearly unheard of, but how has Gilbert increased his strikeout rate (40.9%) over 13% from a year ago, and is it sustainable?
Asking anyone to hold a K-rate above 40% for a whole season is ludicrous, so the gains won’t remain stable. However, a few notable patterns in his underlying metrics are worthy of note.
Gilbert’s swinging strike rate (20.6%) is up nearly six percentage points, and his 40% whiff rate ranks in the 93rd percentile. The biggest difference is the effectiveness of his four-seam fastball, which he’s throwing more frequently (up from 30.8% to 38.9%) to generate more whiffs (up from 19.3% to 30.6%).
The difference in his heater is reflected in Stuff+, where it’s graded as a 116 compared to last year’s 98. His splitter, slider, and curveball have always graded out well and remain deadly, and he can combine these with his born-again four-seamer to reach even greater heights in 2025.
Gilbert’s numbers were remarkable at T-Mobile Park a year ago. He posted a 2.49 ERA and 0.83 WHIP while limiting opposing batters to a .188 BA and striking them out 29.8% of the time.
Look for Gilbert to excel in his home environment against a Houston Astros lineup that has underwhelmed against right-handed pitching with a 78 wRC+, a .278 wOBA, and a 26.7% K rate.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Astros vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)
Logan Gilbert Over 6.5 strikeouts
Mariners moneyline
Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 total bases
Hayden Wesneski takes the mound for Houston after posting a second-percentile chase rate and 11th-percentile average exit velocity in his season debut against the Giants.
One Mariner bat poised to capitalize on this matchup is Julio Rodriguez, who has posted encouraging numbers against Wesneski’s three most common offerings against right-handed bats.
Rodriguez destroys four seamers (163 wRC+) and sinkers (146 wRC+). The most important factor against Wesneski is if you can hit the sweeper, and Rodriguez also passes that test. He fell back down to Earth after destroying the pitch for a .321 xBA and a .696 xSLG in 2023, but he’s already punished a few sweepers this season en route to a .512 xBA and 1.531 xSLG in a small but resounding sample size.
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Astros vs Mariners odds
Astros vs Mariners live odds
Astros vs Mariners opening odds
- Moneyline: Houston +145 | Seattle -170
- Run line: Houston +1.5 (-160) | Seattle -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: Over 7 | Under 7
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Astros vs Mariners trend
Logan Gilbert has recorded 7+ strikeouts in six straight home starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Mariners.
How to watch Astros vs Mariners and game info
| Location | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date | Monday, 4-7-2025 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | SCHN, RSNW |
| Astros starting pitcher | Hayden Wesneski (0-1, 5.40 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher | Logan Gilbert (0-1, 3.00 ERA) |
Astros vs Mariners latest injuries
Astros vs Mariners weather
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