There's no better way to spend your weekend of MLB betting than cheering for home run props, and BetMGM's Grand Slam Jackpot has made hitting your dinger bets potentially even more profitable.
Entering couldn’t be easier. Simply place a wager of $10 or more on a player to hit a home run on Friday through Sunday and you’ll win a share of a $50,000 bonus bet jackpot if he hits a grand slam that day. It’s an especially sweet deal since BetMGM already has some of the best MLB player prop odds for homers in the industry.
There's some strategy involved for maximizing your chances of correctly betting a grand salami, so to prep you for each weekend of action I'll break down my best picks for Friday... along with the best pitchers/players to target, ahead of Saturday and Sunday play.
BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot picks for tonight
Tyler Stephenson (+425 at BetMGM)
Stephenson and the Cincinnati Reds are facing Cubs lefty Justin Steele tonight, who recently gave up six dingers in a three-game span, has allowed five+ runs (and plenty of traffic on the basepaths) in four of his last five outings, and his platoon splits very much show he's susceptible to right-handed batters.
Plus, tonight's game is taking place at Great American Ball Park — very much a hitter-friendly stadium — meaning the righties to target are either Jeimer Candelario, Spencer Steer, or Tyler Stephenson, who have been occupying the 3-4-5 spots in the order in each of Cincy's last five games against a southpaw.
Candelario is the hottest hitter of the three and has been hitting in the No. 3 spot, while Steer's 0-fer yesterday snapped an 11-for-23 stretch, but since we want to maximize our shot of getting a Grand Slam, we're going with Stephenson, who is batting in the five-hole — which statistically has the second-highest percentage of all bases loaded plate appearances since the start of 2022 (and is third among all batting spots in 2024 at 11.6%).
This play isn't just about the batting order, however: Stephenson is currently hitting .393 during a seven-game hitting streak, with a 50% fly-ball rate vs. LHP in that span... plus he's 8-for-13 in his career off Steele.
Ryan Mountcastle (+475 at BetMGM)
Mountcastle doesn't necessarily fit the mathematical profile, recently finding himself batting third in the high-powered Baltimore Orioles lineup, but the top of the order could find itself with the bases loaded with how deep Baltimore's lineup is.
There should also be plenty of traffic on the basepaths against struggling Tampa Bay Rays righty Aaron Civale, who's given up at least one homer in 10 of 12 starts this season and has one of the highest WHIP rates over the last month among any of today's starting pitchers.
Civale just faced the Rays a week ago, giving up one run on six hits over 5 1/3 innings, but only 5% of the contact was classified as "soft," his fly-ball rate was almost 50%, and it was by far his best start since the beginning of April.
I wouldn't expect him to keep one of baseball's top offenses quiet again — plus Mountcastle is 6-for-9 (with two HR) in his career off Civale, so as long as the turn of the order keep hitting, he very well could have a shot at a salami.
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BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot - Saturday preview
Nastrini set to get shredded again?
On Saturday, the woeful White Sox will send out righty Nick Nastrini, who has a sparkling 9.74 ERA and 2.07 WHIP across 20 1/3 IP this season, to take on the Boston Red Sox.
He's issued twice as many walks to LHH vs. righties (in about half the plate appearances), and RHH have accounted for four of his five home runs allowed.
The name that fits the profile is No. 5 hitter (and righty) Tyler O'Neill, who is second on the team in home runs and is 4-for-7 since returning from a 10-day IL stint. Cleanup hitter (and team HR leader) Rafael Devers is also an option — but his high walk rate means he may not be the man to cash in — while another lefty in veteran Dominic Smith is in play too as he will likely bat sixth.
Possible picks: Tyler O'Neill > Rafael Devers > Dominic Smith
Phil it up in London
The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets square off in London, England for a two-game set this weekend. In 2019, the first games at London Stadium, there were 50 combined runs in two games. Fast forward to last year, and the Cardinals and Cubs combined for 10 and 12 runs in the two contests — we can expect some runs.
