The American League Divisional Series between the New York Yankees and the Cleveland Guardians resumes Friday after Game 2 was pushed back a day due to rain.
The Yankees took care of business in Game 1, defeating the Guardians 4-1 thanks to some home runs and a solid performance from Gerrit Cole.
Now Cleveland will try to make those New York bats feel a little queasy by hitting them with a little fever. Bieber Fever, that is! Shane Bieber quietly had an excellent second half of his season and was outstanding in his Wild Card start against Tampa Bay.
Does he give the Guardians some value in Game 2 while the Yanks counter with Nestor Cortes Jr.? I break it all down and give you my best bet in our MLB picks and predictions for the Guardians vs. Yankees on October 14.
You can also check out an analytical breakdown from EV Analytics in our Guardians vs. Yankees betting insights.
Guardians vs Yankees best odds
Guardians vs Yankees picks and predictions
The fever is back, baby! Shane Bieber has been quietly outstanding in the second half of the season, looking very similar to the guy who won the American League Cy Young award in 2020. He was also a big reason why the Guardians were able to go on a 16-2 run late in the season, which helped them clinch the AL Central Division crown.
Bieber pitched to a 2.04 ERA, limiting opponents to a .215 batting average and a .562 OPS over his final 13 starts of the regular season. The right-hander carried that over into his first postseason start, holding the Rays to just one run on three hits while striking out eight over 7 2-3 innings of work last Friday.
He’s also been a beast when it comes to innings pitched, averaging nearly seven innings per start over his last 14 games.
Bieber gets a whole new test in the Yankees on Friday, who he has yet to face in 2022. The overall offensive numbers from the Yanks are solid, but they have asked a lot from Aaron Judge this season. The second half of the year was also more of a struggle.
Post-All-Star break, the Yankees ranked 21st in batting average, 10th in OPS, and 17th in strikeout rate. And that’s including all of Judge’s incredible numbers.
The Yankees counter Bieber with Nestor Cortes, and the lefty has been outstanding in his own right this season, pitching to a 2.44 ERA and limiting opponents to a .189 batting average.
He faces a pesky, well-coached, and streaky Guardians lineup. One that has been riding a wave of momentum since the start of September, where the team had the third-highest batting average while ranking 11th in OPS and wRC+. Heck, they even out-hit the Yanks 6-to-5 in Game 1.
If the Guardians can steal a game, it’s this one with Bieber on the mound. And if they do, it’s likely because he pitched well enough to earn the win for a prop we are getting a ton of value on.
My best bet: Bieber to record the win (+220 at DraftKings)
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Guardians vs Yankees ALDS odds
| Teams | Odds to win series |
|---|---|
 Cleveland Guardians |
+325 |
 New York Yankees |
-425 |
Guardians vs Yankees moneyline analysis
The Yankees hit the board for Game 2 as approximately -150 home favorites, but I think that number is undervaluing the Guardians considering their ace is taking the mound.
Bieber and Cortes are, at worst, equals in this matchup. The same can be said for the bullpens. The biggest difference in this game is that one team has Judge, and the other doesn’t.
I already broke down why there is value in Bieber recording a win, so I would also side with the Guardians on the moneyline if you can get it in the +120 to +125 range.
Guardians vs Yankees Over/Under analysis
Now, the total is probably the main event here. It is another low postseason number of 6.0, but it is entirely deserved in this matchup because Bieber is not the only one with great numbers in this matchup.
Cortes has been great all season, but even more so in the Bronx. Cortes owns a ridiculous 1.95 ERA while limiting opponents to a .161 batting average over 15 starts at Yankee Stadium this season.
And while Cleveland’s offense has been much improved in the second half, the overall numbers against southpaws aren’t great. The Guardians ranked 20th in batting average and 28th in OPS when digging in against left-handed hurlers this season.
Pitching should really be the story in this one, or at least early on. Expect both starters to put up a bunch of zeros on the scoreboard and take a hard look at the first five total going Under.
Guardians vs Yankees trend to know
The Guardians are 7-0 in their last seven games when following a loss. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Yankees
Guardians vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Friday, October 14, 2022 |
| First pitch: | 1:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
Starting pitchers
Shane Bieber (13-8, 2.88 ERA): Bieber has limited opponents to two earned runs or fewer 12 times over his last 14 starts. However, this will be the right-hander's first start against the powerful Bronx Bombers this season.
Nestor Cortes Jr. (12-4, 2.44 ERA): Has Cortes had a really bad start all season? The most runs the lefty has allowed in a start is four, and he has limited opponents to two earned runs or fewer 21 times over 28 starts.
Guardians vs Yankees latest injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Guardians vs Yankees weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
