We have the first matchup of this four-game series with the NL West’s Arizona Diamondbacks hosting the NL Central’s Milwaukee Brewers. Two outstanding pitchers are slated to take the mound in what could be a low-scoring showdown.
Will the pitching live up to expectations, or can these offenses produce? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Brewers vs Diamondbacks on Thursday, September 1.
Brewers vs Diamondbacks odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Brewers were unveiled as consensus –135 favorites on Thursday morning and have stayed at that price with the opening total at 7.5, which is where it remains.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Brewers vs Diamondbacks predictions
- Prediction: Brewers ML (-130)
- Prediction: Under 7.5 (-114)
- Best bet: Woodruff Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (+105)
Picks made on 9/1/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Brewers vs Diamondbacks game info
• Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
• Date: Thursday, September 1, 2022
• First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
• TV: ATTP, Baly Sports Wisconsin
Brewers vs Diamondbacks betting preview
Starting pitchers
Brandon Woodruff (9-3, 3.31 ERA): Making his 21st start of the season, the right-hander will look to continue his strong campaign. Not only has Woodruff had another good year, but he enters this game in particularly good form. Over his last seven starts, he is 2-0 with a 2.34 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Woodruff does an excellent job utilizing all five of his pitches, four of which boast a .240 or lower expected batting average against.
Merrill Kelly (11-5, 2.97 ERA): Over his last eight starts, Kelly is 3-0 with a 2.19 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Possessing a diverse five-pitch arsenal, he does a great job mixing his pitches and keeping hitters honest with his unpredictability.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Brandon Woodruff has allowed four or fewer hits in eight of his last 12 starts (67%). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Diamondbacks
Brewers vs Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Milwaukee Brewers enter this game in good form, winning four of their last five. We should expect this trend to continue with right-hander Brandon Woodruff slated to take the mound.
Through 20 starts this season, Woodruff is 9-3 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.13 WHIP and has been particularly strong of late.
We should not expect any regression from Woodruff based on his metrics. This year, he boasts a .287 xwOBA, .220 xBA, and .362 xSLG.
This strong play should continue against Arizona. Through his two starts against the Diamondbacks last season, Woodruff went 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.
Following Woodruff is a solid relief staff. Since August 1, the Brewers’ relief pitching ranks 10th in the league in WHIP, 10th in BA, and 12th in xFIP.
While Milwaukee did use three relievers in yesterday’s game against the Pirates, they still have a couple of their best arms (Devin Williams and Matt Bush) available for this contest. We are getting some value in Milwaukee at such a low price, which is mainly due to how great Kelly has been for the Diamondbacks.
That being said, catching this low of a price when Woodruff is on the mound against a team he has dominated is too good to pass up.
Prediction: Brewers moneyline (-130 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
While the Brewers pitching staff should shut the Diamondbacks down, their lineup may struggle to generate runs against Kelly.
We should not expect any regression from Kelly, whose metrics are strong, boasting a .279 xwOBA, .220 xBA, and .346 xSLG for the season.
This strong pitching should continue against Milwaukee, a team that Kelly pitched well against last season. Across his last two starts against the Brewers, Kelly is 1-0 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.
Through 62 career plate appearances against Kelly, this current Milwaukee roster possesses a .250 batting average, .375 SLG, and .306 xwOBA.
We are getting a generous number on the total because each lineup has been solid against right-handed pitching this season. However, these are two great starting pitchers taking the mound who have each had success against tonight’s opponent.
Through their previous 10 meetings, the Under is 8-2.
Prediction: Under 7.5 (-114 at Unibet)
Best bet
With all that being said, we can find better bets than the Brewers moneyline because Kelly has been dealing on the mound and I could see him shutting Milwaukee's bats down. I am also not confident enough to take the Under due to the fact that Arizona possesses one of the worst bullpens in the league.
The one play I am most confident in is for Milwaukee’s right-hander to continue to see success. Allowing four or fewer hits in eight of his last 12 starts (67%), we should expect Woodruff’s strong pitching to continue against the Diamondbacks.
Looking at the projected starting lineup for Arizona, five of the nine hitters possess an xBA south of .250. Considering Woodruff holds opposing hitters to an xBA of .220 this season, I expect another dominating performance.
Pick: Brandon Woodruff Under 4.5 hits allowed (+105 at DraftKings)
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