Giants vs Diamondbacks Predictions, Picks, Odds: Fading an Overvalued Alex Cobb

The San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks open up a four-game set tonight at Chase Field but it’s the 16-20 visitors sitting as decent -145 favorites tonight.

San Francisco starter Alex Cobb has been sensational to begin the season with a 2.01 ERA, but is he pitching above expectations and padding those numbers thanks to plenty of starts at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park?

Find out where my best Giants vs. Diamondbacks MLB betting picks lie below.

Giants vs Diamondbacks odds

Giants vs Diamondbacks predictions

San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Alex Cobb has made three road starts this season and has failed to record more than 15 outs in any of those games as his numbers are slightly padded from pitching at one of the best pitcher-friendly parks in Oracle Park. 

Today, he has a slight park downgrade in Chase Field and faces an underrated offense in the Arizona Diamondbacks who have the third-best wOBA to begin the season. First-glance bettors might see Cobb’s shiny 2.01 ERA and 1.24 WHIP but he is pitching above expectations as he owns a 3.77 xERA and THE BAT projects him as a 4.15 ERA pitcher this season. 

He’s also stranding 87.6% of his runners on base which is the fifth-highest rate in baseball among starters and a number that is likely to regress to the mean as his career rate was 70% entering the season. 

In his last road start, two starts ago, he went 15 outs on 94 pitches in San Diego, and four starts ago, he went 15 outs on 92 pitches in Miami. He’s also coming off a season-high 107 pitches in his last start and could have a shorter leash because of the heavier workload. He hasn’t thrown more than 153 innings over the last five seasons and is already at 40+ entering tonight.

The entire San Francisco bullpen is available today, as well, after swingman Tristan Beck ate 16 outs yesterday in an 11-6 loss to the Nationals. 

THE BAT is projecting 16.7 outs with bet365 hanging an Under 17.5 outs at +125 (opened at +130) which is implying roughly 18.3 outs — giving bettors over 1.5 total outs of expected value.

My best bet: Alex Cobb Under 17.5 outs (+125)

Giants vs Diamondbacks moneyline analysis

The Diamondbacks may lead San Francisco in the NL West by 3.5 games but it’s the Giants who enter tonight's series opener as a -145 road favorite. The starting pitching is weighed heavily into these odds as Alex Cobb is the better starter over lefty Tommy Henry, but Cobb might be overvalued in this spot — especially after shortening up 10 points from the opening line. 

The Giants opened as -130 road favorites at Pinnacle and have since moved to -137 while some books are as short as -150 with most places moving about 10 points toward the Giants from the opener. 

Cobb’s numbers have been great this season but it’s an unsustainable rate and has been supported by friendly home pitching conditions at Oracle Park among other things. I do think this underrated Arizona offense can get to the San Francisco starter who THE BAT projects to give up 2.68 earned runs on 6.23 hits over 5+ innings.

However, in saying that, I’m not running out to bet the Diamondbacks at +125 as Henry’s poor statistics have also come against some of the worst competition in baseball.

The Arizona lefty has given up eight runs and 17 hits with a 7:7 K/BB ratio over three starts and has faced the bottom of the barrel in terms of the quality of opponents in the Royals, Rockies, and Nationals.   

Both bullpens have also been tough to trust this year as each team sits in the Bottom 6 in reliever ERA and in the Bottom 10 in reliever FIP. This game could certainly see some lead changes if the Diamondbacks and their No. 6 scoring offense (No. 2 in average) can get to Cobb and dig into the Giants’ pen that ranks 27th in WAR. 

I’m leaning on the home side at +125 but think I still need a better price to back Henry who hasn’t been good vs. some awful opposition. 

Giants vs Diamondbacks Over/Under analysis

Chase Field might not be the best home run park on the circuit but that hasn’t stopped bettors from driving up this total from 9 to 9.5.

There is a lot to like in terms of potential runs in this game, including the inflated performance of Cobb, Henry’s bad numbers vs. equally bad competition, and two bullpens that are near the bottom of the league.

Arizona is also an undervalued offense that currently ranks third in the NL in wOBA and although it might not finish there come year-end, it’s hard to project them as anything below a league-average offense with all the young talent they possess. The Diamondbacks also steal bases at a high rate and face Cobb who has allowed 90% of his baserunners to successfully steal dating back to 2019. 

Despite missing the Over 9, if bettors can get the Over 9.5 at even money or better, I still think there is still some closing line value there. DraftKings and FanDuel have both moved to -110 aside and Pinnacle is still moving towards the Over at -103.

Giants vs Diamondbacks game info

Starting pitchers

Alex Cobb (2-1, 2.01 ERA): Cobb has been solid out of the gates and is coming off a scoreless seven-inning outing vs. the Brewers in his last start. He is, however, pitching at an unsustainable rate and has an xERA 1.71 points higher than his true ERA. Cobb is not a high strikeout pitcher and batters are hitting .273 against him, but it hasn’t been hard contact as he sits in the Bottom 12% in hard-hit percentage. The Giants are 4-3 SU over his seven starts this season. 

Tommy Henry (1-0, 5.17 ERA): Henry’s numbers aren’t great this season and he's faced some of the worst offenses in baseball. Despite that, his current ERA is better than THE BAT season projections, and with a 7:7 K/BB ratio through 15+ innings, he isn’t an intimidating starter that is projecting for 91 pitches and just over 15 outs recorded tonight. However, thanks to some run support and the Over going 3-0 in his three starts this season, the Diamondbacks are 3-0 SU in his starts this year.

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The Over is 7-1 in Henry’s last eight starts overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Diamondbacks

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