It’s the last day of regularly scheduled baseball before play halts for the All-Star break. One of the afternoon games on tap pits the Atlanta Braves against the San Diego Padres for a deciding Game 3 of their weekend series.
Padres starter Randy Vasquez has some worrying splits against left-handed batters, so see which Braves bat I’m targeting in my Braves vs. Padres prediction and MLB picks below.
Braves vs Padres prediction
My best bet
Jarred Kelenic Over 1.5 total bases (+115 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Randy Vasquez was supposed to start Friday’s game against the Atlanta Braves, but manager Mike Shildt opted to move up Matt Waldron and throw Vasquez on Sunday instead. It was a shame from a handicapping perspective as I was chomping at the bit to fade Vasquez in the player prop market.
The 25-year-old pitches to contact with a fifth percentile strikeout rate (14.8%) and a 12th percentile whiff rate (19.7%) with a respectable 5.5% walk rate. That’s all fine and dandy if you’re suppressing hits with the contact you’re allowing, but Vasquez ranks in the first percentile in xBA (.326). That’s not what you’d like to see.
Add everything up and the result is an unseemly 6.32 xERA. He’s been fortunate to only allow a 4.66 ERA so far, just as he was fortunate in his rookie season a year ago when his 2.87 ERA was belied by a 5.37 xERA.
The most glaring part about the youngster’s profile is that he simply cannot get out left-handed bats with regularity. His line against lefties is so bad it defies belief: .431 BA, 7.31 FIP, 2.48 WHIP, 8.1% K rate, and 7.2% walk rate.
Atlanta has been very poor against RHP lately (81 wRC+, .286 wOBA across the last 15 days) but does have one left-handed bat who stands out as an exception. Leadoff man Jarred Kelenic has a 113 wRC+, .332 wOBA, and .186 ISO against RHP. He’s collected 21 of his 24 extra-base hits against righties.
The books are offering plus money on Kelenic to exceed 1.5 total bases and that’s my favorite player prop on the board. Vasquez’s splits against left-handed hitters are too poor to ignore and Kelenic hits RHP well while featuring at the top of the lineup.
Braves vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Jarred Kelenic Over 1.5 total bases
Chris Sale Under 7.5 strikeouts
Under 7.5
Chris Sale is forgoing a chance to pitch in this year’s All-Star game by making his scheduled start today. He’s been one of the league’s most dominant aces and ranks in the 94th percentile or above in xERA (2.61), average exit velocity (85.9 mph), chase rate (34.6%), and K rate (33%).
The catch? San Diego simply refuses to strike out against LHP with an unthinkably low 13.9% K rate across the last 20 days. The Padres have been doling out some damage against southpaws, too, with a 133 wRC+ and .353 wOBA in that time span.
The third leg of this SGP may seem counterintuitive to the first two — I’m playing the full game Under. The reasoning? Atlanta is just 17-28 O/U on the road and has been pitiful against RHP lately, and Sale has allowed no more than two earned runs in seven straight starts.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Padres odds
Braves vs Padres live odds
Braves vs Padres opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta -1.5 (-110) | San Diego +1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Atlanta -180 | San Diego +150
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Braves vs Padres spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Braves are 5-1 in Chris Sale’s last six starts. San Diego has also been a winning team with Vasquez on the mound, going 4-1 in his last five starts
- Atlanta has been an Under team at 33-56 O/U this year.
- The teams have combined to go 1-7 O/U in their last eight meetings at Petco Park.
Braves vs Padres trend
Randy Vasquez has allowed two or more opposing left-handed batters to reach 2+ total bases in each of his last five starts. Opponents have averaged 3.0 left-handed bats recording multiple bases in that span. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Padres.
Braves vs Padres game info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, 7-14-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Southeast, SDPA |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Chris Sale (12-3, 2.74 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Randy Vasquez (2-4, 4.66 ERA) |
Braves vs Padres latest injuries
Braves vs Padres weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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