MLB Home Run Derby 2024 Prop Picks and Best Bets: Witt Wills Way to Win

Prop bet #1: Witt has will to win

Bobby Witt Jr. comes into this Home Run Derby having one hell of a first half of the season. Witt enters the break hitting .323 with a .927 OPS, and most importantly for tonight’s derby, 16 home runs. 

While that is one of the lower totals among the participants this year, don’t let that fool you. Witt has some power and ranks among the leaders in this field in several key metrics for hitting dingers. Witt ranks third in bat speed, average exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage, and second in barrel rate and expected slugging percentage.

The Kansas City Royals star shortstop also leads the field in no-doubt percentage. That is the percentage of his home runs that would have left the yard in all 30 MLB ballparks. 

But hitting the ball is only one half of the Home Run Derby. The other is making sure you have a guy who can consistently serve up meatballs to be whacked out of the park. 

We’ve seen both ends of that for two of this year’s participants. Former Mets coach Dave Jauss has been praised for his ability to put the ball exactly where Pete Alonso needs it, while Adolis Garcia was the victim of coach Tony Beasley doing his best Pedro Martinez impression. 

With that in mind, Witt will hit off his brother-in-law and former big league reliever James Russell. Russell is a left-hander who now works at a prospect academy and has thrown to Witt before in the offseason.

Now, some might point out that Witt only has three home runs vs. left-handed pitching this season, but that’s mostly because he hasn’t faced any lefties with just 67 plate appearances against them. His OPS vs. LHP is still a respectable .899 and he’s still hitting more home runs per plate appearances vs. lefties than righties.

The cherry on top is Witt grew up just around the corner from Globe Life Field. I’m going with the hometown hero here.

Bobby Witt Jr. prop: Outright winner (+550 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Henderson flexes his muscles

I’m going with another young gun with my second pick, the aptly named Gunnar Henderson. The Baltimore Orioles star shortstop swatted 28 dongs this season and has more home runs than anyone other than Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. Not bad.

Yet somehow, Henderson still looks a little overlooked in this competition. He comes into this Home Run Derby with just the sixth-longest home run this season but his average home run measure at 403 yards is the fourth-longest.

Henderson also grades out well in a bunch of key metrics for hitting dingers in a competition like this. He leads the field in bat speed, average exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage. And how do you hit balls far? Swinging hard and creating high exit velocity. Which Henderson has in spades.

He is also very familiar with his derby pitcher, Buck Britton, who was Henderson’s manager at Triple-A Norfolk and they got in some BP at Camden Yards last week.

Home Run Derby practice today at Camden Yards.#Orioles’ Gunnar Henderson taking BP off Triple-A Norfolk manager Buck Britton, who will be his Derby pitcher on Monday.

(Gunnar hit the 2nd pitch here into RCF seats) pic.twitter.com/2NB0kcUZ8Q

— Jake Rill (@JakeDRill) July 11, 2024

The other thing here is the odds in the longest home-run market seem to be solely based on each participants longest home run of the season and not the import metrics. Otherwise we shouldn’t be getting Henderson at +1,000 to hit the longest home run tonight, which is a price I can’t pass up.

Gunnar Henderson prop: Longest HR (+1,000 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Playing the long game

While I’m betting Henderson to hit the longest home run tonight, it looks like oddsmakers are giving these batters a little too much credit when it comes to hitting bombs.

I’m seeing the Over/Under for the longest home run tonight as high as 484.5 feet. That’s a really long shot. The longest home run this season went 476 feet off the bat of Shohei Ohtani. The longest off the bat of someone in this field was 468 feet from Witt, and that was against a Casey Mize meatball.

When you look at the field of this Home Run Derby, while it should be entertaining, it is lacking a little home run star power. Last year, for instance, included Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Julio Rodriguez, Alonso, and Luis Robert Jr. All big power hitters. 

The longest home run that night was 484 feet by Robert. The second-longest home run, also by Robert, measured at 470 feet. The third-longest home run was 13 feet shorter than that at 457. Vladdy, the eventual champion in 2023, hit one 456. 

While I think we’ll see a ton of home runs in the 450 range, it’s just really hard to hit baseballs that far. With a field that looks a little lighter overall when it comes to power, I like the Under to hit on the longest home run prop tonight.

Longest home run prop: Under 484.5 feet (-110 at DraftKings)