The St Louis Cardinals are the hottest team in baseball and took Game 1 of this five-game series by a score of 1-0 for their eighth consecutive victory.
The National League Central is heating up, and last night’s 1-0 win over Chicago gave St Louis an 8-4 season series edge. Can the Cubs find the right stuff to beat Wainwright? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for August 23, 2022.
Cardinals vs Cubs Game 1 odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
St. Louis opened as a large favorite of -179 and that number is anywhere from -188 to as low as -175. The total is 8.5 and is holding steady at the time of this writing.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Cardinals vs Cubs Game 1 predictions
Picks made on 8/23/2022 at 1:20 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the 2022 MLB season, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users can get a no-sweat first bet (up to $1,000) at FanDuel! Sign Up Now
B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Cardinals vs Cubs Game 1 game info
• Location: Wrigley Field, St. Louis, MO
• Date: Tuesday, August 23, 2022
• First pitch: 2:20 p.m. ET
• TV: MLB Network
Cardinals vs Cubs Game 1 betting preview
Starting pitchers
Adam Wainwright (9-8, 3.11 ERA): St Louis is 4-1 over Wainwright's last five starts. He’s allowed eight earned runs over his previous 34 innings and owns a seasonal 4.21 xERA alongside a 3.80 xFIP. His away 3.99 xFIP and 6.65 strikeouts per nine are a touch under those season totals.
Javier Assad (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Assad is making his MLB debut Tuesday afternoon. In 21 starts this season between Double-A and Triple-A, Assad is 5-3 with a combined ERA of just under 3.00 with a 4.09 xFIP. The young fireballer is striking out just over a batter per inning while allowing 0.91 homers per nine frames pitched.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Since 2020, the run line is 37-28 when St Louis is an away favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Cubs
Cardinals vs Cubs Game 1 picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
There's too much juice to play the Cardinals on the moneyline for this contest.
Wainwright has been their guy for years. He’s not the ace he once was but St. Louis is 4-2 this season when Wainwright makes the start as the away favorite.
In his last away start against Toronto, Wainwright struck out eight, and I expect him to have similar results Tuesday against the free-swinging Cubs. Chicago batters have struck out in 23.3% of their plate appearances vs. right-handed starters, which should benefit a pitcher like Wainwright, who doesn't overpower opponents.
Rookie Cubs righty Assad is making his big-league debut Tuesday, and he’s going to have his hands full dealing with the Cardinals offense. Even though the Cardinals are known for their dominance against left-handed pitching, they've been stronger against RHP than people may realize. St. Louis slashes .254/.324/.413 with the 26th lowest strikeout rate (20.7%) in the game and a 111 wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching.
Finally, this Cardinals bullpen might not be the best, but they aren’t far from it. Posting a team ERA of 3.70 with a third-best 47% ground-ball rate and eight strikeouts per nine isn’t anything to sneeze at. They usually finish whatever Wainwright leaves them with, and they’ll end Game 1 of this doubleheader with a victory.
Prediction: Cardinals moneyline (-175 at Coolbet)
Over/Under analysis
We’re likely to see some runs scored, and probably enough to exceed this afternoon's total.
Both clubs put runs on the board against right-handed pitching; St Louis has scored the third-most runs in baseball vs. righties (444) and Chicago has the 12th highest OPS in these matchups.
While we love Wainwright, he does surrender runs on account of how he pitches to contact, and we can’t expect him to completely shut down Chicago. His xFIP suggests at least four runs, and that should help move the number our way.
St. Louis is scoring an average of 5.33 runs through the last three frames in each of their last three contests and faces a Cubs bullpen with a 4.05 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, both of which rank in the bottom half of MLB.
Prediction: Over 8.5 (-109 at Circa)
Best bet
The Cardinals run line is your Best Bet for this contest.
We mentioned St. Louis is 4-2 this season when Wainwright pitches as the away favorite, but they are 4-2 on the run line as well and are 8-2 on the run line as away favorite with the seasoned hurler on the hill dating back to last season.
Finally, the Cardinals are 16-12 on the run line this season when on the board as the away favorite, and 37-28 in these same instances. I expect St. Louis to get the bats moving against Assad on Tuesday afternoon and win this contest by two runs or more.
Pick: Cardinals -1.5 (-109 at Circa)
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB Cardinals vs. Cubs picks, you could win $47.77 on a $10 bet?
Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
