The Florida State Seminoles are off to a 0-3 start and are trying to salvage their season when they host the 3-0 California Golden Bears under the bright lights of Campbell Stadium.
The Seminoles' offense has been disappointing with senior transfer QB D.J. Uiagalelei under center, but he must have a big night for the Seminoles to end their three-game losing streak.
My California vs. Florida State predictions explain why we should expect Uiagalelei to have a big passing night with free college football picks for Saturday, September 21.
California vs Florida State prediction
My best bet
D.J. Uiagalelei Over 200.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Florida State Seminoles brought in senior transfer QB D.J. Uiagalelei to make big passing plays. So far, the big plays have been few and far between, and the Seminoles are off to their worst start (0-3) in years.
Uiagalelei has thrown for 8,900+ passing yards and 58 scoring strikes across his four-year collegiate career. That’s what the Seminoles were buying, but thus far, what they’ve gotten from the fifth-year transfer is inconsistent play with more interceptions (2) than TD passes (1).
Uiagalelei has struggled under the FSU system. His experienced offensive line has already surrendered eight sacks, and the Seminoles' offense has progressively worsened over the last three games.
Uiagalelei has big wideouts to throw to, and he should attempt 30+ passes against a physically smaller California Golden Bears secondary. The former Clemson Tigers signal-caller averages 11 yards per completion, and Cal allows just a shade under 11 yards per reception.
I expect Uiagalelei and the Seminoles' offense to get back on track at home on Saturday night. The Golden Bears allow 184 passing yards per game and surrendered 222 yards last week to the only team they’ve faced that throws the football.
Uiagalelei has cleared 201+ passing yards in his last two against much better defenses than what Cal puts on the gridiron. He’s close to getting benched, which only California wants, but that won’t happen on Saturday. I expect a much more focused Uiagalelei to be what the Seminoles paid for and for him to clear 201+ passing yards.
California vs Florida State same-game parlay (SGP)
Mike Benson 40+ receiving yards
Florida State moneyline
Over 44.5
Everything revolves around Uiagalelei. If he goes nuclear, and I believe he will, then Seminoles WR Malik Benson has a good chance to clear 40+ receiving yards, and FSU will beat California.
Benson is coming off 99 receiving yards last week to Memphis and has a good chance for another big night at home against a Cal secondary that allows nearly 11 yards per completion.
I’m rolling with FSU to win because I see the Seminoles outscoring the Golden Bears. The secondaries give up big passing plays, and I expect Uiagalelei and FSU to complete more big plays. If they do, they will win big.
The FSU linebacking corps has serious injury concerns, and the Golden Bears rushing game has scampered for five TDs and 158 yards per game. They’ll hang offensively with FSU long enough for this one to end Over the number.
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California vs Florida State odds
California vs Florida State live odds
California vs Florida State opening odds
- Spread: California +2.5 (-110) | Florida State -2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: California +120 | Florida State -130
- Over/Under: Over 45.0 (-110) | Under 45.0 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
California vs Florida State spread and Over/Under analysis
- California is 2-1-0 ATS this season, while Florida State is 0-3-0 ATS.
- California is 1-0-0 ATS as the underdog, while Florida State is 0-3-0 as the favorite this season.
- Over/Under markets have dipped off the 45 (-110) openers. Both teams are a combined 0-6-0 to the Under.
California vs Florida State betting trend to know
D.J. Uiagalelei has cleared 201 passing yards in two of his last three games. Find more college football betting trends for California vs Florida State.
California vs Florida State game info
| Location: | Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-21, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
California vs Florida State latest injuries
California vs Florida State weather
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