Christmas Day for baseball fans — also known as Opening Day — has arrived.
The Atlanta Braves take on the San Diego Padres at Petco Park in the afternoon in one of the day’s most anticipated games.
My Braves vs. Padres predictions don't expect too much offense with reigning NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale facing off against breakout star Michael King.
Read all about it in my MLB picks for Thursday, March 27.
Braves vs Padres prediction
My Braves vs Padres best bet: Under 7 (-120 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Chris Sale hadn’t reached 105 innings pitched in a season since 2019 when he posted an uncharacteristically high 4.40 ERA. Injuries turned the southpaw from a star to an afterthought heading into 2024, but he rebounded spectacularly, taking home the NL Cy Young after posting an 18-3 record with a 2.38 ERA and 225 strikeouts.
Health permitting, Sale is poised to continue his deadly effective dealing in 2025. His metrics were superb a year ago, ranking in the 92nd percentile or higher in xERA, average exit velocity, chase rate, K-rate, and hard-hit rate.
He matches up with a San Diego Padres lineup slightly below league average with a .302 wOBA and 97 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers a year ago. They avoided punchouts (17.2% K-rate) better than anyone but hit for little power (.141 ISO) and will be trotting out a similar lineup in 2025.
San Diego pitcher Michael King made a few transitions last year, going from New York to Southern California and from the bullpen to the rotation. The experiment went better than anticipated as he finished with a 2.95 ERA across 173 2/3 innings.
King was superb at suppressing contact, posting a 99th-percentile average exit velocity and a 97th-percentile hard-hit rate. He pairs this with strong swing-and-miss stuff (27.7% K-rate), giving him a strong projection in 2025, leading an injured Padres rotation.
The Boston College product only got stronger as the season went along, sporting a 2.07 ERA and 2.54 FIP from July onward. He’ll be at home with the weather calling for 10 to 11 mph winds blowing in toward the first base side.
The Atlanta Braves' lineup fell apart a year ago with a .308 wOBA and 96 wRC+ against RHP. Sean Murphy and Ronald Acuna Jr. will start the season on the IL, and the bottom third of the lineup will look bereft of impact bats.
Both teams project to have quality bullpens, and they should be well rested given that it's opening day. Give me the Under.
Braves vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Michael King Over 5.5 strikeouts
Chris Sale Over 5.5 strikeouts
Under 7
I like the odds on both pitchers’ respective strikeout props. King faces a Braves lineup with a 23.9% K-rate against RHP a year ago, and he notched 12 punchouts against them in October.
Sale’s strikeout prop is decreased against a Padres lineup that refused to strikeout against lefties a year ago. Still, it’s too low for a pitcher with a 32.1% K-rate in 2024. San Diego lost Jurickson Profar (to the Braves) and his microscopic 9.7% K-rate against southpaws, so its overall numbers against lefties should be a bit different in 2025.
Opening Day can be a difficult handicap because sometimes starting pitchers have a shorter leash than usual. Those concerns are mitigated for both teams — San Diego has numerous pitching injuries and could use King to be an innings eater, while Sale is full steam ahead as a dominant ace.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Padres odds
Braves vs Padres live odds
Braves vs Padres opening odds
- Moneyline: Atlanta -110 | San Diego -110
- Run line: Atlanta -1.5 (+145) | San Diego +1.5 (-180)
- Over/Under: Over 7 | Under 7
Braves vs Padres trend
These teams are 3-8 O/U in their last 11 meetings at Petco Park. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Padres.
How to watch Braves vs Padres and game info
| Location | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date | Thursday, 3-27-2025 |
| First pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN Southeast, Padres TV |
| Braves starting pitcher | Chris Sale (2024: 18-3, 2.38 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | Michael King (2024: 13-9, 2.95 ERA) |
Braves vs Padres latest injuries
Braves vs Padres weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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