A four-game series between the Cleveland Guardians and Los Angeles Angels starts tonight at Angel Stadium.
Cleveland (7-8) has been hot and cold, as its three most recent series have all been sweeps — swept by the Giants, a sweep of the White Sox, and most recently swept by the Yankees.
Los Angeles (9-7) enters after losing two of three to the Orioles despite being heavily favored in each game.
Check out our MLB betting picks and predictions for the Cleveland Guardians and Los Angeles Angels on Monday, April 25.
Guardians vs Angels odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The line opened with the Angels -100 but has moved in the Guardians’ direction. The Angels reside between +100 and +110 depending on the book. The total opened at 8.5 but has been bet down to 8 by this writing.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Guardians vs Angels predictions
Picks made on 4/25/2022 at 8:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Guardians vs Angels game info
• Location: Angel Stadium, Anaheim, CA
• Date: Monday, April 25, 2022
• First pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Network
Guardians vs Angels betting preview
Starting pitchers
Shane Bieber (1-0, 2.25 ERA): Bieber fever looks like it’s here to stay. The star right-hander picked up right where he left off a year ago, accumulating a 2.25 ERA and microscopic 0.69 WHIP across three starts. His workload has slowly been ramping up, going 4 2-3 innings on 72 pitches in his first start, 5 1-3 innings on 79 pitches in his second, and six innings on 86 pitches in his most recent outing. He should be ramped up and ready to handle nearly a full workload.
Michael Lorenzen (1-1, 4.82 ERA): The 30-year-old right-hander spent his first seven seasons in Cincinnati, accumulating a 24-24 record and a 4.08 ERA while primarily operating as a bullpen arm who made the occasional spot start. He was fantastic in his first outing against Miami this season, tossing six innings of one-run ball while allowing only two hits. His last time out wasn’t as pretty, as he allowed four earned in only 3 1-3 innings against Houston. He doesn’t strike out a ton of batters (career 7.74 K/9) and can issue too many free passes (career 3.71 BB/9).
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Guardians: Steven Kwan LF (Questionable), Luke Maile C (Out), Yu Chang SS (Out), Anthony Castro RP (Out), James Karinchak RP (Out).
Angels: Brandon Marsh CF (Questionable), David Fletcher SS (Questionable), Jose Quijada RP (Out), Cooper Criswell RP (Out), Chris Rodriguez RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Angels are 2-8 in their last 10 games as a home underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Angels
Guardians vs Angels picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
It’s difficult to overstate the pitching advantage that Cleveland has in this series opener. Shane Bieber has established himself as one of the elites in the pitching fraternity, notching a 42-18 record and 3.26 ERA in his five-year career. He’s an excellent strikeout artist (career 11.25 K/9) and has typically done a great job of limiting walks (2.08 BB/9).
Michael Lorenzen is on the bump for the Angels, and he’s mostly served as a bullpen arm during his career. There isn’t much to be overly optimistic about in his profile — he doesn’t strike out many batters and he issues too many walks.
Expected to be one of the worst lineups in the league, the Guardians have been red hot to start the season. They rank Top-5 in runs per game (third with 5.13), batting average (also third at .264), and OPS (fourth at .749). Vegas evidently isn’t buying the hot start as this line opened virtually as a pick ‘em despite Cleveland's significant pitching advantage.
The Angels lineup has also been hot to begin 2022, ranking fourth in runs per game (5.01), seventh in batting average (.246), and third in OPS (.750). They’ve hit the second-most home runs in the league with 21, behind only the Toronto Blue Jays (22).
However, the Angels have had troubles in the bullpen. Their relievers have combined for a 4.37 ERA while allowing a whopping 12 home runs. Cleveland will have an edge in that department, as its bullpen has a 3.73 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.
The Guardians have been running hot and cold and were most recently swept by the Yankees. Still, Bieber is one of the best pitchers in the majors and the Guardians have the advantage in the bullpen as well. We’re backing Cleveland.
Prediction: Guardians moneyline (-114 at BetRivers)
Over/Under analysis
Bieber was arguably unlucky across 96 innings a season ago, surrendering a .327 average on batted balls in play yet still maintaining an ERA of only 3.17. He’s one of the game’s best and looks healthy as he’s ramping up to full speed. His career 3.26 ERA, 3.01 FIP, and 11.25 K/9 ratio all point toward him being an elite pitcher.
The only potential cause for concern, and it isn't nothing, is Bieber's fastball velocity is averaging 91.3 mph, which is down from 92.9 a year ago and 94.3 in 2020.
Lorenzen, on the other hand, isn’t necessarily the most electric pitcher. That being said, Cleveland’s red-hot offensive output to begin the year is flat out unsustainable when evaluating the talent level in the lineup. The Guardians bats have performed above their heads to begin the season and are due for some regression as the season continues.
The Angels have been swinging the sticks well (fourth in runs per game with 5.01) but have a very tough matchup against Bieber, who also has a solid bullpen behind him. The Guardians have been strong offensively and get a decent matchup against Lorenzen, but their lineup is simply an overvalued commodity at this point.
There’s a dead ball in baseball this season and enough signs point toward the Under, so that’s the way we’ll look.
Prediction: Under 8 (-105 at DraftKings)
Best bet
Cleveland has been playing surprisingly good ball to start the season. Bieber is a true ace and is the significantly better pitcher in this matchup. He possesses the tools to slow down this Angels lineup that has been producing well to begin the year.
Anytime you can get close to even money to back a pitcher of Bieber’s quality, it’s worth taking a look. I agree with the early action on the Guardians moneyline and will be using them as my best bet.
Pick: Guardians moneyline (-114 at BetRivers)
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