Dodgers vs Padres Picks and Predictions: Both Teams Continue Hitting Unders

The Los Angeles Dodgers are in unfamiliar territory, going just 3-3 across their last six games. Is it a sign that they are coasting to the finish line or is it simply too small of a sample size to give credence?

The San Diego Padres, on the other hand, have been taking care of business, winning seven of their last nine as they prepare for a playoff push.

Check out our MLB picks and predictions for the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres on Tuesday, September 27. 

Dodgers vs Padres best odds

Dodgers vs Padres picks and predictions

Tuesday’s meeting between the two top teams in the NL West is a matchup between two effective left-handed starting pitchers. Tyler Anderson is enjoying the best season of his career by a country mile. In seven seasons, this is the first time since his rookie year that his ERA has been below 4.30. His ERA this year (2.52) is a full run lower than that rookie showing (3.54) back in 2016, so it’s a breakout performance that few saw coming

Anderson pitched against the Padres on August 7 and had great success, allowing two hits across seven scoreless innings. San Diego hasn’t been anything special against left-handed pitching, ranking 17th in wOBA and 15th in wRC+ on the season. They have been better since the trade deadline (11th in both wOBA and wRC+) when they remade the lineup, but the numbers still aren’t eye-popping. Considering Anderson’s elite 3.6% barrel rate, I like his chances to limit damage in this spot by avoiding hard contact. 

Blake Snell’s peripheral numbers paint him as pitcher who hasn’t lost his stride one bit since his heyday. His 3.29 xERA and 2.77 FIP are both stellar, and his strikeout rate (32.2%) is elite per usual. He’s been pretty unlucky with a high .322 BABIP despite his low 4.3% barrel rate. 

The Dodgers have a great lineup by any definition, but they aren’t quite as fearsome against southpaws. In September, they rank 13th in wOBA and 11th in wRC+ against southpaws — not terrible, but a far cry from their usual placement atop many offensive leaderboards. 

Both teams have been profitable to back going Under the total this season. The Dodgers are 75-65-13 to the Under, while the Padres are 77-72-4. The Under is 10-4 in the Dodgers’ last 14 games overall and I look for that trend to continue on Tuesday night.

My best bet: Under 7.5 (+100 at DraftKings)

Dodgers vs Padres moneyline analysis

The odds for this matchup are closer than one might expect. Despite being the best team in baseball, the Dodgers are only a -120 favorite at most books, with the comeback on the Padres widely available at +100.

It’s possible that a lack of incentive is playing a part in that number. Everyone knows the Dodgers are a force that the rest of the league must reckon with, as their +322 run differential is outstanding. That being said, they’ve already locked up the No. 1 seed in the National League, so there isn’t a ton of motivation outside of posting as many wins as possible during this incredible season.

The Padres, meanwhile, sit 1.5 games ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies for the second wild card. This gives the Padres a three-game lead overall in their quest to secure a wild card spot, as the Milwaukee Brewers are in turn 1.5 games back of the Phillies for the third and final wild-card spot. The Padres must keep winning to ensure they secure a spot in the postseason. 

The Dodgers are 38-15 in the last 53 meetings in San Diego, dominating their NL West counterpart. 

On the other side of the coin, the Padres have been a fantastic bet coming off an added day of rest, going 15-2 in their last 17 games following an off day.

Dodgers vs Padres Over/Under analysis

Both pitchers have done a terrific job of limiting hard contact. Anderson’s 3.6% barrel rate is on an elite level, while Snell’s 4.3% isn’t far behind. 

Despite both being southpaws, the similarities pretty much end there. They get their job done in drastically different ways, as Anderson pitches to contact and limits walks while Snell strikes out a plentitude of batters and issues his fair share of free passes. 

For as big of a deal as it seemed at first, the Padres’ trade deadline acquisitions haven’t panned out quite as expected, especially with the absence of Fernando Tatis Jr. in the lineup. San Diego ranks 16th in wOBA and 15th in wRC+ during the month of September.  

The Under is 5-1 in the Padres’ last six Tuesday games and is 27-10-1 in the Dodgers’ last 38 games following an off day. The latter is a trend that I’ve been monitoring closely this season and playing at times, and I see no reason to not go back to the well.

Dodgers vs Padres trend to know

The Under is 27-10-1 in the Dodgers’ last 38 games following an off day. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Padres

Dodgers vs Padres game info

Starting pitchers

Tyler Anderson (15-4, 2.52 ERA): Anderson has been enjoying the best season of his career, posting a superb 2.52 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. His peripherals, while impressive, haven’t always matched the same level of dominance — he has a 3.10 xERA and 3.40 FIP. He doesn’t make many batters miss (18.8% strikeout rate) but counteracts that with a low 5.1% walk rate. 

Blake Snell (8-9, 3.62 ERA): There will be two southpaws on the mound Tuesday as Snell gets the nod for San Diego. He’s the opposite of Anderson in that his actual ERA (3.62) seems too high compared to his xERA (3.29) and FIP (2.77). He strikes out 32.2% of batters but per usual issues a lot of walks (9.5%). Considering his low 4.3% barrel rate, Snell’s overall profile is much better than his record and ERA indicate.

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