The San Francisco Giants have lost five straight games including a 4-2 defeat in the series opener against the Arizona Diamondbacks when Pavin Smith blasted a walk-off home run.
My Giants vs. Diamondbacks predictions will veer away from the odds, which favor Arizona, at least at first, as I analyze how both lineups have fared against southpaws with a pair of lefty starters toeing the rubber.
See exactly where that inspection leads us in my best bet and full MLB picks on Tuesday, June 4.
Giants vs Diamondbacks prediction
My best bet
Giants first five innings moneyline (+105 at DraftKings)
My analysis
This game is a rarity in that both ballclubs are sending out a 22-year-old left-handed starting pitcher. Kyle Harrison gets the nod for the San Francisco Giants while Blake Walston makes his second career appearance for the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Harrison has scuffled a bit lately, allowing at least three earned runs in each of his last four starts. Still, he’s been a bright spot for this organization and has been snakebitten some by an unfortunate .323 BABIP. The Giants haven’t seemed to notice, chugging right along and coming away victorious in eight of his last nine starts.
He faces a Diamondbacks lineup that has been lost at the plate against southpaws, posting a 76 wRC+ (26th) and a .273 wOBA (26th) across the last 20 days. Arizona is just 9-14 this season when facing lefties.
Walston impressed in his debut, holding the Miami Marlins scoreless across 4 2/3 IP while allowing four hits and a walk and notching four strikeouts. Now, for the obvious and notable caveat — Miami is the worst team at hitting lefties this season, ranking last in wRC+ (68), wOBA (.263), and ISO (.094) while posting a .591 OPS. Truly terrible numbers.
The rookie hurler has another thing coming against the Giants. In the last 20 days, they rank second in both wRC+ (148) and wOBA (.373) against left-handed pitching with an .880 OPS.
The projection systems aren’t high on Walston — he walks too many batters (5.1 per nine innings in Triple-A this season and 5.6 the year prior) and isn’t a high strikeout guy (6.3 per nine innings in 2023). That explains his terrible xFIP numbers (6.85 in 2022, 5.50 a year ago). The systems all call for an ERA above 4.50 and a FIP in a similar bucket, which seems generous.
I see clear advantages for the Giants at the outset of this game and will back their F5 moneyline as the bookmakers don’t seem to agree with my handicap, offering me plus money. The Giants have been mashing lefties whereas their counterparts have been allergic to doing so lately.
I’ll buy low on the road team after a few losses against good teams. In the battle of young southpaws, I know which horse I want to back.
Giants vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Giants moneyline
Giants team total Over 4.5
Jorge Soler Over 1.5 total bases
Blake Walston 3+ walks allowed
If the Giants are going to cash the F5 innings ML, they likely cash the full game ML as well. It’s easier to piece together SGPs using the full-game ML as the F5 isn't always available, so that’s exactly what I’ll do.
Jorge Soler has had a slow start in the Bay Area but let’s not forget he’s an absolute lefty killer. The slugger has posted a .941 OPS against southpaws since 2022 and likely plays a role if the Giants are to cash their team total Over.
I mentioned Walston’s command issues earlier and I expect to see those come to fruition on Tuesday against a Giants lineup with the fourth-highest BB% (10.6%) against lefties in the last 20 days.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Giants vs Diamondbacks odds
Giants vs Diamondbacks live odds
Giants vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Run line: San Francisco +1.5 (-200) | Arizona -1.5 (+165)
- Moneyline: San Francisco -105 | Arizona -115
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115)
Giants vs Diamondbacks spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Giants have lost five straight games, but let’s keep in mind who some of the opponents were (Phillies, Yankees).
- The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, are a team below .500.
- The Giants are 7-2 O/U in their last nine games on the road and are 14-6 O/U in their last 20 overall.
- The Diamondbacks have lost their offense at home, cashing their Team Total Under in 16 of their last 21 games at Chase Field.
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Giants vs Diamondbacks trend
San Francisco is 8-1 in Harrison’s last nine starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Diamondbacks
Giants vs Diamondbacks game info
| Location: | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Tuesday, 6-4-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCSBA, ARID |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Kyle Harrison (4-2, 4.15 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Blake Walston (0-0, 2.16 ERA) |
Giants vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Giants vs Diamondbacks weather
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