The 2025 NCAA Tournament officially tips off tonight with a First Four game between two No. 16 seeds, the St. Francis (PA) Red Flash and the Alabama State Hornets.
Tournament basketball is tournament basketball, and we won’t complain if neither team is a world-beater. Alabama State’s defense is the most impressive unit on the court, so my St. Francis vs. Alabama Stat predictions are backing the Under.
Read my full March Madness picks for Tuesday, March 18 ahead of this 6:40 p.m. ET tip.
Who will win St. Francis (PA) vs Alabama State?
Alabama State (-190) will advance to the Round of 64. The Hornets are 10-1 in their last 11 games and face a St. Francis team with a losing record on the season. Rob Krimmel’s squad ranks 38 spots higher in KenPom and is the deserved favorite to come away victorious to face Auburn on Thursday.
St. Francis (PA) vs Alabama State prediction
My best bet: Under 138.5 (-105 at bet365)
The Alabama State Hornets arrive in Dayton as one of the hottest teams around, winning 10 of their final 11 games en route to a First Four berth. They rank 23rd in Haslametrics’ momentum metrics and also rate high in the away-from-home metric (72nd), providing some reasons for confidence for the SWAC representative.
The St. Francis Red Flash also ended the year on a heater, going 8-2 over their final 10 games to win the NEC title. It was an unlikely run for a team rated 311th in KenPom — the lowest of anyone in the tournament.
Let’s focus on the total for this handicap. St. Francis has been dead set on the Over, going 19-11 O/U on the year and 11-3 O/U in its last 14 games. Contrarily, Alabama State has been an Under team (12-20-1 O/U) this year and is 1-9 O/U in their previous 10 games.
The Hornets have been the better team, so their style of play is more likely to win out. The Red Flash were remarkably fortunate, winning three consecutive overtime games to end the regular season to aid their NEC triumph (and run to the Over). The numbers back up their good fortune as they rank 35th in KenPom’s luck metric.
Since February 7, St. Francis ranks 292nd in BartTorvik, failing to impress offensively (261st in adjusted efficiency) or defensively (280th). In that same period, Alabama State ranks 238th overall with a middling offense (282nd) but a relatively feisty defense (154th).
St. Francis is one of the worst teams in the country at drawing fouls, ranking 360th in free throws attempted per game (13.3). The Red Flash don’t grab offensive boards (8.7 per game) either, instead relying on mid-range jump shots. Alabama State shuts this area of the floor down, ranking 33rd in mid-range attempt rate defensively (Haslametrics).
On the flip side, the Hornets are a poor foul-shooting team (69.2%) that jacks up a lot of 3-pointers (27.2 per game) but doesn’t make them at a high rate (33%). The Red Flash have walled off the arc this season, holding teams to 30.9% from downtown.
St. Francis (PA) vs Alabama State same-game parlay (SGP)
Alabama State -4.5
Under 138.5
Any team in the NCAA Tournament deserves respect. Winning a conference tournament is never easy and all champions earned their spot.
That being said, the Red Flash should thank their lucky stars their season is still alive. They simply haven’t been an overly impressive team this year and have an underwhelming record to pair with underwhelming statistics.
They capitalized on a down NEC and won the championship game against a Central Connecticut team that had beaten them twice in the regular season by a combined 31 points. How’d they pull that off? A disastrous and uncharacteristic shooting performance from Central Connecticut — the Blue Devils shot 19-for-60 (31.7%) from the floor, 5-for-26 (19.2%) from 3-point range, and 3-for-7 (42.9%) from the line.
Alabama State’s 8-3 ATS run to end the year feels more bankable. There weren’t three consecutive overtime wins in that mix, and they didn’t need any shooting outages from a vastly superior team on paper.
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St. Francis (PA) vs Alabama State odds
St. Francis (PA) vs Alabama State live odds
St. Francis (PA) vs Alabama State opening odds
- Spread: St. Francis (PA) +3.5 (-110) | Alabama State -3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: St. Francis (PA) +145 | Alabama State -170
- Over/Under: Over 141 (-110) | Under 141 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
St. Francis (PA) vs Alabama State betting trend to know
Alabama State is 1-9 O/U in its last 10 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for St. Francis (PA) vs. Alabama State.
How to watch St. Francis (PA) vs Alabama State
| Region | South |
| Location | UD Arena, Dayton, OH |
| Date | Tuesday, 3-18-2025 |
| Tip-off | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | truTV |
St. Francis (PA) vs Alabama State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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