The Baltimore Orioles and the New York Yankees will open a series this evening in the Bronx with plenty at stake.
New York can clinch the AL East divisional crown with its next win, and tonight's Orioles vs. Yankees predictions anticipate Juan Soto to play a role in getting that job done.
I dive deeper into Soto's matchup against Baltimore SP Dean Kremer in my MLB picks for Tuesday, September 24.
Orioles vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases (+160 at BetRivers)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
While I like the New York Yankees to win here, there's not much value in the number, which has forced me to the prop market, where I'll be targeting Juan Soto.
You're splitting hairs here between Soto and Aaron Judge because both are similar hitters with a good matchup. However, I made this price nearly a coin flip, a massive edge compared to what we see on Judge.
It's a small sample size, but Soto has been strong in seven plate appearances against Baltimore Orioles right-hander Dean Kremer, slugging over .700 with an RBI and a homer.
Kremer's biggest issue this season has been too many hits. Both his expected batting average and actual batting average are worse than the league average. Naturally, you like Soto's matchup against a pitcher who has given up 5+ hits in two of his last three starts.
If hits are an issue for Kremer, then barrel rate is the secondary issue. He ranks among the league's worst in such categories, coming in the bottom 15%. Soto has the third-best barrel rank among Yankees players, which places him in the top 15% of the league.
Kremer's fastball-heavy approach also helps inform our handicap as Soto ranks second in hard-hit rate, fourth in batting average, and second in slugging percentage against the offering.
Aaron Judge pick: TEASER
My best bet
Aaron Judge to hit a home run (+280 at bet365)
My analysis
It's a bit funny that taking Judge to go deep is now considered chalky, but that's what 55 homers in a season will do. Judge has homered in two straight games after New York's West Coast trip. I like him to make it three. He's owned Kremer in head-to-head matchups with four homers in 16 career plate appearances.
Kremer has a barrel problem, and he throws a lot of heaters, with the fastball making up nearly 60% of his arsenal. Judge is the best fastball hitter in the sport, and there are very few players barrelling more balls than he does. That translates into the ball traveling a very long distance when he makes contact.
Orioles vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Juan Soto 2+ total bases
Yankees moneyline
While the New York moneyline is mostly directly in line with numbers, a slight edge when pairing it with our best bet makes it playable. It's hard not to imagine New York getting to Kremer today. He succeeded in his last start against New York, but that came in a different space. The Yankees were slumping then and have been hitting on all cylinders. The Yankees have good barrel hitters in their lineup, and it's not just a few. I'll take my chances, given that's the primary struggle of the opposing pitcher tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Orioles vs Yankees odds
Orioles vs Yankees live odds
Orioles vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: Baltimore +135 | New York -160
- Run line: Baltimore +1.5 (-155) | New York -1.5 (+130)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)
Orioles vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Despite trailing them in the division, the Orioles hold a head-to-head advantage against the Yankees over the last 10 games, leading 6-4.
- The Under has been profitable in those matchups; it's gone that direction two of the last three and seven of 10.
- The Yankees have surged to end the season as winners of eight of their last 10, winning bettors just over three units.
- The Orioles have been on the opposite end of the spectrum, losing seven of their last 10, which has cost bettors nearly five units.
Orioles vs Yankees trend
The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 59 of their last 99 games (+17.75 Units / 16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Yankees.
Orioles vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, 9-24-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MASN, YES |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Dean Kremer (7-10, 4.19 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Clarke Schmidt (5-4, 2.37 ERA) |
Orioles vs Yankees latest injuries
Orioles vs Yankees weather
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