The NFL Week 11 schedule is packed with must-watch, must-wager matchups. But none of them are as big as the Kansas City Chiefs taking on the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
Not only do we have a heavyweight bout between two of the NFL’s top teams, but we get another chapter in the wild rivalry between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.
I rundown the spread, total, and player props for this important AFC affair and give my best Chiefs vs. Bills predictions and NFL picks for November 17.
Chiefs vs Bills prediction
Who will win?
This game opened with Kansas City as a slight -115 favorite on the moneyline, giving an implied win probability of 53.5%. But money on the Bills quickly pushed those odds over the fence.
As of Thursday, Buffalo is a -135 home favorite, which gives it an implied win probability of almost 57.5%. However, I agree with the initial opinion from the oddsmakers, especially with the injuries to the Bills’ receiving corps.
The Chiefs are 12-5 SU when pegged as an underdog since 2018 and Mahomes will get the best of a Bills defense that has been quietly giving up yardage during this five-game winning streak (20th in opponent success rate per play in that span).
Kansas City wins 24-20.
My best bet
Josh Allen longest rush Over 12.5 yards (+100 at BetMGM)
My analysis
If the Buffalo Bills are going to one-up the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, it’ll be because of Josh Allen.
Buffalo’s quarterback has stood toe-to-toe with Steve Spagnuolo’s defense in past meetings with Kansas City, and while his passing hasn’t always been sharp, he’s been able to do damage with his legs.
Allen, one of the finest dual-threat QBs in the NFL, has rushed for a total of 382 yards on 71 carries over his seven career clashes with K.C. (regular season and playoffs), picking up 5.3 yards per run.
He has broken off a run 13 or more yards in all but one of those seven matchups with the Chiefs, with longs of 16, 18, and 22 yards. His prop total for longest run in the Week 11 odds sits at 12.5 yards O/U with the Over priced at EVEN.
Given that success on the ground, Allen’s rushing markets are a hot commodity among NFL player props bettors this week, and we’ve seen his total yardage climb from as low as 30.5 yards to 35.5 since hitting the board on Tuesday. His longest run prop has also jumped from 11.5 (Over -130) to 12.5 (Over +100).
On the season, Allen is averaging just over 26 rushing yards per game and has posted runs of 13 or more yards six times — three of which have come in the last two games. His longest run props have bounced between 10.5 and 12.5 yards this season, with Allen going Over those numbers in just four of his 10 outings.
But as we’ve seen in past showdowns with the Chiefs, he’ll be prompted to tuck and run a lot against an aggressive attack which blitzes at a high clip and owns one of the best pressure rates per dropback in the NFL.
Adding to that need to make gains on the ground is a banged-up Bills’ receiving corps. Buffalo has already ruled out WR Keon Coleman, and both WR Amari Cooper and TE Dalton Kincaid are questionable heading into the weekend. On top of those injuries, Allen’s pass protection could have a hole with right guard Spencer Brown also a question mark.
Allen will get his number called for plenty of designed runs, but where he’s most dangerous is when passing plays break down and he has to improvise with his legs. Given Kansas City’s defensive fortitude and missing pieces in the pass game, Allen will be fighting to keep drives alive.
Chiefs vs Bills same-game parlay
Chiefs +2.5
Josh Allen 25+ rushing yards
Josh Allen anytime TD
The Chiefs have the better defense and with the Bills’ receiving corps dinged up, Kansas City gets the nod on offense as well.
Allen has rushed for an average of 54 yards per game in his seven matchups with Kansas City.
Allen will call his own number when it comes to the red zone, having rumbled for three touchdowns in the two games versus K.C. last year.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Chiefs vs Bills odds
Chiefs vs Bills live odds
Chiefs vs Bills opening odds
- Spread: Kansas City -1.5 | Buffalo +1.5
- Moneyline: Kansas City -115 | Buffalo -105
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 | Under 46.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Chiefs vs Bills spread and Over/Under analysis
- Kansas City opened as a 1.5-point road favorite at many books last Sunday night, but early action piled in on the Bills and quickly moved this spread to Buffalo -1.5. From there, respected play on Buffalo kept coming and pumped this spread to -2.5.
- As for the total, it opened at 46.5 points and has come down a tick to 46, with injury concerns on the Bills' offense anchoring this number.
- According to Covers Consensus, 60% of spread picks are taking Buffalo and 66% of total picks are siding with the Over.
Chiefs vs Bills betting trend to know
Kansas City is 12-5 SU and 13-3-1 ATS when pegged as an underdog since 2018. Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Bills.
Chiefs vs Bills game info
| Location: | Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-17-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Chiefs vs Bills latest injuries
Chiefs vs Bills weather
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