Sean Manaea has been solid for the Mets this season, but he has had a propensity to pitch himself into trouble, currently sitting tied for the fifth-most batters faced with the bases loaded this season (nine) — and he has allowed one Grand Slam this season (which came in his last outing).
The Phillies are sixth in average and tied for third in HR against southpaws this season, so with Manaea not showing big platoon splits (lefties have the better average, righties more HR), anyone in the 3-6 range for Philly is on the table in what should be a hitter-friendly venue.
The Phillies have been shuffling their order recently against lefties, but if righty Nick Castellanos (5-for-11 with 2 HR in his career off Manaea) is in his usual No. 5 or No. 6 spot, he would be a prime target.
Castellanos did bat second in the team's most recent game against a lefty; if that is the case on Saturday. No. 3 Bryce Harper (who has a .429 xBA against Manaea), and cleanup hitter Alec Bohm (best xSLUG on the roster vs. Manaea) are the next best options.
Possible picks: Nick Castellanos > Alec Bohm > Bryce Harper
BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot - Sunday preview
Sandoval is... coarse
Los Angeles Angels southpaw Patrick Sandoval started June with a strong outing, but his three prior starts featured plenty of walks (10) and home runs (five) and he'll be facing a Houston Astros lineup that is 10th in average and 11th in HR against lefties this season.
Sandoval has traditional splits, with righties doing the majority of the damage. Considering Kyle Tucker's injury status, I would wait to see if the likes of Alex Bregman, Jeremy Pena, and Yainer Diaz slot in the 4-6 spots in the order before making a decision.
Bregman (5-for-11, 1 HR off Sandoval) is riding an eight-game hit streak and has homered in four of his last six games, Diaz has homered in three straight games entering Friday, and Pena is hitting .333 off southpaws this year.
Of course, you can always also look at lefty slugger (and No. 3 hitter) Yordan Alvarez too because, well, he's just a monster.
Possible picks: Alex Bregman > Yainer Diaz > Yordan Alvarez > Jeremy Pena
Carrasco's sauced
Cleveland Guardians righty Carlos Carrasco has stunk it up over his last six starts, posting a 6.97 ERA with a 1.48 WHIP and eight home runs allowed in 31 innings.
He'll face the Miami Marlins who aren't exactly an offensive powerhouse, but do have two Grand Slams this season and are fifth in the Majors in BA against righties since May 1.
Josh Bell is hitting .356 with three HR off RHP in that span, while Jesus Sanchez is at .277 with two dingers and Bryan De La Cruz has a team-leading five bombs over that period — but the Marlins lineup tends to get shuffled day-to-day, so wait to see who is in the best Grand Slam spots before pulling the trigger.
There's also Jazz Chisholm, who generally bats first or second... but somehow has two Grand Slams this season.
Possible picks: Josh Bell > Bryan De La Cruz > Jesus Sanchez > Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Grand slam trends
Grand slams aren't frequent, but if you want to maximize your chance of your bet being the biggest of big flies, here are some statistics to consider:
- From the start of the 2022 season through May 2024, the highest percentage of all plate appearances with the bases loaded was the No. 6 spot (13.48%), followed by the No. 5 hitter (12.84%). Seventh in the order is third at 11.66%, just barely ahead of the cleanup spot (10.84%).
- The No. 3 spot — traditionally a team's best hitter — unsurprisingly has the best home run rate with the bases loaded (3.76%, just ahead of Nos. 2, 4, and 1), but the three-hole actually has the third-fewest PAs with the bases loaded in that span — while the bottom of the order (Nos. 8/9) have the two worst HR rates of all lineup spots.
- The only spots with fewer grand slam chances than No. 3? That would be the leadoff hitter and No. 2 spot, both of which had less than 10% of all bases-loaded PAs.
What's the takeaway? The No. 3 hitter is often your best chance of a home run, but betting on hitters in the 4-7 spot in the order is likely your best shot of getting an at-bat with the bases loaded.
