Good things come in pairs. Peanut butter and jelly, Hall and Oates, and for baseball fans, Friday’s Los Angeles Angels-Boston Red Sox doubleheader.
The division leaders will play the twin bill as part of a four-game series at Boston’s Fenway Park. As with any smart bet, however, wagering on a doubleheader requires a little extra digging. It's a situation that can be very profitable for bettors if you know what to look for before, during and after these games.
Who’s in? Who’s out?
The one thing you must know is each team’s Game 1 lineup, which comes out about an hour before the first pitch. So you might want to wait until the last minute to place your bet.
A club like Boston that has plenty of talent on the bench can afford to rest banged-up or veteran players during a doubleheader, giving the team completely different looks between Game 1 and Game 2. It’s not a smart move to blindly bet on Game 2 of a series without at least scouting Game 1, though odds might be available hours before game time.
“We treat doubleheaders as two single games, but it is a great opportunity for bettors if casinos don't take down the odds for the Game 2 when the first is going on,” says Las Vegas lines consultant Peter Korner.
“You know that during the doubleheader if there’s a team with a lot of veterans, there will be a split lineup,” says Korner. “It is a great spot for bettors that watch lineups closely to capitalize. I don't think books safeguard that situation too well.”
Los Angeles will likely rest some players in either Game 1 or Game 2 of Friday’s double bill. The Angels finish their series with the Toronto Blue Jays on Thursday then fly to Boston late Thursday night, with little down time before Friday’s 1:05 p.m. ET Game 1 start.
Catch up on your catchers
It’s rare to see a major league catcher play both games of a doubleheader, even with a day-night set like this Friday’s 1:05 and 7:05 p.m. ET starts.
“A catcher can impact a total in more ways than one,” says Scott Rickenbach. “Some guys don't call the game as well, so even if a catcher is a weak stick he might help the over by allowing the other team to score more if he causes his pitcher to have a poor game.”
Boston’s captain Jason Varitek should be out of the lineup for one of Friday’s games. The catcher is batting .269 on the season but has been clutch for the BoSox in recent games and has a five-game hit streak going into the series. His backup, Doug Mirabelli, is not the offensive threat that Varitek is, hitting just .204 in 108 at-bats this season.
The Angels are in a sticky situation behind the plate with catcher Mike Napoli currently on the 15-day disabled list. The team has relied on callup Ryan Budde, who has only played five big league games, and Jeff Mathis, who’s put in a lot of innings in the last three weeks. Mathis is only hitting .203 with seven RBIs in 74 at-bats this season.
Starting pitchers and bullpens
A doubleheader can chew through a bullpen like Prince Fielder at a post-game buffet. Bettors must definitely look at the Game 1 starters and how they have pitched in recent appearances. One bad start can suck the life out of a bullpen before Game 2 is even a thought.
“I like to back starters who I know will put in a quality effort,” says professional handicapper Ted Sevransky. “I would be hesitant to go with a guy who goes only four or five innings. Sometimes managers need to preserve the bullpen and those pitchers will go longer than they should.”
Los Angeles hands the ball to staff ace John Lackey for Game 1 on Friday and then gives the nod to right-hander Ervin Santana for Game 2.
Santana has only pitched six or more innings in two of his last five appearances, including an embarrassing three-inning effort against the New York Yankees on August 8. Lackey is the Angels’ best arm this season, putting in 17 quality starts with an ERA just above 3.00 and a record of 15-6.
The bullpen has performed well for L.A. this year. The relievers have a collective ERA of 3.90, getting 29 of its 31 saves from standout closer Francisco Rodriguez alone. The other two saves came courtesy of middle reliever Scot Shields.
“In a lot of doubleheaders, teams are forced to go with a pitcher that they don't really want to use,” says professional handicapper David Jones. “It jumps out a little more when a suspect pitcher is involved. You have to look at the bullpens in correlation with the starter.”
The Red Sox are in a similar situation, calling up Triple-A hurler Clay Buchholz for Game 1 in order to keep their rotation the same for the following games. The right-hander was 1-1 in six minor league starts with an ERA of 3.26.
There is a big question mark on how far manager Terry Francona will let the youngster go before he digs into his bullpen. At least the BoSox don’t have to worry about Game 2 starter Josh Beckett, who has 15 quality starts and has pitched eight innings in four of his last six appearances.
Boston’s bullpen is the best in the majors with a 2.98 collective ERA and goes deep with arms like Hideki Okajima, Eric Gagne, Mike Timlin, Jonathan Papelbon and others to provide plenty of support in the later innings.
Betting totals
With a mish-mash of lineups and some untested arms on the hill, playing the total in a doubleheader is difficult. The best advice sharps have to give is to bet each game independently of the other.
“It all comes down to the matchups and the particular settings,” says David Malinsky. “There can sometimes be misleading trends built up for Game 2 totals because they might reflect particular weaknesses of some matchups, like tired bullpens, that are simply not a case in others.”
Boston has played under in four of its last five games and posts a 55-63-2 over/under record this season. They also have a day off heading into Friday’s doubleheader while the Angels play Thursday night in Toronto. The Angels have played four straight unders heading into Thursday night and have a 53-58-7 over/under total on the year.
