Two NL East rivals will begin a crucial three-game series that could determine the final National League wild-card spot as the Atlanta Braves host the New York Mets.
Both teams feel that this is a must-win series, and my Mets vs. Braves predictions are zeroing in on a low-scoring affair at Truist Park tonight.
Read more in my MLB picks for Tuesday, September 24.
Mets vs Braves prediction
My best bet
Under 8 (-105 at DraftKings)
My analysis
With just six games left in the regular season, there’s still plenty of drama in the National League wild-card race, and most of it comes down to this series between the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves.
Both teams need wins here, with Atlanta particularly desperate for a sweep — or, at the very least, a series win to keep them alive heading into the final weekend of the season.
Neither team is sending an ace to the mound tonight, but both starters are more than capable. The Mets are relying on veteran Luis Severino to take the ball on Monday. The 30-year-old righty is 11-6 with a 3.79 ERA this year, a reasonable enough line that fits in well with a New York rotation big on depth but light on star power.
In his last seven starts, Severino is 4-0 with a 2.64 ERA. He’s striking out more than a batter per inning during this period, far above the 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings he has averaged across the season.
Meanwhile, the Braves are turning to 24-year-old rookie Spencer Schwellenbach to secure a critical win. In 19 starts, Schwellenbach has gone 7-7 with a 3.61 ERA, posting an impressive 1.103 WHIP and a 3.32 FIP. His 5.36 strikeout-to-walk ratio is impressive for such a young pitcher and would rank in the Top 10 among MLB pitchers if he had enough innings to qualify for leaderboards.
Schwellenbach’s numbers have only improved as he has settled in at the major league level. In his last 10 outings, the right-hander has posted a 2.75 ERA while holding opponents to a .663 OPS in 59 innings of work.
New York and Atlanta have trended towards playing tight, low-scoring games against each other this season, and both pitchers are bearing down on opponents during the final months of the season. I expect more of the same tonight, and that’s why I’m backing the Under.
Mets vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8
Luis Severino 5+ strikeouts
Spencer Schwellenbach 5+ strikeouts
Since I’m expecting solid outings from both starters, I’m targeting both to hit modest alternate strikeout totals.
I’m taking Schwellenbach to pick up at least five strikeouts, something he’s done in nine of his last 11 starts. In addition, I’m backing Severino to hit that same five-strikeout target, which he has successfully cashed in each of his last nine starts.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Braves odds
Mets vs Braves live odds
Mets vs Braves opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -120 | Atlanta -140
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-190) | Atlanta -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-115) | Under 8 (-105)
Mets vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Mets have won about 12.5 units for bettors on the moneyline this year. The Braves have come up short for backers, losing about 18.5 units.
- New York is 15-15 when Severino takes the hill this year, while Atlanta has gone 9-10 in Schwellenbach’s starts.
- The Over has a 79-72 record in Mets games this season, but the Under has a 91-59 advantage when the Braves have played in 2024.
- New York is averaging a total of 9.09 runs per game, with Atlanta’s average total coming in at 8.17 runs.
Mets vs Braves trend
The Under is 5-2 in the last seven games between these two teams.
Mets vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 9-24-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNY, BSSO |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Luis Severino (11-6, 3.79 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Spencer Schwellenbach (7-7, 3.61 ERA) |
Mets vs Braves latest injuries
Mets vs Braves weather
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