The Philadelphia Phillies clinched the division with Monday’s win, and they’re neck-and-neck with the Los Angeles Dodgers for the No. 1 seed in the National League.
Philly hosts the Chicago Cubs again Tuesday, and my Cubs vs. Phillies predictions are backing lots of runs, as both teams could be turning to their bullpens for big innings.
Find out more in my MLB picks for September 24.
Cubs vs Phillies prediction
My best bet
Over 8.5 (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
The Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs have been two of the best offenses in baseball down the stretch, with respective fifth and ninth-ranked wOBAs in September. Additionally, both teams could be relying on their bullpens for big innings Tuesday.
Philly is going with Tanner Banks as an opener and then likely handing the ball over to Taijuan Walker and/or Kolby Allard. It’s not ideal for the home team, either. Walker has been shelled for a 6.91 ERA and 5.20 xFIP this season, while Allard sports underwhelming 4.30 and 4.43 marks across just 23 frames. Allard’s 5.94 career ERA is obviously nothing to write home about, either.
Chicago has lefty Justin Steele set to toe the rubber, and he’s been excellent, but he’s likely still not fully stretched out. He missed approximately three weeks with elbow tendinitis before throwing just 57 pitches in his return to action last Wednesday.
The Cubs have also been leaning heavily on their bullpen over the past two weeks. Chicago relievers have accounted for 48.1 innings and turned in a 5.03 ERA and 4.41 xFIP, with those marks ranking sixth and seventh-highest in the majors.
Additionally, while it's likely a few Philly veterans are out of the lineup Tuesday, the Phillies pace baseball in wOBA against left-handed arms and can still earn the top seed in the NL. I’m not anticipating Philadelphia packing it in on the regular season with plenty still to play for.
Cubs vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
Phillies moneyline
Over 8.5
Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
The Phillies are an MLB-best 53-26 at Citizens Bank Park, and I don’t have confidence in Steele pitching deep into Tuesday’s game, or the Chicago bullpen pitching well. The 29-year-old lefty wasn’t sharp and walked three batters across just 2.2 innings last time out, after all.
Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki has been equally solid against left and right-handed pitchers, and he’s also finishing off the year in style. Suzuki hits in the heart of the Chicago lineup and has gone Over the number in this market in eight of his past 13 games.
| vs. LHP | vs. RHP | in September | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Batting average | .270 | .281 | .303 |
| wOBA | .353 | .362 | .386 |
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Phillies odds
Cubs vs Phillies live odds
Cubs vs Phillies opening odds
- Moneyline: Chicago -120 | Philadelphia +100
- Run line: Chicago -1.5 (+135) | Philadelphia +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Cubs vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- After initial action on the Chicago side of this moneyline, there’s been buyback on Philly at Pinnacle. The Cubs opened at -121, and they’re trading at -120 as of Tuesday morning.
- It’s a different story at bet365. The Cubs have moved from an opening -120 favorite to -130.
- The movement has been slightly to the Under at both Pinnacle and bet365.
- There could be more Under action If the Phillies opt to rest multiple regulars, but this is still an Over play for me because of the Chicago bullpen struggles, and Philly set to rely on big innings from Walker and/or Allard.
Cubs vs Phillies trend
The Chicago Cubs have hit the game total Over in 20 of their last 30 away games (+12.30 Units / 37% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Phillies.
Cubs vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 9-24-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MARQ, NBCSP |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Justin Steele (5-5, 3.30 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Tanner Banks (2-2, 3.78 ERA) |
Cubs vs Phillies latest injuries
Cubs vs Phillies weather
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