Despite winning the first two games of this series, the Los Angeles Dodgers are short MLB odds underdogs when they meet the Atlanta Braves this afternoon.
My Braves vs. Dodgers predictions assess the pitching matchup as lefty James Paxton is tasked with shutting down the potent Atlanta offense while southpaw Max Fried toes the slab against the red-hot L.A. sticks.
Join me as I break this one down with free MLB picks on Sunday, May 5.
Braves vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Under 9 (-115 at FanDuel)
My analysis
This series between the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers has had a playoff feel, and Sunday’s finale won’t buck that trend.
Braves starter Max Fried has been electric across his previous two starts, allowing only three hits without an earned run and no-hit a good Mariners offense through six frames in his last start at Seattle.
As good as the Braves southpaw has been, his advanced metrics suggest the best is yet to come. His xERA sits a tick under three runs, and his 3.23 xFIP is as solid as it gets.
The Braves boast one of the most explosive offenses in baseball but have scored only 13 runs in the first five games of their six-game West Coast swing. They’ve struck out 20 times with only five runs scored in the first two games of this series, and that bodes well for the Dodgers' pitching staff.
Dodgers starter James Paxton is undefeated but has issued a whopping 22 walks in 25 2/3 innings. He’s served up less than one bomb per nine thanks to a soft four-seamer that moves just enough to boast the best weak hit percentage of his career.
Paxton is always on a short leash, and if things go sideways, manager Dave Roberts won’t hesitate to turn it over to a rested bullpen. The limping Braves offense will struggle against a ‘pen with the seventh-most holds (24) and 125 punchouts across 142 2/3 frames.
Look for a playoff atmosphere and a low-scoring affair today.
Braves vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 9
James Paxton Under 4.5 strikeouts
Braves moneyline
Paxton should have a tasty matchup against a Braves offense with 20 strikeouts in this series, but the veteran lefty has cleared his strikeout prop only once during his five starts this season.
Paxton may have too short a leash to clear 4.5 strikeouts, but he also has an xERA north of six runs. The Braves may be struggling at the plate during this road trip, but they’ll score just enough off Paxton for Fried and the Braves' lights-out bullpen to grab the win.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Dodgers odds
Braves vs Dodgers live odds
Braves vs Dodgers opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta -1.5 (+126) | Los Angeles +1.5 (-152)
- Moneyline: Atlanta -126 | Los Angeles +108
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-105)
Braves vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Money has come in on the Braves, with Atlanta now trading from -126 to as high as -135 across the industry.
- The Dodgers ML markets are trading from +108 to +115 from an opening low of +100.
- DraftKings opened at Over 8.5 (-120), with a total move to 9.0 (+100), while Over markets have Over 9.0 from +100 to -105.
- Under 8.5 trades at +100, while Under 9.0 markets are priced from -115 to -120.
Braves vs Dodgers trend
The Braves are 1-9 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Dodgers
Braves vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, 5-5-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Southeast, SportsNet LA |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Max Fried (2-0, 4.02 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | James Paxton (3-0, 3.51 ERA) |
Braves vs Dodgers latest injuries
Braves vs Dodgers weather
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