Brewers vs Dodgers Picks and Predictions: Cy Young Contenders Collide in LA

We have the second matchup of this three-game series with the NL West’s Los Angeles Dodgers hosting the NL Central’s Milwaukee Brewers. This game is the sixth meeting between these two clubs this season, with the Brewers winning three of the first five matchups.

Will the Dodgers take care of business as a home favorite, or can the Brewers pull off the upset once again on the road? 

Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Brewers vs. Dodgers on Tuesday, August 23.

Brewers vs Dodgers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Dodgers were unveiled as consensus -140 favorites on Monday morning and have since been bet up to -150. The consensus opening total was unveiled at 7 and has stayed at that number.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Brewers vs Dodgers predictions

• Prediction: Dodgers -1.5 (+152)
• Prediction: Under 7 (+100)
• Best bet: Gonsolin Under 4.5 hits allowed (+105)

Picks made on 8/23/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Brewers vs Dodgers game info

• Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Tuesday, August 23, 2022
• First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Wisconsin, SportsNet LA

Brewers vs Dodgers betting preview

Starting pitchers

Corbin Burnes (9-5, 2.48 ERA): Burnes is coming off a start against Los Angeles, a game in which he allowed three runs on six hits through five and 2-3 innings. While that is a decent outing for most pitchers, it is poor by Burnes’ standards. The good news for Milwaukee is that Burnes rarely ever has back-to-back poor starts. We have seen this time and again this year, with bounce-back performances against the Reds, Pirates, Phillies, and Padres already.

Tony Gonsolin (15-1, 2.12 ERA): Over his last three starts, Gonsolin is 3-0 with a 0.48 ERA and 0.66 WHIP. One of those starts came against Milwaukee, an outing in which he absolutely dominated them. Throwing seven shutout frames while striking out eight, Gonsolin will look to repeat that performance.

Weather

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Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Tony Gonsolin has allowed four or fewer hits in 17 of his 22 starts this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Dodgers

Brewers vs Dodgers picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Run line analysis

The Los Angeles Dodgers will look to continue their monstrous season. Entering this contest, the Dodgers have won 17 of their last 21 games.

Of those 17 wins, 15 have come by at least a two-run margin, and I expect these trends to continue with right-hander Tony Gonsolin slated to take the mound for Los Angeles.

This season, Gonsolin is 15-1 with a 2.12 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. We should not expect regression from Gonsolin, who boasts a .272 xwOBA, .214 xBA, and .337 xSLG, and enters this game in tremendous form.

Throwing multiple pitches with high whiff percentages this year, the Brewers lineup may struggle to make contact. When facing right-handers this season, Milwaukee ranks 16th in the league in BA.

Following Gonsolin is one of the best bullpens in baseball. Since July 1, Los Angeles’ relief pitching ranks third in the league in ERA, first in WHIP, first in BA, third in SLG, first in wOBA, and seventh in FIP. 

While the Dodgers utilized three relief pitchers in yesterday’s game, they still have a couple of great options in the pen, including Evan Phillips and Caleb Ferguson. Those two arms should be enough to close this game out, especially considering that Gonsolin will most likely go at least six innings.

Prediction: Dodgers -1.5 (+152 at WynnBET)

Over/Under analysis

While the Dodgers pitching staff should shut the Brewers down, their lineup may struggle to generate runs against right-hander Corbin Burnes, who’s having another Cy Young-worthy season.

We should expect this trend to continue against Los Angeles, a team that Burnes pitched decently against last time out. While Burnes did not have his sharpest stuff that game, it was still a solid performance, and we should actually see some positive regression.

Across 62 career plate appearances against Milwaukee’s right-hander, this current Dodgers roster possesses a .235 xBA. We are getting a generous number on the total because of how powerful Los Angeles’ lineup is, but Burnes is on a short list of pitchers who we can routinely rely on regardless of opponent.

Add to the fact how poor of a matchup this is for Milwaukee as well, we could see the bats silenced in this contest. There have been seven or fewer total runs scored in three of the five meetings between these two teams this season.

Prediction: Under 7 (+100 at DraftKings)

Best bet

We can find better bets than the Dodgers’ run line, because Burnes has been outstanding, and I could see him shutting down Los Angeles. I am also not confident enough to take the Under, because the Dodgers’ offense can explode at any time.

The one play I am most confident in is for Tony Gonsolin to keep shutting down opponents on the mound. Allowing four or fewer hits in 17 of his 22 starts this season, we should expect Gonsolin to go Under this prop once again.

Milwaukee typically scores runs via the home run ball, and rarely goes on a large hit spree. Looking at the projected starting lineup for this game, we should expect more of the same as six of the nine hitters possess lower than a .235 xBA this season.

Going against one of the best pitchers in baseball, I have a hard time believing that the Brewers will rack up a bunch of hits.

Pick: Tony Gonsolin Under 4.5 hits allowed (+105 at DraftKings)

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