Brewers vs Braves NLDS Game 3 Picks and Predictions: Peralta Gives Brewers Game 3 Edge

The Atlanta Braves head home for Game 3 of their NLDS series against the Milwaukee Brewers with the series all tied up at one game apiece.

These squads split the first two games of the best-of-five series and oddsmakers are expecting another close matchup, with MLB betting lines installing the Braves as slim -120 home favorites. 

Here are our best free Brewers vs. Braves picks and predictions for Monday, October 11, with the first pitch scheduled for 1:07 p.m. ET. 

Brewers vs Braves odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Brewers vs Braves picks

• Milwaukee (+100)
• Under 8 (-115)

Picks made on 10/10/2021 at 4:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Brewers vs Braves game info

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Monday, October 11, 2021
• Time: 1:07 p.m. ET
• TV: TBS

Brewers vs Braves betting preview

Starting pitchers

Freddy Peralta (10-5, 2.81 ERA): The 25-year-old had an outstanding season for Milwaukee, pitching to a 0.97 WHIP with 195 strikeouts through 144 1-3 innings. However, he seemed to hit a wall towards the end of the season, posting a 5.40 ERA over his final six starts. He hasn't pitched since September 26, with Brewers bench boss Craig Counsell choosing to rest him down the stretch. 

Ian Anderson (9-5, 3.58 ERA): The 23-year-old was solid in his sophomore season with Atlanta, registering a 1.24 WHIP and holding opponents to a batting average of .221 through 25 starts. Anderson has a 3.61 ERA in six starts since coming off the IL in late August and allowed two runs on three hits across six innings in his last outing. 

Brewers vs Braves series odds

Brewers: -120
Braves: +100

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Brewers: John Curtiss RP (Out).
Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr. OF (Out), Marcell Ozuna OF (Out).

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 5-1 in the Braves' last six games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Braves.

Brewers vs Braves predictions

Milwaukee (+100)

The Brewers won a pitcher's duel in Game 1 before getting blanked 3-0 on Saturday. Now they head to Atlanta for a pivotal Game 3 showdown. 

Counsell waited until late Sunday afternoon to announce that Peralta would get the start in Game 3, which might be a bit of a surprise given how terrific the fireballer was for most of the year. Peralta struggled over his final six starts when he played the red-hot Cardinals three times and was roughed up each time. That said, his larger body of work points to a pitcher that will soon be a Cy Young candidate, and the two weeks off should help him refocus. 

In 2020, Peralta added a biting slider to his already dangerous four-seam fastball and curveball and the results have been evident. Beyond the impressive surface stats, the analytics suggest he's the real deal as well, with the right-hander boasting one of the highest whiff rates in the majors and having the fifth-lowest hard-hit percentage. 

That's an ideal matchup for him as he faces off against an Atlanta lineup that hits hard but also ranks just 25th in the majors in whiff rate. 

The Braves will respond with a young gun of their own in Ian Anderson. The right-hander has looked sharp this season but hasn't been anywhere near as dominant as Peralta. Anderson's biggest issue has always been control, and while the Brewers lineup isn't great, they are disciplined at the plate.

In what should be another pitcher's duel, we're backing the side with the superior starter.

Under 8 (-115)

The Braves were one of the most productive hitting teams in the NL during the regular season, but postseason baseball is another matter entirely. We've seen that in the first two games of this series with a total of just six runs scored. 

Both of these starters faced off against the other squad's earlier this season, and the advantage was clearly in favor of the pitchers. Anderson went up against the Brewers on May 15 and allowed just two hits and one across six innings. The next day, Peralta pitched six innings of shutout ball against the Braves, limiting them to just a pair of hits. 

With the Under going 5-1 in Atlanta's last six games, back it again with the sky-high stakes in Game 3. 

Where can I bet on MLB odds?

You can bet on MLB odds at every online and casino sportsbook, including MLB moneylines, runlines, Over/Under totals, and a ton of MLB prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on MLB odds in your area.

Pages related to this topic