The Atlanta Braves have won seven of their last 10 games. That sounds nice on the surface until you realize that they’ve dropped three in a row entering Tuesday’s showdown with the San Francisco Giants.
The Giants are winners of three straight thanks to excellent pitching that has held the opposition to exactly two runs in each of those games. Despite being nine games back of the final NL Wild Card spot, this team has shown signs of life recently.
Will current form matter in Tuesday’s lopsided matchup?
Check out MLB picks and predictions for the Braves vs. Giants on Tuesday, September 13.
Braves vs Giants best odds
Braves vs Giants picks and predictions
In the interest of full disclosure, I will be betting the Braves’ moneyline (-155 at DraftKings) in addition to my best bet. I think the reigning World Series champions are being undervalued in this spot since they’ve lost three games in a row, but I’m not concerned about that mini-slump. This is still among the league’s most talented teams regardless if they’ve lost three straight and the Giants have won three straight — that form will correct itself very soon. The Braves are 43-13 in their last 56 road games against a team with a losing record, so they’ve thrived in spots like this.
Kyle Wright has really put things together in 2022 after posting some ugly numbers at points earlier in his career. He’s not what I’d qualify as a "strikeout pitcher," but he generates plenty of Ks and has a healthy 23.8% strikeout rate. He struggled with walks at the big-league level prior to this season, resulting in wild swings of inconsistency and ineffectiveness. The biggest change he made to his game is dropping his career walk rate from 14.8% entering 2022 to 9.7%. His 7.1% walk rate this season, is more in line with his numbers throughout the minors.
This drop in walks has worked wonders for his overall game — and more importantly for his strikeout prop — allowing him to pitch deeper into games. Now, let me outline why I like this matchup against the Giants.
In the month of September, the Giants have the highest strikeout rate (28.8%) in MLB. The gap between them and the second closest team, Miami at 27.1%, is larger than the gap between second and sixth place on that not-so-illustrious list.
San Francisco struck out 14 times in Game 1 against Atlanta on Monday. That should come as no surprise. Going back to August 30, the Giants have struck out at least nine times in 13 of 14 games. It’s been a remarkable run of consistently whiffing at the plate, and that’s exactly the kind of performance I want to see when handicapping a pitcher’s strikeout prop on the opposite side.
I’ll be playing Kyle Wright to go Over 4.5 strikeouts for -159 odds at Caesars Sportsbook. There’s also a 5.5 strikeout prop for +120 odds at FanDuel — a worse number for better odds. It’s possible the line moves in that direction until first pitch, and I’d play this one up to 6.
My best bet: Kyle Wright Over 4.5 strikeouts (-159 at Caesars)
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Braves vs Giants betting preview
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•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Moneyline analysis
The Braves have absolutely lived for games like this. Atlanta is 13-5 in its last 18 road games, so playing on the road at Oracle Park shouldn’t be a concern. Seven of the last 10 meetings between these two teams have resulted in an Atlanta victory.
You can read more into the fact that the Giants have won three straight games and the Braves have lost three in a row — or, you can consider that San Francisco is a middling, likely non-playoff team with a +7 run differential while Atlanta is a reigning World Series Champ that has a superb +158 run differential. It's a long season and Atlanta has proven itself over the long haul.
This seems like a good spot for the Braves to bounce back. They’re 43-13 in their last 56 road games against teams with losing records, which will be the case on Tuesday against the 68-73 Giants. The Braves are 14-5 in their last 19 games against the NL West, thoroughly dominating that division. They’ve also typically rebounded well, going 43-18 in their last 61 games following a loss.
Atlanta has the pitching advantage with Wright facing Jakob Junis, and the lineup holds a substantial edge as well. They’re the better team across the board regardless of current form.
Over/Under analysis
The Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these teams. When they’ve met in San Francisco, the Under is on an 8-3-1 run over their last 12 clashes by the bay.
As mentioned in the best bet section, Wright should find success against this Giants lineup. But despite striking out way too much, they rank 16th in wOBA and 17th in wRC+ in the month of September. Not great but not among the worst, either.
Junis has a decent 3.86 xERA and 3.82 FIP this season. Those may not look like much, but both are the best marks of his career by a substantial margin. His ERA is much better at home (3.56) than it is on the road (4.43), which is a welcome sign at Oracle Park despite facing a fearsome Braves lineup. Atlanta has cooled off just a bit to start September, ranking eighth in wOBA and ninth in wRC+ thus far in the month.
The Braves have cashed the Over in five of their last seven games overall. The Over is 9-4-4 in their last 17 road games against a right-handed starter.
The Giants are on the opposite end of the spectrum. They’ve cashed Under tickets in six straight games and are on an 8-1-2 run to the Under during Game 2 of a series.
Braves vs Giants game info
• Location: Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA
• Date: Tuesday, September 13, 2022
• First pitch: 9:45 p.m. ET
• TV: MLB Network
Starting pitchers
Kyle Wright (17-5, 3.23 ERA): Wright has been fantastic for Atlanta this season. It’s easy to forget since he’s been in the majors since 2018, but Wright is still only 26 years old. After putting up some ugly numbers in 2020 (5.21 ERA, 6.78 xERA), he mostly pitched at Triple-A a year ago and had a 9.95 ERA in 6 1-3 innings pitched at the MLB level. This year has been a different story, although his 3.92 xERA and 3.69 FIP indicate slight regression could be incoming.
Jakob Junis (4-5, 3.98 ERA): Junis has allowed 10 earned runs across his last three starts, raising his ERA to 3.98. He’s posting the best numbers of his career in his San Francisco debut, though, with a 3.86 xERA and 3.82 FIP. His home runs per nine innings allowed (1.17) and BABIP (.287) are both the lowest of his career, and it’s to be determined if that’s sustainable with a 5.7% barrel rate.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Braves are 43-13 in their last 56 road games against a team with a losing record. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Giants
