The Arizona Diamondbacks are one of the best stories of the season, and they’ll be hoping to keep it up when they host the struggling Chicago Cubs on Friday. The Cubs are, however, coming off of a series win over the San Diego Padres, so they’ll be feeling pretty good coming into this one.
Which one of these teams will end up getting this series started on the right foot? You’ll want to keep reading our Cubs vs. Diamondbacks MLB picks and predictions to find out.
Cubs vs Diamondbacks odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This game has some of the evenest odds on the board tonight, as Chicago opened as a +104 underdog and is now going off between +100 and +114. The total, which opened at 8.5 here, is mostly at 8.5 still.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Cubs vs Diamondbacks predictions
- Prediction: Diamondbacks ML (-120)
- Prediction: Over 8.5 (-115)
- Best bet: Davies Over 3.5 strikeouts (-139)
Picks made on 5/13/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Cubs vs Diamondbacks game info
• Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
• Date: Friday, May 13, 2022
• First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
• TV: Apple TV+
Cubs vs Diamondbacks betting preview
Starting pitchers
Drew Smyly (1-3, 3.04 ERA): The Cubs brought Smyly in to be a veteran on a young team, and the lefty has been a somewhat stable presence in the rotation thus far. Smyly never goes out and dominates his opponent, but he eats innings and gives Chicago a chance to win games in which the offense shows up. He has allowed just six earned runs over 19 1-3 innings this year, and he should be able to give the Cubs five decent innings or so here.
Zach Davies (1-1, 3.34 ERA): Davies is off to a solid start in 2022, which is a good sign after he had the worst year of his career as a member of the Cubs last year. The righty will surely want to go out and pitch well against his former team, and it’s hard to say he won’t be able to do it. Over his last two starts, Davies has pitched 11 1-3 innings in which he hasn’t given up a single earned run.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Cubs: Nico Hoerner SS (Questionable), Seiya Suzuki OF (Questionable), Nick Madrigal 2B (Questionable), Sean Newcomb P (Out), Michael Hermosillo OF (Out), Marcus Stroman P (Out), Ethan Roberts P (Out), Clint Frazier OF (Out), Alec Mills P (Out), Andrelton Simmons SS (Out), Adbert Alzolay P (Out).
Diamondbacks: Carson Kelly C (Out), Luke Weaver P (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Diamondbacks are 6-2 in their last eight home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Diamondbacks
Cubs vs Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
After beginning the year 3-8, it looked as though we were getting the same Diamondbacks we’ve grown used to in recent seasons. However, the team is 14-7 since that dreadful start and has a great chance to pick up its 18th victory on Friday. Arizona is hosting a lousy Chicago team this weekend, and the Diamondbacks will get a crack at Smyly, one of the more beatable starters in baseball, right away.
The Diamondbacks do not have good numbers against lefties this season, but a lot of that can be chalked up to poor luck. Arizona has the lowest batting average in baseball on balls in play against southpaws this season, and that is just bound to change at some point soon. Meanwhile, Arizona is in the upper half of the league in isolated power against lefties. The team also did put up nine runs in a meeting with lefty Jesus Luzardo and the Miami Marlins just three days ago, so perhaps the batted ball luck is already starting to turn.
Even with Arizona being somewhat suspect against lefties at this point in the year, the team just has the better starter on the mound here. Davies is already off to a great start to the season, flashing the type of stuff that made him a success with both the Milwaukee Brewers and the San Diego Padres. In fact, the Cubs are the only team that Davies has really struggled with throughout his career, and he probably carries some resentment over that. That should have him eager to go out there and pitch well against his former team.
Davies is also coming off of his best start of the year, as he struck out six batters in 6 1-3 shutout innings against a solid Rockies offense.
Prediction: Diamondbacks moneyline (-120 at Unibet)
Over/Under analysis
In this type of game, it’s just really hard to lay off the Over. Smyly gave up three runs in just 4 1-3 innings of work last game, and he has now allowed nine runs over his last 14 innings. With that said, teams are doing some damage against him in limited innings, and he should get off to a rocky start against this Arizona team. Then, the Chicago bullpen will have to keep a red-hot Arizona team in check for an extended period. It’s just hard to bank on that, and Davies will likely allow a few runs too. The righty is more of a threat to turn in a quality start than to dominate an opponent, so even that would mean a few runs on the board for Chicago.
Overall, this just isn’t a high enough number to back off the Over in a game that lacks any true high-end starters on the mound. The Over is also 6-2 in Chicago’s last eight road games against right-handed starters and is 26-12-2 In the Diamondbacks last 40 home games against lefty starters.
Prediction: Over 8.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Best bet
Davies is coming off a start in which he struck out six batters in a 4-1 loss to the Colorado Rockies. With the righty having that many strikeouts against a Colorado offense that has the 18th-highest strikeout rate in MLB at 22.1%, it wouldn’t be all that surprising if he were to have a decent amount of Ks against a Chicago team that has the sixth-highest strikeout rate in the league at 25.3%.
The fact that Davies’ strikeout prop is only 3.5 here is also rather absurd. Four strikeouts really isn’t that many, especially for a guy that just had six in his last start. Overall, the value here is just too good with this total sitting so absurdly low. It might be a sweat with Davies not having crazy stuff, but it’s still worth taking.
Pick: Zach Davies Over 3.5 strikeouts (-139)
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