The Toronto Blue Jays will play host to the Seattle Mariners for the first time since the M’s handed the Jays a humiliating postseason exit last October.
For those who don’t remember, the Blue Jays led the Mariners 8-1 in Game 2 of their wild-card round matchup, before crumbling in epic fashion, eventually losing 10-9.
The Jays will look to erase some demons, but they’ll be in tough going up against Seattle ace Luis Castillo, who has been dealing to start the season. Toronto counters with Alek Manoah, who showed signs of busting out of an early-season slump.
I break down the odds for this American League matchup and bring you my best bet in MLB picks and predictions Mariners vs. Blue Jays on Friday, April 29.
Mariners vs Blue Jays odds
Mariners vs Blue Jays predictions
Maybe that crushing defeat focused the Blue Jays. They enter this matchup winners of 15 of their last 21 games and the last four in a row overall. Meanwhile, the Mariners are still trying to find their footing getting off to an 11-14 start.
But a good way to get on the right foot is by handing the ball to Luis Castillo. The move to acquire the right-hander at last year’s trade deadline looks like a brilliant one.
Castillo has allowed just five earned runs all season long. That’s good for a 1.52 ERA. He’s limiting opponents to a .170 batting average and striking out 10.3 batters per nine innings. Oh, and he hasn’t given up a home run this season either.
Now, the Blue Jays are a tough lineup. But Castillo handled them well last season, including shutting them out on six hits while striking out five over 7 1/3 innings in Game 1 of last season’s wild-card matchup.
Countering Castillo is Alek Manoah. The Blue Jays right-hander had an absolutely disastrous start to the season, pitching to a 6.98 ERA over his first four starts. This was shocking considering he was coming off a season where he finished third in Cy Young voting.
But he looked like that guy last time out. Manoah pitched seven innings of two-hit shutout ball at Yankee Stadium. And now he faces a Mariners lineup that ranks 23rd in batting average, 20th in OPS, and 18th in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitchers this season.
I’m betting something has clicked for Manoah, making this a classic pitcher’s duel, and taking the Under on the first five inning total.
My best bet: Under 4.5 first five innings (-107 at SIA)
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Mariners vs Blue Jays moneyline analysis
The Blue Jays opened this American League matchup as roughly -125 home favorites, but it’s the Mariners seeing the early money, and the line has moved Toronto down to the -105 to -110 range depending on the book.
This is certainly due to some wondering which Manoah will show up. And that Mariners have won seven straight matchups with the Blue Jays. Manoah looked fantastic in his last start — numbers aside, he appeared to have much better control of his slider.
Otherwise, the Jays are the team that is in much better form right now, winning 15 of their last 21 games while the Mariners have lost six of nine.
Castillo is the x-factor here and is capable of shutting down any lineup on a given day, so while there may be a little value on the Blue Jays at home here, it’s not enough for me to be confident in a play on the side.
Mariners vs Blue Jays Over/Under analysis
The total, on the other hand, looks a little inflated. It’s on the board at 8.5 and the only reason for that is due to Manoah’s inconsistent start. But like I said, he’s showing signs of bouncing back and thus maybe creating a little value on the Under.
I know this is not a postseason game, but when these two guys took the mound for Game 1 of their wild-card series opener the total was 7.
Today, Seattle doesn't hit for a good average, and Castillo isn’t letting anyone for a good average. Clearly, I like the game to be low scoring early on, so I’d lean toward the full-game Under as well.
Mariners vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Friday, April 28, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | RSN, Sportsnet |
Mariners vs Blue Jays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Luis Castillo (2-0, 1.52 ERA): Castillo has been everything the Mariners could want out of an ace. The right-hander hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in a start since Sept. 25, 2022.
Alek Manoah (1-1, 5.13 ERA): Manoah may have figured something out in his last start. His slider had much more bite to it and it has the first time this season where he didn't issue multiple walks.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Under is 7-0-1 in the Blue Jays' last eight games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Blue Jays
