The Milwaukee Brewers have won six of their last seven games and will now try to stay hot when they face a San Francisco Giants team that has won four of its last five. These teams are both clearly playoff contenders, and fans will be treated to a fun matchup this afternoon in Wisconsin.
Will Corbin Burnes end up leading Milwaukee to a victory over San Francisco? Continue reading our MLB betting picks and predictions.
Giants vs Brewers odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
It originally looked like Carlos Rodon was going to start this game for the Giants, but San Francisco is turning to Sam Long instead. That means the Brewers are huge favorites to win with Corbin Burnes getting the start, and the line opened at -198. By this writing, the Brewers are generally available at -200.
The total, which opened at 7, hasn’t moved much yet, but it is available at 7.5 at some books by late Monday morning.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Giants vs Brewers predictions
Picks made on 4/25/2022 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Giants vs Brewers game info
• Location: American Family Park, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Monday, April 25, 2022
• First pitch: 6:10 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC Bay Area, Bally Sports
Giants vs Brewers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Sam Long (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Long has appeared as both an opener and a reliever for the Giants this season. The lefty only pitched two innings against the Washington Nationals last game, throwing 31 pitches in two shutout innings. He has, however, allowed no runs to start the season, so he could excel in whatever his actual role is this evening.
Corbin Burnes (1-0, 2.37 ERA): Burnes struggled in allowing three earned runs over five innings in his Opening Day outing against the Chicago Cubs, but he has responded and looked like the stud he was last season in two starts since. The first of those games saw him shutting out the Baltimore Orioles over seven innings, and he had 10 strikeouts in seven innings of two-run ball against the Pittsburgh Pirates last time out.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Giants: Steven Duggar OF (Out), Anthony DeSclafani P (Out), LaMonte Wade Jr. OF (Out), Alex Cobb P (Out), Evan Longoria 3B (Out).
Brewers: Pedro Severino C (Out), Luis Urias 2B (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 19-7-3 in Milwaukee’s last 29 games against left-handed starters. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Brewers
Giants vs Brewers picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Oddly enough, these two teams are not playing a series against one another this week. This is a one-off showdown.
While the Brewers have the advantage with Corbin Burnes being the better starter, this matchup actually favors the Giants. Southpaw Sam Long, who has been rock-solid in limited action to start the season, gets to face a Brewers team that has the second-worst batting average in the league against left-handed pitching. Also, only three teams have scored fewer runs than Milwaukee against lefties this year, and it’s not just a matter of a small sample size. This Brewers team was also miserable against southpaws in 2021, so it just looks to be more of the same for this team.
The Giants are also built to hit right-handed pitching, as three of their first four hitters in the projected lineup are lefties. One of them is Brandon Crawford, who hit .319 with 18 homers and 63 RBI against righties last year. Two of the other three are Brandon Belt and Joc Pederson, who both happen to be 4-for-8 with a homer and two RBI against Burnes in their careers. Now, that’s definitely a small sample size, but not many hitters have even had that level of success against him.
San Francisco might not put up a huge number in this game, but the team can capitalize on Burnes’ mistakes. And if the Giants can even get two or so runs on him, that would be a massive help. Burnes is one of baseball's best pitchers, but he also hasn't faced stiff competition through three starts, so the Giants offense should pose more of a challenge.
The Brewers have a very good group of relief pitchers to support Burnes, but the Giants have the best bullpen ERA in the league. They’ll use every bit of it in this game, as Long — who has oscillated between reliever and opener — won’t be working deep. But if he can give San Francisco two or three solid innings, the team will feel great about its bullpen arms holding down the fort the rest of the way.
Overall, the value is just great on the Giants in this game, even in what is a lopsided matchup amongst the starters.
Prediction: Giants moneyline (+180 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
The Under has hit in nine of Milwaukee’s 16 games this season, and three contests have finished in a push on the total. This Brewers team has been winning games to start the year, but it has been doing so with its combination of good pitching and timely hitting.
It hasn’t exactly been a case of an explosive offense carrying Milwaukee, and it’s hard to see this group scoring too many runs against a San Francisco team that manages its arms as well as anyone throughout the course of a game.
On the flip side, the Giants should be able to scrape together a few runs against Burnes, but they’re similarly not going to put a big number on the board against the reigning NL Cy Young winner. The Giants have scored at least five runs in four of their last five games, but they haven’t faced a pitcher as good as Burnes in that stretch.
The Under also happens to be 9-4-1 in San Francisco’s last 14 games coming off a contest in which it scored five or more runs. So, this isn’t exactly the type of team to go out there and score a lot with regularity.
For good measure, the Under is also 19-7-3 in Milwaukee’s last 29 games against left-handed starters.
Prediction: Under 7 (+100 at BetRivers)
Best bet
Not only is Joc Pederson 4-for-8 in his brief history against Burnes, but the 30-year-old has started the season on a tear, batting .364 with five homers and eight RBI. He's predominantly been used as the cleanup hitter in the lineup but was penciled into the leadoff spot on Sunday for the first time this season.
San Francisco has a lot of trust in his ability at the plate, and the team is opting to prioritize getting him as many at-bats as possible.
Of course, it’s never easy to trust a player to go out and get a hit against a pitcher with Burnes’ ability to dominate, but somebody on the Giants is going to contribute in the batter’s box this evening. And with FanDuel offering Pederson to get a hit at -140 odds, it’s worth taking a shot on him being the one to do it.
He’s the most confident player in this Giants lineup coming into this game, as he has recorded five hits over his last two contests and has three multi-hit games in his last four.
Pick: Pederson Over 0.5 hits (-140 at FanDuel)
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