Cardinals vs Brewers Predictions, Picks, Odds: Montgomery Poised to Get the Hook Early

The St. Louis Cardinals will try to snap out of their early season slump when they visit the surging Milwaukee Brewers for an NL Central battle on Saturday.

The Brewers (6-1) have won six straight since dropping their opener, including a 4-0 shutout of St. Louis on Friday. The Cardinals (2-5) were swept by the Atlanta Braves before visiting Milwaukee, and have now dropped four straight.

One issue for the Cardinals has been a lack of length from their starting pitching. We’ll talk about whether that could change on Saturday in our free MLB picks and predictions for Cardinals vs. Brewers on Saturday, April 8.

Cardinals vs Brewers odds

Cardinals vs Brewers predictions

We’re only a week into the season, but so far, the Brewers are the hottest team in the National League. Milwaukee got blanked by the Chicago Cubs in their Opening Day matchup, but bounced back to win six straight, including a dominant sweep of the New York Mets.

The Brewers have been wearing out pitchers over this stretch. For the season, Milwaukee is scoring six runs per game on a .285 batting average and an .838 OPS. In four of their last five games, the Brewers have knocked out the opposing pitcher in five innings or less. Max Scherzer has been the only exception, and he made it just 5.1 innings against the Brewers on Tuesday.

That’s a trend that should worry the Cardinals. St. Louis has yet to record a quality start this season. Only once this year has a Cardinals pitcher even gone six innings.

It’s unlikely that this streak will end on Saturday. The Cardinals are sending Jordan Montgomery to the mound. Montgomery won in his first start of the year, going five innings in a 9-4 win over the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday.

However, Montgomery gave up three runs on six hits in those five innings of work, a bad sign against a Brewers lineup that has been raking this past week. And if the Cardinals are looking for length from their starters, it’s unlikely that Montgomery will provide it.

Over the course of his career, Montgomery has averaged just 5.22 innings per start. He was only slightly better last year, averaging 5.57 innings, a number that was bolstered slightly by his first career complete game.

If this was a midseason game, we might be saying it’s anyone’s guess whether Montgomery pitches into the sixth inning given those numbers. However, there are a couple factors at play that make it likely that he’ll be coming out sooner rather than later.

We’ve already talked about what the Brewers have been doing to opposing starters to knock them out of games early. But there’s also the fact that this is only the second start of the season for Montgomery, which means he’ll be on a shorter hook than were this game taking place in July or August.

I’m expecting Milwaukee to tee off on Montgomery, and for the Cardinals starter to be lucky to finish the fifth inning. With that in mind, I’m taking the Under on his outs recorded prop bet, which will need him to pitch into the sixth inning to hit the Over.

My best bet: Jordan Montgomery Under 15.5 outs recorded (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Cardinals vs Brewers moneyline analysis

The Cardinals opened tonight’s game as a -140 favorite over the Brewers. Money has continued to come in on St. Louis, with the consensus moneyline now close to Cardinals -160. Milwaukee is typically fetching +140 on the other side, though you can find numbers as good as +145 at some sportsbooks.

Given the recent form for both teams, and the fact that Milwaukee is playing at home, that number may feel surprising. The Brewers are also starting a capable pitcher in Eric Lauer, so let’s try to figure out why the market is so high on the Cardinals in this one.

First, we should remember that St. Louis came into the season projected to be a better team than the Brewers. Most pundits saw the Cardinals as the favorites to win the NL Central, and a few bad days to start the season isn’t going to flip those expectations in early April.

We also have to acknowledge that the Cardinals have feasted on left-handed pitching. Last season, St. Louis put up an .809 OPS against southpaws compared to a .728 against right-handed pitchers. This year’s lineup looks poised to put up similar platoon splits, which means the offense may be ready to break out against Lauer. Still, none of this makes me think the Brewers should be a clear underdog at home. I’m leaning towards backing Milwaukee at the nice plus number books are offering.

Cardinals vs Brewers Over/Under analysis

The total on tonight’s game opened at 8.5 runs. As of Saturday morning, that number had risen to nine runs flat at most books, though every site I looked at had the Under juiced to around -120 with the Over hovering near even money. I’ve already talked about how well the Milwaukee offense has performed to start the season. The Brewers have also benefitted from excellent pitching lately, posting shutouts in three of their past four games.

Similarly, the Cardinals have been playing a low-scoring brand of baseball to start the season. While St. Louis has lost four straight, they’ve also held their opponents to five runs or less in their last three games, and five times in their first seven contests of the year.

Both teams have played close to tonight’s total this year. Both teams have also gone above nine runs in three of their first seven games, with the Brewers having one game land right on that mark — a 9-0 blowout of the Mets on Tuesday.

My inclination here is to lean toward the Under, though I don’t love this bet. With a solid pitching matchup on tap, it’s likely that neither team will be off to the races early, and nine is a big number even in a year in which scoring is up.

Cardinals vs Brewers game info

Cardinals vs Brewers betting preview

Starting pitchers

Jordan Montgomery (1-0, 5.40 ERA): Montgomery came over to the Cardinals from the New York Yankees in a midseason trade last year, and has performed admirably in St. Louis. Last season, he went 6-3 with a 3.11 ERA in 11 regular season starts for the Cardinals, while also making a relief appearance in the playoffs. While Montgomery only averages 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings for his career, he has been good at preventing the longball in recent years, and has also showed better command, giving up just 1.8 walks per nine innings in 2022.

Eric Lauer (1-0, 3.38 ERA): Lauer has found himself a regular role in the Milwaukee rotation over the last two years, both of which have been solid campaigns for the lefty. The 27-year-old finished last season with an 11-7 record and a 3.69 ERA, while pitching to a 1.223 WHIP. Lauer notably has reverse platoon splits, faring better against righties than lefthanded batters throughout his career.

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The Brewers have knocked the opposing starting pitcher out of the game in five innings or less in four of their past five games. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Brewers

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