It didn’t seem as if the Los Angeles Dodgers were in danger of fumbling away the NL West just a week ago, but a sudden charge from the San Diego Padres has brought them to within three games of the division lead and has now put an incredible amount of importance on this week’s series in Southern California.
Our Padres vs. Dodgers predictions expect that lead to shrink even more tonight as a red-hot Michael King takes the hill for San Diego. Read more in my MLB picks below.
Padres vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Padres moneyline (+102 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Before the season, I feared Michael King would struggle with a full season in the rotation, perhaps picking up an injury. Now, I feel foolish.
King’s remained an excellent strikeout arm with 28% of opposing hitters going down on strikes, and since the start of July, his ERA is a sparkling 2.22. He’s pitched well in his home park in San Diego, inducing plenty of fly-outs, but it should be said he would have a fair shot of doing that anywhere with a ridiculous 30.2% hard-hit rate in the 98th percentile of the league and a solid 5.9% barrel rate.
He’s suppressed power and racked up punchouts around a minor concern in the walks department, but even then, he’s brought his rate of free passes down to 5.5% this month as he’s continued to shine with a .228 xBA and .329 xSLG.
This is a slightly precarious spot for the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have looked incredibly strong on offense over the last two weeks but still rely heavily upon walks and power, with a remarkable .259 ISO in that stretch. They’re also sporting a worse rank in OPS against fly-ball arms this season and have hit .245 in the split to .254 in the reverse.
King should have more than a fair chance to keep things up with the way he’s reeled in the walks and limited power, and behind him is a bullpen ranked fourth in September.
The Dodgers’ bullpen has lagged behind San Diego’s with a 4.44 ERA to rank 18th, putting the onus on Landon Knack to perform well here. While I’m a big fan in general, this might not be the spot to back Knack with a recent reliance on strikeouts against a Padres offense that has hardly punched out this season.
He’s as extreme as they come in the fly-ball department, which is a big deal here with the San Diego Padres sitting second in OPS to fly-ballers as opposed to 10th against ground-ballers and now entering a friendlier home run environment.
Knack’s made three starts this month since coming back up from Triple-A, and while he hasn’t surrendered a ton of expected hits, he’s yielded three home runs with a .453 xSLG overall. That leads me to believe the Padres will go for extra bases quite a few times here.
Back King and this wonderous bullpen to move the road team within another game in the division.
Shohei Ohtani pick: Shohei swings and misses
My best bet
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 strikeouts (+165 at BetMGM)
My analysis
No, Shohei Ohtani isn’t returning to the mound in this one; I’m backing his strikeout prop as a hitter.
King’s been on a strikeout bender with 21 punchouts in 18 innings this month after racking up 33 in 26 1/3 August innings, and with his chase and whiff rates remaining sky-high, I think the swing-happy Ohtani will have his seventh multi-strikeout night of the month and his sixth in the last 10 games. If King doesn’t get him twice, either, the Padres bullpen has produced a splendid 26.1% strikeout rate this month, too.
Padres vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Padres moneyline
Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 walks
Michael King Under 2.5 walks
We can’t get Ohtani’s strikeout prop into a same-game parlay that makes sense here, but the Under on his walks should work all the same.
He hasn’t walked in any of the 12 plate appearances he’s had against King, and he’s walked just once in his last six games. We noted that King’s had some walk issues this season with his clip nearing 9%, but he’s walked just 5.5% of batters this month and should avoid one here against Shohei.
I’ll also mix in the Under on King’s walks here, too, backing the recent trends we’ve seen. L.A. does make life difficult on opposing pitchers with its patience, but just two of the last six starters to face this team have gone Over 2.5 walks while King hasn’t done so once this month.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Padres vs Dodgers odds
Padres vs Dodgers live odds
Padres vs Dodgers opening odds
- Moneyline: San Diego +100 | Los Angeles -120
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-185) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Padres vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Dodgers opened up as -125 favorites, but quickly shot up to -115 before trickling back down to around -120.
- 70% of the bets taken on the moneyline at DraftKings are on the Dodgers, with a slightly lower 62% of the money.
- The total remains at the opening line of 8.5 runs, though it twice dipped down to 8. While 52% of the tickets are on the Under, 73% of the handle is on the Over.
Padres vs Dodgers trend
The Dodgers have only covered the first five innings run line in 57 of their last 118 games for -20.90 units and a -14% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Dodgers.
Padres vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 9-24-2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SDPA, SportsNet Los Angeles |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Michael King (12-9, 3.06 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Landon Knack (2-4, 3.70 ERA) |
Padres vs Dodgers latest injuries
Padres vs Dodgers weather
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