Aaron Nola looks to become the all-time wins leader at Citizens Bank Park as the Philadelphia Phillies host the Atlanta Braves for Sunday Night Baseball.
Will Nola get the job done with the world watching, and what MLB player props are looking good on the odds board?
Braves vs Phillies Sunday Night Baseball props
- Schwellenbach Under 6.5 strikeouts (-118 at FanDuel)
- Nola Over 18.5 outs (+145 at BetMGM)
- Harper Over 1.5 total bases (+105 at bet365)
Picks made on 9-1 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Braves vs Phillies SNB props
Prop bet #1: Spencer Schwellenbach Under 6.5 strikeouts
Spencer Schwellenbach has been a rookie sensation for the Atlanta Braves, posting a solid 3.72 ERA, 3.04 xERA, and 3.12 FIP with some strong underlying metrics. It’s impressive for anyone to rank in the 88th percentile or above in strikeout rate, chase rate, walk rate, and barrel rate — let alone a 24-year-old.
He's been on fire in the strikeout department, exceeding his strikeout prop in nine of his last 10 starts while racking up 7+ punchouts in seven straight. It would be asinine to consider the Under on his Ks prop for Sunday Night Baseball, right?
Well, call me whatever names you please, but I’m taking the Under 6.5.
That being said, several factors are working against him in this spot. The combination of them all has me more bearish on his prospects than one would expect for someone who's been dazzling.
After hitting so many Overs in a row, I view this as a sell-high spot on this prop. He’s thrown past the sixth inning just once in his last four starts and the leading projection system THE BAT X projects him for just 83 pitches in tonight’s contest.
The weather isn’t favorable to pitchers as it’ll be a warm evening (80 degrees) with 5-6 mph winds blowing out to right field. There will also be a hitter-friendly umpire behind the plate in Edwin Moscoso, with Schwellenbach on the road against a tough Philadelphia Phillies lineup.
Prop bet #2: Aaron Nola Over 18.5 outs
Aaron Nola looks to make history as he could become the all-time wins leader at Citizens Bank Park on Sunday.
Some of those factors like weather and the umpire might also be working against Nola in this spot. That being said, the list of factors is shorter — it ends there in my opinion — and there are reasons to expect a strong outing from the veteran.
Atlanta has been overrated at the plate this season, especially against right-handed pitching (94 wRC+ and .306 wOBA). Not much has changed lately at the rank 17th in wRC+ and 16th in wOBA against righties over the last 15 days — not quite as bad, but still unimpressive.
He's a workhorse who's topped 100 pitches in each of his last three starts. He’s gone past the sixth inning in six of his last nine home starts, making his outs recorded prop at 18.5 with plus money on the Over an appealing target.
It becomes even more intriguing when you consider the three teams that caused him to fall short of this mark rank No. 1 (Yankees), No. 2 (Padres), and No. 3 (Dodgers) in wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
The Braves are not of a similar caliber to those opponents and therefore, I’m jumping at the plus money on Nola to continue cruising at home. He can become the all-time wins leader at Citizens Bank Park if he can pick one up Sunday, so I’m expecting a motivated and inspired effort.
Prop bet #3: Bryce Harper Over 1.5 total bases
Schwellenbach has been nearly unhittable against righties but has been more vulnerable to lefties, allowing a .253 BA, 1.26 WHIP, and 3.88 xFIP. Not terrible numbers, but nothing like the insanity he’s putting up against righties (.197 BA, 0.85 WHIP, 2.20 xFIP).
One thing that stands out in his splits is that he punches out far fewer lefties — his strikeout rate plummets to 23.1% against them, down from 35.6% against righties. He also walks more of them (6.7% compared to 3.1%), helping paint the picture that the right left-handed bat can take advantage of his offerings.
Bryce Harper stands to benefit as one of the main holes in his game is that he swings and misses more than your average Joe. That concern is mitigated by Schwellenbach’s splits.
Harper has been a soul-crusher at Citizens Bank Park this season with a 161 wRC+ and .404 wOBA. His strikeout rate drops from 25% on the road to 18.4% at home, further evidence that he may be able to put the ball in play.
If he does make contact, look out — it’s a warm day with winds blowing out to right field and there’s a hitter-friendly ump behind the plate to aid his cause.
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