The Cleveland Guardians are really starting to hit the ball, and enter Tuesday the winners of six games in their last eight tries. With another one of their bright young pitchers going tonight, it could spell trouble for a San Diego Padres team that has just begun to right the ship.
Let’s break down Guardians vs. Padres in our MLB picks and predictions for Tuesday, June 13.
Guardians vs Padres odds
Guardians vs Padres predictions
After experiencing an inevitable letdown from the incredible hype he received around his first two starts, Tanner Bibee of the Guardians has settled in at the major league level with a very solid 3.04 ERA. Together with a 3.41 xERA and above-average strikeout and walk numbers, the young right-hander is a very respectable pitcher.
It’ll be one of the few good pitchers the Padres have faced over the last week or so, which throws some cold water on their solid run of form on offense. Juan Soto has turned his season around in a big way, but surely we can’t be anointing this Padres lineup after some nice games in Colorado and against some beaten down Cubs and Marlins pitching.
Bibee’s ability to limit walks and barrels here should make him kryptonite for a San Diego team which has been aided by free passes and homers in the last couple of weeks.
On the other side of this one, Joe Musgrove has struggled big-time with a 4.36 ERA. Worst of all is the fact that his fly ball rate is up almost five points from last year. His expected batting average is a spicy .212, but he’s not inducing enough ground balls here to avoid some potentially devastating blows from a Cleveland offense ranked second in wRC+ in the last two weeks.
My best bet: Guardians moneyline (+140 at DraftKings)
Guardians vs Padres same-game parlay
Guardians moneyline
Bibee 5+ strikeouts
Rosario 1+ hits
As you can tell from above, I’m very into the Guardians here.
Bibee has struck out five or more batters in five of his seven starts this season. He will be up against a San Diego team which has been better at the dish over the last 14 days, but which has still struck out in 22.3% of plate appearances. The Padres have been one of the worst-disciplined teams all season, and I have little faith they can avoid punching out against the talented Bibee.
On top of that, Amed Rosario owns a couple of hits off of Musgrove in seven at-bats, and comes into Tuesday on a six-game hitting streak. His expected batting average implies some serious positive regression is on the way, and with a solid .300 average against the cutter this year, this should be a good matchup for him.
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Guardians vs Padres moneyline and Over/Under analysis
There’s been a little interest in the Guardians here, considering they opened up as +145 underdogs and find themselves at +140 or lower as of this writing. DraftKings is reporting 34% of the bets here have come in on Cleveland, but the underdogs have commanded 50% of the moneyline handle.
As for the total, 59% of the bets here are on the Over, but the number is now down to 7.5 runs from the opening line of 8. That’s because 81% of the handle is on the Under here, with bettors perhaps seeing Musgrove’s expected stats and backing some positive regression to the mean.
I’d probably side with the Under here, if I were to pick a side. I do think the Guardians have hit the ball exceptionally well lately and Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez are beginning to find their form. I also think it’s tough to look at a guy with a .212 expected batting average going against a high-contact team and think he will get lit up. Cleveland is the best at getting the ball in play, but not exactly the best about driving the ball to the outfield.
That could make for a low-scoring game here, and we already know Bibee should hold up his end of the bargain. The Padres are just 10-21 to the Over at home this season and 21-42-2 overall thanks to their inability to hit the ball. The Under has also cashed in seven of their last nine. This is simply a team a bit gassed up from hitting against poor pitching, and on the other side of the coin Bibee has watched five of his eight starts cash the Under.
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Trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings in San Diego. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs Padres
Guardians vs Padres game info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, June 13, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Tanner Bibee (2-1, 3.05 ERA): The youngster owns a 3.60 ERA in May across 10 innings, striking out eight and walking three along the way. He allowed just one earned run and just six baserunners last time out against the Red Sox.
Joe Musgrove (3-2, 4.35 ERA): The graying veteran has begun to right the ship, going three straight outings now without allowing more than one earned run. He struck out eight over five innings of one-run ball in his last start against the Mariners.
