Brewers vs Phillies Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

The Milwaukee Brewers are cruising, winning five straight games with a sweep of the White Sox over the weekend, and they’ll attempt to keep the good times rolling when they head to the East Coast to take on the Philadelphia Phillies.

With Bryse Wilson struggling a bit more in the month of May, might we be seeing some regression setting in for the shaky righty? Is Zack Wheeler ticketed for a fourth straight dominant outing?

Let's get right my Brewers vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks on Monday, June 3.

Brewers vs Phillies prediction

My best bet
Phillies -0.5 first five (-135 at DraftKings)

My analysis
The Milwaukee Brewers haven’t been an offensive-minded team for several years now, but they’ve managed to piece together the third-best season to this point by the metrics. Even with that, however, they find themselves falling just a hair with a 109 wRC+ over the last two weeks which has been the product of a significant drop in Isolated Power all the way to .128.

Walks have been an issue for Zack Wheeler lately, and the Brewers have managed to walk at a high clip for the first couple of months, but he’s once again been one of the best around at suppressing power and owns a career-best .216 Expected Slugging Percentage which ranks inside the top 9% of the league. That’s vital any time you pitch in the hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park, but that goes double when you’re facing a team that has really been predicated on power this year. Mix in his strikeout prowess against a team that has struggled for contact and I think Wheeler’s in a great spot.

On the flip side, the Philadelphia Phillies have certainly been less than their best of late at the dish but have really enjoyed playing at home, where they’re a handsome 24-9 this year. They may be fresh off a tough loss in extra innings on Sunday Night Baseball, but a team that has had some issues with strikeouts all year – particularly in the last couple of weeks – should be ready to pounce on Bryse Wilson.

The Brewers righty has pitched to contact for his entire career, and aside from last season has done so quite poorly. His hard-hit rate is back up to 45.7% this season with a boisterous .445 xSLG which sits well higher than the league average, and with some issues creeping in in the walk department he should be minced meat against a team that hits for power and gets on base via the walk quite well.

I’m backing Wheeler and the Phillies to get out in front of Wilson quite early here, and avoiding a bullpen that has been worked to the bone lately.

Brewers vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)

Phillies moneyline

Phillies Over 4.5 runs

Wheeler Over 4.5 strikeouts

Harper Over 0.5 hits

+321 at FanDuel

This is a roundabout way to get to a good number on the SGP but without the First Five Innings available at most popular books we’ll have to get creative.

I know I said the Phillies’ bullpen has been overworked, but I do still feel strongly about them in this game given the offensive outlook for both. I’m looking to back a Phillies offense that was the hottest in baseball just a week and a half ago against a starter who’s owned some brutal peripheral numbers.

The hitter I’ve picked out is Bryce Harper, who has caught fire in the last four games with five hits in 17 at-bats. He’s been stronger against righties, and in his career against Wilson is 2-for-5 with a .373 Expected Batting Average.

Then, against a Brewers team that has struck out at a near-23% clip in the last two weeks, I’ll take Wheeler’s strikeouts. They own a disastrous strike rate as they’ve attempted to hunt some walks, and Wheeler has been at his best against teams such as these.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Brewers vs Phillies odds

Brewers vs Phillies live odds

Brewers vs Phillies opening odds

• Run line: Milwaukee +1.5 (-115) | Philadelphia +1.5 (-105)
• Moneyline: Milwaukee +190 | Philadelphia -210
• Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8

Brewers vs Phillies spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Phillies opened up as -210 favorites, and after a few moves towards -220 they’re back at -210 on Monday afternoon.
• The total was initially set at 8.5 runs, but a steady outpouring support for a low-scoring game has pushed the number to eight.
• DraftKings is reporting that while there’s been an even distribution of tickets between the Over and Under, the Under has taken on 57% of the money.
• Just 33% of the bets on the moneyline are on Milwaukee, but the Brewers have accounted for 60% of the handle.

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Brewers vs Phillies trend

The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 43 games (+16.90 Units / 30% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Phillies

Brewers vs Phillies game info

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