The Guardians (47-44) and White Sox (46-47) are set to play a doubleheader on Saturday as they fight for position in the AL Central standings.
Game 2 at night features a pitching matchup between Konnor Pilkington for Cleveland and Lance Lynn for Chicago.
Who will grab a win in the second game of this double-header?
Check out our MLB picks and predictions for the Cleveland Guardians and the Chicago White Sox on Saturday, July 23 to find out.
Guardians vs White Sox odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The White Sox opened as -174 favorites and there hasn’t been much line movement. Depending on the book, they currently reside between -169 and -190. The total opened at 9.5 across all books but 9 is available at some spots currently.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Guardians vs White Sox predictions
Picks made on 7/23/2022 at 9:50 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Guardians vs White Sox game info
• Location: Guaranteed Rate Field Stadium, Chicago, IL
• Date: Saturday, July 23, 2022
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Guardians vs White Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Konnor Pilkington (1-2, 4.24 ERA): IThe 24-year-old left-hander has seen limited success in the big leagues thus far. He’s only factored into three decisions across 11 appearances (eight starts), picking up a lone win. His 4.24 ERA isn’t bad, but his 5.03 xERA is. His primary concern has been issuing too many walks (11.2% walk rate) without being a strikeout pitcher (19.7% strikeout rate). His 8.5% barrel rate indicates he is giving up too much hard contact.
Lance Lynn (1-3, 7.50 ERA): Lynn just hasn’t looked right this season. He made his season debut two months ago and it’s been a rocky road since, as shown by his 7.50 ERA. He placed third in AL Cy Young voting a year ago but hasn’t been able to find that magic this season. He had surgery this offseason to repair a small tear in his knee after trying unsuccessfully to rehab the injury during Spring Training. Perhaps he is still returning to full health, and the results haven’t been pretty.
Weather
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Key injuries
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Betting trend to know
The Over is 7-2 in White Sox’s last nine games vs. a left-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. White Sox
Guardians vs White Sox picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Across seven starts this season, Lance Lynn has amassed a 7.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. His fastball velocity has dropped almost 1.5 MPH and he doesn’t appear to be operating at full health.
He probably gets on track at some point — considering that he is a veteran coming off a stupendous performance during the 2021 season — but I’m going to need to see more proof before I’m a believer. Allowing a whopping 19 earned runs across his final three starts before the All-Star Break was not an encouraging sign.
It’s not that I have a lot of faith in Cleveland’s Konnor Pilkington (5.03 xERA, 8.5% barrel rate), it’s simply that he’s been less terrible than Lynn this year. The White Sox even hit lefties very well, but I still can’t give either team a significant starting pitching advantage for this matchup.
The Guardians are 4-0 in their last four games, and all four wins have come against right-handed starting pitching. They‘ve performed well in this series, winning seven of their last 10 games against the White Sox.
I believe that this line is inflated, as I don’t have any confidence in either starting pitcher and believe these teams are fairly evenly matched. Therefore, I will be taking a stab at the underdog in this matchup as I prefer to be holding a nice plus-money ticket, provided the inherent volatility in the second game of a doubleheader.
Prediction: Guardians moneyline (+155 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
I’m targeting the Over, as both teams should fancy their chances for an offensive explosion in this matchup. It’s tricky with the second game of doubleheaders, as you’re guessing what the lineup will be, but I’d lean toward the Over regardless.
Pilkington’s 5.03 xERA and 8.5% barrel rate are both terrible indications of future success. He doesn’t strike out a ton of batters and has a huge issue with walks (11.2% walk rate).
The White Sox have mashed left-handed pitching this season, ranking second in OPS, third in wOBA, and first in wRC+ against southpaws. They get a favorable matchup and should be bullish on their chances of scoring early and often.
The Over is 7-2 in White Sox’s last nine games vs. a left-handed starter.
Cleveland also has a favorable outlook against Lynn and his ghastly 7.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. His velocity is down and it still appears he’s recovering from the knee problems that gave him a late start to his season. Guardian bats looked ready to go yesterday when they plated six runs against Lucas Giolito and eight runs overall en route to victory.
I’m taking the Over.
Prediction: Over 9 (-105 at DraftKings)
Best bet
I’m targeting the Over as my best bet for this second game of the doubleheader.
I’ll have a ticket on the full-game Over, but the first five innings are where I’m looking for the best bet. Lynn’s 7.50 ERA doesn’t inspire any confidence until he gives me a reason to think otherwise, and Pilkington’s 8.5% barrel rate is bad news against a White Sox lineup that ranks first in wRC+ against southpaws.
Both teams should get to the opposing starting pitcher and therefore I’ll take the Over 5 in the first five innings.
Pick: Over 5 first five innings (-120 at DraftKings)
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