Time to stop debating whether or not the North Carolina Tar Heels deserved a bid and time to focus on handicapping. Hubert Davis’ squad battles with Brian Dutcher’s San Diego State Aztecs in Dayton to decide which No. 11 seed advances to the Round of 64.
San Diego State’s recent tournament success under Dutcher is being thrown under the rug with this 4.5-point spread, but I’m not buying it. Check out my North Carolina vs. San Diego State predictions and college basketball picks for Tuesday, March 18.
Who will win North Carolina vs San Diego State?
San Diego State (+165) will pull off the upset. The Aztecs have proven time and time again in recent years that they’re cut out for tournament basketball and are getting disrespected by this line.
No team other than UConn (ahem, the back-to-back defending champs) has knocked the Aztecs out of Dance in the last two years, yet Brian Dutcher’s squad is a 4.5-point underdog to a team that was one bid-thief away from missing the tournament entirely.
They made the National Championship Game two years ago and the Sweet 16 last year — while this year’s group may not be of the same caliber, the stage isn’t the same, either.
North Carolina vs San Diego State prediction
My best bet: San Diego State +4.5 (-110 at bet365)
The San Diego State Aztecs deserve more respect than the current number, so I’m grabbing the points with the underdog in what could be a close game.
The Tar Heels last made it to the championship in 2022 (loss to Kansas), whereas San Diego State made it to the 2023 championship (loss to UConn). The Aztecs are making their 12th appearance in the Dance in their last 15 seasons and have been beaten only by back-to-back champs UConn in the last two tournaments.
Big man Magoon Gwath is expected to make his return to the court after missing nearly a month with a knee injury. That’s huge news for the Aztecs — the redshirt freshman was named the Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year and the Mountain West Freshman of the Year, leading the team with a 3.51 defensive Bayesian performance rating (Evan Miya) while blocking 2.6 shots per game.
The North Carolina Tar Heels are a guard-heavy team whose top four scorers average 6-foot-2 in height. Finding looks inside will prove difficult against an Aztecs team ranked 16th in near-proximity attempt rate and 14th in near-proximity field goal defense (Haslametrics) — especially when considering that those numbers are despite being without their top rim protector for a month. The Aztecs also defend the 3-point line very effectively, ranking 19th nationally (30.2%), a plus matchup for SDSU on that end of the court.
So, where is this line coming from? UNC is one of the hottest teams in the country, ranking 14th in Haslametrics’ Momentum metric while going 8-1 ATS in its last nine games. There’s also shade being thrown the Mountain West’s way as the conference has been a tournament liability.
The Aztecs have been the exception to that rule, standing alone as a successful MWC team in the Big Dance. Their stellar defense should at least keep things close against a UNC team that benefitted from a weak ACC schedule en route to the recent hot streak.
There’s a chance San Diego State’s free-throw shooting woes (66.6%) bite them in a close game, but I’ll still back the Aztecs against the spread, especially with the return of Gwath.
North Carolina vs San Diego State same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 142.5
San Diego State +4.5
There’s been a fair amount of movement in the total. After opening at 145.5 at some shops, the current number is down three points to 142.5 at bet365. That line movement is justified, and while the current number isn’t as appealing as the opener, I still side with the Under.
As outlined previously, the Aztecs should prove a tough puzzle to solve defensively as they wall off the rim and defend the 3-point line well, mitigating UNC's two strengths. San Diego State checks in at 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency (13th) and has limited good offenses like Creighton (53 points), Houston (65 points in regulation), and UC San Diego (58 points) in non-conference play.
Conversely, the Aztecs’ offense is the lowest-ranked unit on the court (111th in adjusted efficiency). Dutcher will want to slow this game down in his patented style, especially against a Tar Heels team that prefers to get out and run. The Under correlates best with an Aztec cover.
They’ve played in plenty of tournament games in the last few years, and the strong sample size backs that line of thinking. In their previous 20 postseason games (since 2022), San Diego State is 6-14 O/U.
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North Carolina vs San Diego State odds
North Carolina vs San Diego State live odds
North Carolina vs San Diego State opening odds
- Spread: North Carolina -4 | San Diego State +4
- Moneyline: North Carolina -170 | San Diego State +145
- Over/Under: Over 142.5 | Under 142.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
North Carolina vs San Diego State betting trend to know
San Diego State is 18-6 straight up with Magoon Gwath in the lineup. Find more college basketball betting trends for North Carolina vs. San Diego State.
How to watch North Carolina vs San Diego State
| Region | South |
| Location | UD Arena, Dayton, OH |
| Date | Tuesday, 3-18-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | truTV |
North Carolina vs San Diego State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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