Luis Castillo’s much-anticipated Mariners debut certainly isn’t an easy matchup. Seattle’s new ace was acquired at the deadline and will be thrown right into the fire against the Yankees, who possess the AL’s best record at 70-34.
If the Mariners hope to make a playoff push, they’ll need Castillo to come through in big games. Wednesday’s debut marks the first time he’ll be appearing for a team other than the Cincinnati Reds.
Will Castillo come away victorious in his new digs, or will the Yankees snag yet another win?
Check out our MLB picks and predictions for the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees to find out.
Mariners vs Yankees odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Yankees opened as low as -165 but have taken some steam. Currently, they reside between -179 and -196 favorites depending on the book. The total opened at 7.5 and that’s where the number currently sits at most books, although 7 is also available.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Mariners vs Yankees predictions
Picks made on 8/3/2022 at 12:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Mariners vs Yankees game info
• Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
• Date: Wednesday, August 3, 2022
• First pitch: 1:05 p.m. ET
• TV: Root Sports, YES Network
Mariners vs Yankees betting preview
Starting pitchers
Luis Castillo (4-4, 2.86 ERA): Castillo has been pitching in the majors since 2017 and has accumulated a 44-53 record with a 3.62 ERA. Those numbers don’t quite paint the picture of how good he’s been, as he’s mostly played for some bad Cincinnati Reds teams and has maintained an ERA below 4.00 in five of his six seasons, including 2022. He has a 2.09 ERA on the road this season, so it’s possible the change in scenery works wonders.
Gerrit Cole (9-3, 3.30 ERA): By now we know how dominant Gerrit Cole is, but his 3.30 ERA is the highest it’s been since his last year with the Pittsburgh Pirates (2017). There’s no cause for alarm, though, as his 3.01 xERA and 3.19 FIP are both solid peripherals and the rest of his numbers are in line with recent seasons. He’s slipped a bit lately, allowing eight earned runs in his last two starts and notching just one win since July 12.
Weather
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Key injuries
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Betting trend to know
The Mariners are 8-2-1 in their last 11 games against right-handed starters. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Yankees
Mariners vs Yankees picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Castillo could have ended up in New York at the trade deadline, as the Yankees were reportedly one of the teams interested in acquiring his services. As things turn out, he’ll instead be facing the Pinstripes while they’re at the plate and he’s on the mound as a member of the opposing team.
It’ll be a matchup between two quality starting pitchers, so it’s hard to give either team a huge edge in that department. Castillo does have the better ERA (2.86 to 3.30 for Cole), and his 2.09 ERA on the road indicates that he may have success outside of Cincinnati going forward.
The talented hurler traveled to Yankee Stadium on July 14 as a member of the Reds and threw seven innings of two-hit, one-run ball while striking out eight batters. Cole is still an elite arm, so both teams have to be confident in their starters.
These teams split the first two games of the series, with the Yankees taking the first game 7-2 and the Mariners taking the second game 8-6. Wednesday’s early afternoon meeting will be the decider. Seattle has been great in that spot, going 6-1 in their last seven during Game 3 of a series.
Surprisingly, Seattle has been great against the AL East, winning six of its last seven games against the division. The Mariners are road warriors, going 19-7 over their last 26 away games and they’ve been hot in general, winning 21 of their last 29 overall.
The Yankees are the rightful favorite as they are among the World Series favorites at this juncture. That being said, this line feels wide.
Seattle has a new ace on the mound and has been in great form over the last month. They have a better chance of taking this game than the line indicates.
Prediction: Mariners moneyline (+165 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
Allow me to get straight to the point: I’ll be targeting the Under in this matchup between two elite starting pitchers.
Castillo showed just last month that he’s capable of being effective against this potent Yankees lineup, holding New York to just two hits and one run across seven innings. You know he’s elite because not only does he have swing-and-miss stuff (25.8% strikeout rate), but he also induces soft contact (3.4% barrel rate).
Cole needs no introduction at this point. You’d guess that this Mariners lineup would have better numbers than they do lately since they’ve won 21 of their last 29 games. Surprisingly, they rank middle-of-the-road (17th) in wRC+ dating back to the beginning of July.
The Under is 8-2-1 in the Mariners’ last 11 games against a right-handed starting pitcher. Cole is capable of handling even the best of lineups and he projects favorably as always on Wednesday.
When it comes to the bullpen, the Yankees have the second-best ERA in relief (2.88) in the league while Seattle also cracks the Top 10 with a 3.57 ERA.
These teams combined for 14 runs on Tuesday but the offensive output should fall back down to earth. I’ll side with the Under for Game 3.
Prediction: Under 7.5 (-118 at 888sport)
Best bet
I’m rocking with the Under as Wednesday’s best bet.
I see slight value on the Mariners’ moneyline, but betting against this lethal Yankees team isn’t something that I recommend making a habit of. Both teams are sending elite starting pitchers to the mound, and there’s reason to expect success from both. Therefore, I’m targeting the total instead of the side.
Castillo is hoping to make a successful Mariners debut and has a 2.09 ERA on the road. Cole has been one of the game’s best pitchers for what feels like years now and faces a Mariners lineup that is 8-2-1 to the Under in its last 11 games against a right-handed starter.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-118 at 888sport)
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