Mets vs Astros Picks and Predictions: Soaring Past the Over in Space City

The New York Mets and the Houston Astros will wrap up their brief two-game interleague series at Minute Maid Park on Wednesday afternoon.

The Mets’ Carlos Carrasco will square off with the Astros’ Luis Garcia on the mound. Who will walk away with the victory on Wednesday?

Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Mets vs Astros on Wednesday, June 22.

Mets vs Astros odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Astros opened as -123 consensus favorites, and have been bet up anywhere from nine to 18 cents at the majority of sportsbooks.

The consensus opening total was 8.5, and that number remains in place at some sites as of Wednesday morning, but some totals of 8 are beginning to crop up. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Mets vs Astros predictions

• Prediction: Mets ML (+120)
• Prediction: Over 8 (-112)
• Best bet: Over 8 (-112)

Picks made on 6/22/2022 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Mets vs Astros game info

• Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
• Date: Wednesday, June 22, 2022
• First pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
• TV: MLB Network

Mets vs Astros betting preview

Starting pitchers

Carlos Carrasco (8-2, 3.96 ERA): Carlos Carrasco goes for his eighth win in 10 starts in this spot. He’s had his strikeout stuff working on the mound in June, recording 29 Ks over 23 innings. This will be Carrasco’s first outing against the Astros since 2019.  

Luis Garcia (4-5, 3.41 ERA): Luis Garcia snapped a five-start winless streak last Wednesday, holding the Rangers to one run over six innings of work while striking out nine batters. Opponents are hitting a modest .197 against Garcia in June. This will be the Venezuela native’s first career start against the Mets.  

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Mets: Jeff McNeil 2B/LF (Questionable), Seth Lugo RP (Questionable), James McCann C (Out), Collin Holderman RP (Out), Tylor Megill SP (Out), Jacob deGrom SP (Out), Travis Jankowski RF (Out), Max Scherzer SP (Out), Trevor May RP (Out).
Astros: Jake Odorizzi SP (Out), Jeremy Pena SS (Out), Aledmys Diaz SS (Questionable).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 16-5-1 in the Mets’ last 22 interleague road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Astros

Mets vs Astros picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Carlos Carrasco should continue to get plenty of run support in another Mets victory on Wednesday afternoon. 

It could be argued that Carrasco is a bit lucky to have eight wins to his credit with only five quality starts under his belt. However, he pitched sparingly over the last two seasons, so his pitch limit has had almost as much to do with his general effectiveness in keeping the quality starts figure down. 

“Cookie” has been a good game manager for the Mets, allowing opponents to hit just .235 with runners in scoring position, far lower than his overall figure of .265. 

New York’s well-balanced lineup – starring MLB RBI leader Pete Alonso – should be able to give Carrasco and its up-and-down bullpen a decent lead in this one. Brandon Nimmo has multiple hits in four of his last eight games, and Mark Canha has a .448 OBP over the last two weeks. 

Astros starter Luis Garcia has been bit by the home run ball this season, allowing five in June, and 12 on the season. The Mets are more than capable of using this to their advantage, as Alonso has already gone deep in this series, along with Eduardo Escobar. Francisco Lindor is third among shortstops in the home run department this year with 11 dingers.

Trend bettors should note that the Mets are 23-5 in their last 28 games following a loss, while the Astros are 3-8 in their last 11 interleague games against right-handed starters.

Prediction: Mets moneyline (+120 at Caesars)

Over/Under analysis

It’s unlikely that either starter will escape unscathed, and the combination of the New York bullpen and the Astros lineup should ensure that this game goes Over the total eventually. 

The Mets’ relief corps is 12th overall by ERA (3.76) but 23rd over the last two weeks with a 4.74 ERA. Joely Rodriguez has an 8.31 ERA in June, while Chasen Shreve has allowed seven earned runs in his last three outings alone. 

Houston outfielder Michael Brantley is hitting .390 with two homers and nine RBI in June. Kyle Tucker is batting .317 with five homers and 16 RBI this month, three of which came in Tuesday’s 8-2 victory. 

Yordan Alvarez was re-inserted into the Houston lineup on Tuesday despite a sore hand and homered. Jose Altuve also went deep in the series opener and is 10-for-26 (.385) all-time against Carrasco with a four-bagger. 

Prediction: Over 8 (-112 at FanDuel)

Best bet

Predicting the Mets lineup on a daily basis has been difficult since Buck Showalter has taken over the reins, but their fans and bettors have had little reason to complain. If Luis Guillorme finds his way into the order, the Over looks like an even stronger play, as he’s hitting .355 since June 10.

If Guillorme rides the pine in this one, it’s likely because Jeff McNeil has overcome his “day-to-day” hamstring issue and will start instead. McNeil has been just as hot as Guillorme, batting .358 in June. 

The Over is 5-1 in the Astros’ last six interleague home games against right-handed starters, and 20-8 in the Mets’ last 28 games against right-handed starters.

Pick: Over 8 (-112 at FanDuel)

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