Guardians vs White Sox Picks and Predictions: South Siders Get Payback For Monday

It's the second meeting of the three-game series between the Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox. Before suffering a shocking defeat last night, Chicago had been rolling, having won nine straight games entering Monday's clash.

Chicago held a six-run lead going into the top half of the ninth and exited with the game tied. Josh Naylor hit a grand slam to erase a four-run deficit, and the Guardians would later win in extra innings by a score of 12-9. Congrats to those that cashed our two Best Bets in that thrilling matchup.

Can the White Sox get revenge today? Here are our MLB betting picks and predictions for Guardians vs. White Sox on Tuesday, May 10th.

Guardians vs White Sox odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Opening odds for today's matchup were released Tuesday morning. The White Sox opened up as -185 favorites with the Guardians returning at +155. Since then, Cleveland has taken some money, and Chicago is down to -180 in some spots.

The total opened up at 7.5 and has stayed the same.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Guardians vs White Sox predictions

• Prediction: White Sox ML (-180)
• Prediction: Over 7.5 (-110)
• Best bet: SGP Quantrill Under 4.5 Ks + White Sox F5 -0.5 (+141)

Picks made on 5/10/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Guardians vs White Sox game info

• Location: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Tuesday, May 10, 2022
• First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC Sports Chicago, Bally Sports Great Lakes

Guardians vs White Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Cal Quantrill (1-1, 3.54 ERA): What I wrote yesterday about Zach Plesac would ring pretty accurate with Quantrill. Quantrill benefited from some luck last season with an expected ERA two runs higher than his actual ERA. In 2022, Quantrill has had a reasonably mixed bag to begin the year, looking solid in his first two starts against the Royals and the Giants. Even if it didn't show up from a run perspective, he was struck hard in his subsequent starts against the Yankees and the Angels. The significant difference between Quantrill and Plesac is that Quantrill does a reasonably good job of limiting hard contact. Beyond that, the barrel rate, strikeout rate, and other peripherals are the same. That's a bit worrisome in the future.

Lucas Giolito (1-1, 3.20 ERA): After seeing a strikeout rate that slightly dipped last season, Giolito has started this year with one of the best rates in baseball. He has the 7th best K rate among active major league pitchers, striking out a mind-blowing 40% of batters. Giolito was impressive in his first two starts, allowing just one run over two short outings. After that, he was a little banged around against the hard-hitting Dodgers but limited the damage to only three earned runs. Giolito won't ever be the linchpin of a rotation, but he gets outs and rarely has a blow-up start.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Guardians: No key injuries to report.
White Sox: Andrew Vaughn LF (Out), Eloy Jimenez LF (Out), Yermin Mercedes 1B (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Chicago. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. White Sox

Guardians vs White Sox picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

This is a very similar matchup to yesterday's when the White Sox did everything but finish off the win.

We have a pitcher for the Guardians who has an immensely high barrel rate and is due for some negative regression. We have a team going against him that knows who to barrel up balls and does it as well as any team in baseball. There are a few differences worth noting, though.

Giolito relies on many swings and misses as his K rate rises and falls by the strength of his pitching. Because of this, when teams make contact with a pitch, they usually hit it a long way. That can be worrisome when you're going up against a lineup that features hard hitters like Josh Naylor, Franmil Reyes, and especially Jose Ramirez.

The good thing for Giolito is while Cleveland doesn't strike out much as a team, that rate tends to creep up when the Guardians leave Cleveland. The Guardians have struck out three more times per game on the road compared to contests at home.

I won't be laying either price here. The White Sox aren't attractive enough to me at the current price of -180, and situationally, it's hard to back Cleveland even at a nice number. But if I'm forced to choose, I'll roll with the White Sox as my projection model has them winning a little over 65% of the time.

Prediction: White Sox moneyline (-180 at Circa)

Over/Under analysis

Now we're going from a spot I don't want to touch to a spot I love. I'll be going with the Over once again today. It has hit in five of the last seven meetings in Chicago, and conditions are primed for it to keep rolling again tonight. Temperatures will be in the 80s, and the wind will be swirling around Guaranteed Rate field, shifting directions around 25 mph.

Both teams have reasonably good matchups at the plate. For Chicago, they do a great job of making contact and barreling up balls. And, fortunately, they get a pitcher with one of the worst barrel rates in baseball. They saw that already yesterday with Plesac and touched him up for five runs.

For Cleveland, they get a pitcher who relies on strikeouts and can give up hard hits when he doesn't induce whiffs. Cleveland doesn't strike out a ton even if their numbers go up on the road. And they have enough pop in their lineup to make Giolito pay for giving up hard contact.

Unders have hit at a ridiculous clip to begin the MLB season. But as we get into the warmer months, you'll start seeing more to the Over with oddsmakers slow to adjust. I expect this to soar Over for a second straight night and will look to rebet it live if we get a scoreless first frame.

Prediction: Over 7.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Best bet

There are several things I like in this matchup from a prop perspective. From Luis Robert Over 1.5 bases to Franmil Reyes hitting a home run, there are a lot of good opportunities. But I'm going to go back to yesterday's well. Let's fade Cleveland's starting pitching again.

Quantrill has only gone Over today's strikeout total of 4.5 once this season and that came in his most recent start when he punched out seven Padres. The only other time he's been close so far was against the Angels, who own one of the highest strikeout rates in the league. However, the White Sox do a great job of making contact. They have the second-fewest strikeouts in the majors and have an over 80% contact rating at the plate. Along with that, they are consistently making very hard contact.

There are two teams in the MLB that meet the following conditions: Top 5 in exit velocity, Top 5 in barrel rate, and an expected slugging percentage HIGHER than their actual slugging percentage. They are the Yankees and the White Sox. This tells you that while they are swinging a good bat right now, they could be even better.

I love Quantrill to have fewer than five strikeouts. There is a decent potential for him to get blasted and pulled early, but even if that doesn't happen, the White Sox's low strikeout rate gives me great confidence that he won't get there. It only seems logical to pair this with the first five spread of -0.5 for the White Sox, given their favorable matchup at the plate.

This hit pretty comfortably yesterday at a friendly price, and since I see a similar matchup today, I'll play it again at another attractive price.

Pick: Same-game parlay, Quantrill Under 4.5 strikeouts + White Sox first five innings -0.5 (+156 at Fanduel)

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