The New York Yankees are going incredibly bad at the plate right now, but the return of Harrison Bader may be enough to buoy this team on Tuesday night against George Kirby and the Seattle Mariners.
Let’s break down Mariners vs. Yankees in our MLB picks and predictions for Tuesday, June 20.
Mariners vs Yankees odds
Mariners vs Yankees predictions
There’s been no team worse at hitting than the Yankees over the last two weeks. They’ve posted a league-worst 66 wRC+ and are slashing just .199/.256/.351 in that span. With that being said, there is some hope with the return of Harrison Bader.
The Yankees are 18-8 this year when Bader plays, and it’s no surprise when you consider he’s hitting .267 this year with six home runs. At the very least, Bader should help the Yankees look a little bit better vs. George Kirby than they did without him on May 31. In that outing, the Mariners righty spun eight shutout innings.
In the surrounding starts, though, Kirby has been a little inconsistent. He yielded seven earned against the Pirates on May 26, and following his dominance of the Yankees, gave up five earned runs on 11 hits against the Padres.
Kirby’s strikeout rate remains a middling 22%, and his expected batting average is a poor .259. That number has been on the rise in the last seven starts, even with a strong showing last time out.
I think there’s hope for a Yankees offense that has much better with Bader, and one which has been hurt a lot by strikeouts.
My best bet: Yankees moneyline (-110 at BetMGM)
Mariners vs Yankees same-game parlay
Yankees moneyline
Jake Bauers To Record a Hit
Gerrit Cole 7+ Strikeouts
Jake Bauers did have some competitive plate appearances against Kirby the last time these two teams squared off, likely because he’s a fastball hitter. While he didn’t record a hit that day, I think there’s a lot of value in taking him to get a hit here.
Bauers will be leading off for the Yankees and comes in with a three-game hitting streak. So, he will be guaranteed the maximum amount of plate appearances barring an injury or substitution, and he’ll also be in a solid spot against the fastball of Kirby.
Gerrit Cole’s also a great value to rack up some strikeouts here, and I like the alternate number of seven for this parlay. The Mariners have the third-worst strikeout rate in baseball over the last week, and have generally speaking been a bad hitting team.
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Mariners vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
For the reasons I outlined above, the Yankees look like a solid wager on the moneyline tonight, and the betting public seems to agree with me. The Yankees account for 78% of the moneyline tickets and 93% of the handle.
The Under is worth a strong look here when you consider how bad this Yankees offense has been. I realize I said above that Bader should give this team a shot in the arm, and while that is true, he’s simply one man.
DJ LeMahieu is once again out of the lineup thanks to his slumping bat, and he was just one of three batters to record a hit against Kirby the last time these teams met. The Yankees aren’t walking enough right now to really put pressure on Kirby, so I think he should be able to avoid a catastrophe here.
With that said, 96% of the handle here is on the Over, with 68% of the tickets on the Over at DraftKings. That means there is some serious cash being put down on a high-scoring game.
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Trend to know
The Under is 3-0-1 in the Mariners' last four overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Yankees
Mariners vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, June 20, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Root Northwest, YES |
Starting pitchers
George Kirby (6-5, 3.24 ERA): Kirby’s numbers thus far are almost a carbon copy of his 2022 season. His 3.45 xERA is almost right in line with his 3.24 ERA, and his strikeout rate is a perfectly average 22%. He threw six shutout innings last time out against the Marlins.
Gerrit Cole (7-1, 2.75 ERA): While the veteran may not be striking out as many guys as we’re used to seeing, he still owns a 2.00 ERA over his last three starts. He’s allowed just 15 hits in 18 innings in that sample.
