The Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros play the second game of a crucial three-game set at Minute Maid Park on Tuesday night. The M's are fighting for a wild card and trail the Astros by just four games in the AL West.
Seattle won the series opener last night but my Mariners vs. Astros predictions expect the home side to prevail here. Here are my best free MLB picks for this divisional showdown on September 24.
Mariners vs Astros prediction
My best bet
Astros moneyline (-138 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Houston Astros are sending lefty Framber Valdez and his 2.85 ERA to the mound tonight. Valdez has been red-hot since the start of August, pitching to a 1.33 ERA with an OBA of .138 through eight starts.
The Seattle Mariners have a hard-hitting lineup but struggle to make contact, ranking second-last in the majors in batting average (.224). They hit even worse against southpaws, batting .215 with an OPS of .670, so don't expect much success against Valdez today.
Logan Gilbert will toe the rubber for the M's and while he has an impressive 3.24 ERA, he's been significantly worse away from pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. His ERA ticks up to 3.82 in 16 starts on the road while the Astros are second in the majors in batting (.269) and fifth in OPS (.775) at home.
With the Astros boasting the better pitcher and more consistent lineup, along with home-field advantage, back them on the moneyline tonight.
Mariners vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Astros moneyline
Framber Valdez Over 6.5 strikeouts
Jose Altuve Over 1.5 total bases
The Mariners are dead-last in the majors in strikeout rate (26.9%) while ranking 28th in whiff rate. That's bad news against Valdez, who has 97 punchouts in 85 1/3 innings since the start of July.
Altuve is one of the top hitters in the world and his power numbers improve at home (.497 SLG this year). He also has a history of lighting Gilbert up, going 11-for-30 with a homer and five doubles against the Mariners righty in his career.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mariners vs Astros odds
Mariners vs Astros live odds
Mariners vs Astros opening odds
- Moneyline: Seattle +115 | Houston -135
- Run line: Seattle +1.5 (-205) | Houston -1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under: Over 7 (-120) | Under 7 (+100)
Mariners vs Astros moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Mariners have gone 7-3 in their last 10 games and they are just 1.5 games behind the Tigers and Royals for the final wild card.
- The Astros have lost back-to-back contests but are still 8-4 in their last 12 and sit atop the AL West with an 85-72 record.
- Over the last 15 days, the Mariners have been red-hot at the plate, batting .278 with an OPS of .797.
- The Astros are 13-2 in Valdez's last 15 starts while the Mariners are 0-6 in Gilbert's previous six starts on the road.
Mariners vs Astros trend
The Astros have covered the First Five Innings Run Line in 20 of their last 31 games (+6.95 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Astros.
Mariners vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, 9-24-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | RSNW, SCHN |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | Logan Gilbert (7-11, 3.24 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Framber Valdez (14-6, 2.91 ERA) |
Mariners vs Astros latest injuries
Mariners vs Astros weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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