As the 2024 MLB season draws to a close, this, “we’re out of it but we’re fun” version of the Toronto Blue Jays seems to have petered out after losing six of their last seven games.
That includes dropping last night’s series opener to the Boston Red Sox by a score of 4-1 but oddsmakers like Toronto’s chances to break out of this slump by handing the ball to red-hot Bowden Francis, who is the focal point of my Red Sox vs. Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks for Tuesday, Aug. 24.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Under 4.5 First Five Innings (-139 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
There’s no denying that the Toronto Blue Jays have been a much better baseball team since the trade deadline, but recent play makes it seem like they are ready to turn their attention to 2025.
But Bowden Francis is still getting valuable experience down the stretch. It’s crazy to think that this is the same guy who was sent down to the minors after pitching to an 8.59 ERA in April.
Francis has arguably been the best starter in baseball for the last month and a half. The 28-year-old right-hander has a 1.67 ERA while limiting opponents to a.115 batting average and a .413 OPS over his last eight starts.
And it’s not like the Blue Jays are the only team in this matchup winding things down for 2024. The Boston Red Sox rank 23rd in batting average, 17th in OPS, and 22nd in wRC+ since the start of September and no longer have Rafael Devers in the lineup thanks to a season-ending shoulder injury.
The Red Sox counter Francis with right-hander Brayan Bello, who owns a 2.20 ERA over his last three starts. He’s also faced the Blue Jays as recently as August 28th when he threw a gem, hurling eight shutout innings on just two hits while striking out nine batters.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. aside, the Blue Jays lineup has also hit a late-season lull. Toronto ranks 11th in batting average, 20th in OPS, and 15th in wRC+ since the start of the month.
I’m betting this is a pitcher’s duel, at least early on. Let’s take the sketchy Blue Jays bullpen out of the equation and bet on this being a low-scoring game through the first five innings.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+162 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
I fear you guys are getting bored with me always throwing Guerrero in this section, but what's boring about finding value and winning bets?
And that’s what we keep getting when we bet Vladdy to go Over 0.5 RBI. Today, it’s priced in the +160 range, which makes this once again a five-star play, according to our Covers prop projections.
Vladdy is hitting .324 with a .946 OPS, 30 home runs, and 100 RBI. He posted an 0-fer in the game last night, but don’t expect that to be a new trend. The Blue Jays’ star first baseman was hitting .419 with a 1.083 OPS, two homers, and four RBI over his previous seven games.
Guerrero has also feasted in this matchup, going 9-for-22 with three doubles and two dingers in his career vs. Bello. That works out to a .327 expected batting average and a .717 expected slugging.
We're getting some value because Bello is pitching well, but that hasn’t mattered much to Vladdy this season. Back him to drive in another run tonight.
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Red Sox vs Blue Jays odds
Red Sox vs Blue Jays live odds
Red Sox vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Moneyline: Boston +115 | Toronto -135
- Run line: Boston +1.5 -190 | Toronto -1.5 +160
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Red Sox vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened -135 but early bettors have backed the road underdog and Toronto has dropped down to the -125 range.
- I'd lean toward the underdog value. The pitchers are close to a wash with both lineups taking a step back of late. It's the Red Sox edge in the bullpen where I see the value, ranking 18th in xFIP as opposed to 27th for the Blue Jays.
- The total hit the board at 7.5 and has been bet up to an even 8.0 as of early Tuesday afternoon.
- While I am betting the first five innings Under, those suspect bullpens make me uneasy when looking at the full-game total.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays trend
The Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 54 games for +5.60 Units and an 8% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Tuesday, 9-24-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, Sportsnet |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Brayan Bello (14-8, 4.49 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Bowden Francis (8-5, 3.47 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Red Sox vs Blue Jays weather
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