The San Francisco Giants and Pittsburgh Pirates come back from the All-Star break to face off in a three-game set at PNC Park. The Pirates began the season strong but floundered during the last couple of months, while the Giants are eight games above .500 but have their work cut out for them in a very tough NL West division.
MLB betting lines opened with the Giants installed as -130 road favorites for the series opener on Friday with the Over/Under at 9. Here are my best free Giants vs. Pirates MLB picks and predictions for July 14.
Giants vs Pirates odds
Giants vs Pirates predictions
The Giants are sending right-hander Ross Stripling to the mound. Stripling has bounced between the rotation and bullpen for most of his career and he made a career-high 24 starts for the Blue Jays last year but logged a modest 123 1/3 innings in those contests.
Stripling has been used more as a reliever with the Giants but continues to occasionally crack the rotation, although he doesn't pitch deep into games even when he's on. He hasn't been on very much this season, and in seven starts, he's posted a 5.93 ERA across 27 1/3 innings.
Stripling hasn't pitched more than five innings in any appearance this season and has gone past the fourth inning in just three of 12 outings. The veteran also ranks in the bottom 25th percentile of all pitchers when it comes to strikeout rate, while his chase rate is in the bottom 20th percentile.
That makes the O/U of 3.5 on Stripling's strikeouts total ripe for the picking. In seven starts this season, he has gone Over that number just once and he looks like a good bet to cash the Under again.
My best bet: Ross Stripling Under 3.5 strikeouts (-110)
Giants vs Pirates same-game parlay
Stripling Under 3.5 strikeouts (-125)
Stripling Under 1.5 walks (-140)
Giants ML (-125)
Just because I think Stripling will go below his strikeout total doesn't mean that I think he'll necessarily struggle. The fact that he ranks in the Top 20th percentile when it comes to walk rate makes me also think that he'll also go below his walks total in what I expect will be a relatively short stint.
I also think that the Giants are likely to pick up the win against a Pirates team that has struggled over the last couple of months. The Giants are 10th in the majors in hard-hit rate and barrel rate while ranking 18th in wOBA over the same period of time (.314) since the start of May.
Meanwhile, the Pirates are 27th in barrel rate, 18th in hard-hit rate, and 29th in wOBA (.291) over the same period of time. That advantage at the plate and their superior bullpen should lead the Giants to a victory in this spot.
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Giants vs Pirates moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Giants opened as -130 road favorites with the O/U at 9 for this game.
The Pirates, surprisingly, got off to a fast start to the season going 20-8 in their first 28 games. Then regression set in and they've gone just 21-41 over their last 62 games.
Meanwhile, the Giants have won 19 of their last 30 games as they chase the Diamondbacks and Dodgers in the NL West.
Both of these starters have struggled this year. Pittsburgh's Rich Hill is in the bottom 15th percentile in barrel rate, expected slugging percentage (.488), and expected ERA (5.64). Stripling has been slightly worse, ranking in the bottom 10th percentile in barrel rate, xSLG (.513), and xERA (5.75).
That could make the bullpens an important factor in this matchup and the Giants have the edge there as well. San Francisco relievers are 11th in the majors in ERA (3.80) and fifth in WHIP (1.23) while the Pirates bullpen is 22nd in ERA (4.24)and 24th in WHIP (1.38)
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Trend to know
The Giants have cashed the Moneyline in 16 of their last 23 away games (+10.60 Units / 39% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Pirates
Giants vs Pirates game info
| Location: | PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Friday, July 14, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
Starting pitchers
Ross Stripling (0-2, 6.37 ERA): Stripling had a terrific season with the Blue Jays in 2022, posting career-best numbers in ERA (3.01), WHIP (1.02), and innings pitched (134 1/3). He has regressed with his new team, pitching to a 1.46 WHIP with an OBA of .293 through 41 innings this year. In his last start, he allowed a pair of runs before getting the hook midway through the fourth inning at home against the Rockies.
Rich hill (7-9, 4.78 ERA): The 43-year-old is still pitching in the big leagues although he isn't anywhere near as effective as he used to be. The lefty has really struggled lately, pitching to a 6.31 ERA with a 1.64 WHIP over his last five starts.
