In what feels like the Cincinnati Bengals' fourth must-win game of the season, Joe Burrow will try to drag his team back from the brink for another week when they face the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday night. The Chargers, who are getting healthy, might be the fourth-best team in the AFC. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET at SoFi Stadium with the game airing on NBC.
With J.K. Dobbins slowing down as the season progresses my Bengals vs. Chargers predictions are all aboard the 'Gus Bus.'
Find out why in my NFL picks for Sunday, November 1.
Bengals vs Chargers SNF prediction
Who will win?
The Chargers enter Week 11 as a slight 1.5-point favorite but I have zero interest in taking the Bengals this week. They are coming off another disheartening loss to the Ravens despite Joe Burrow doing everything he can to keep this team alive. Unfortunately, his defense has not been putting in the same amount of effort as the Bengals are softer than Charmin on the defensive side.
Burrow has been balling out and I even bet him for MVP last week, but this Chargers’ defense is legit. The Bengals have allowed 96 points over the last three weeks while the Chargers have given up 85 points over their last six games and have allowed more than 17 just once this year. This might be the best defense in football.
If Burrow can’t move the ball, the Bengals stand zero chance Sunday night. Even if Tee Higgins comes back, the Chargers are healthy too and can run the ball all game with JK Dobbins and now Gus Edwards, who will be happy to renew his rivalry with the Bengals. This is a game between one of he worst defenses vs. one of the best.
My best bet
Gus Edwards anytime touchdown (+260 at bet365)
My analysis
Gus Edwards has been limited at practice this week which has kept his rushing markets sparse, but the bull-dozing back is just getting some rest after missing four games with an ankle injury but returning to the field last week in a great outing.
Against a good Tennessee defense, he was the most efficient Los Angeles Chargers' runner taking 10 carries for 55 yards while J.K. Dobbins went five yards fewer on five fewer carries. OC Greg Roman at Thursday’s presser told the media, “The Bus is back,” which is a good indicator of his role Sunday night.
#Chargers OC Greg Roman on Gus Edwards:
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) November 15, 2024
“I thought he played well. He was Gus. I really felt like that was the best he’s looked since he’s been back this year… Gus is back. The bus is back.” pic.twitter.com/3ezqKR87hD
That role could be more goal-line work as he took four of his 10 carries last week in the red zone and although he didn’t score, Sunday night could be a different story. The Chargers had the lowest neutral pass rate of all teams in Week 10 at 41% and get to run all over the Cincinnati Bengals who are a bottom-five run defense and also rank dead last in opponent neutral pass rate. Justin Herbert needed only 24 dropbacks last week and the Chargers' run game is going to be on display in Week 11
I love his Over 29.5 rushing yards but getting the likely goal-line back in an offense that is projected to score 24 points at +260 is a Sunday night bargain. Dobbins is averaging just 3.5 yards per game since Week 3 and the oft-injured smaller back could be wearing down in the late schedule. Get on the Bus!
Bengals vs Chargers SNF same-game parlay
Gus Edwards anytime TD
Chargers team total Over 23.5
Ja'Marr Chase 75+ receiving yards
Dobbins' workload is going to shrink as the season progresses and wears down giving more opportunities to Edwards, especially around the goal line. I wouldn't be surprised if the carry split was 60/40 in favor of Dobbins Sunday night with Edwards getting the short-yardage work again.
The Chargers' team total is an easy one to add here as the offense is getting healthier and the Bengals might have broken their spirits last week vs. Baltimore. This defense is giving up over 330 yards of offense per game over the last three games (96 points) and that mark is LOWER than their season average of 347.5 yards per game. It's a bad-coached team that has allowed 24 or more points in all but three games this year (Jacoby Brissett, Daniel Jones, and Deshaun Watson).
Ja'Marr Chase is coming off a monster Week 10 with 264 receiving yards but with the return of Tee Higgins, I'm not expecting crazy numbers, but his efficiency should be great. His yardage total is set at 74.5 yards and some likely negative game script should help.
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Bengals vs Chargers odds
Bengals vs Chargers live odds
Bengals vs Chargers opening odds
- Spread: Cincinnati +1.5 | Los Angeles -1.5
- Moneyline: Cincinnati +100 | Los Angeles -120
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 | Under 43.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Bengals vs Chargers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The biggest movement here has been with the total as it was 43.5 on November 5, reopened at 46, and moved all the way to as high as 48 where it met resistance. The Bengals getting Tee Higgins back will help this offense but the Chargers have allowed more than 17 points just once this year.
- The visitors will get one run-stopper back with the return of DT BJ Hill but Trey Hendrickson is still questionable so is starting LT Orlando Brown.
- On the season, the Bengals are 6-4 ATS and 7-3 O/U while the Chargers are 6-3 ATS and 2-7 O/U.
- This game could be slow if the Chargers have the ball as they ran the ball in a neutral context at the highest rate last week while the Bengals' opponents run the ball in a neutral context at the highest rate of all 32 teams.
- Our Covers Consensus tool is showing that 57% of users are taking the Bengals moneyline while 60% expect the game to go Over 48 points.
Bengals vs Chargers betting trend to know
The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.55 Units / 41% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Bengals vs. Chargers.
Bengals vs Chargers game info
| Location: | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-17, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
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