The New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers square off in the final contest of their three-game NL Wild Card Series tonight.
Playoff baseball tends to bring out the best in star players, and my favorite MLB player props for this showdown back All-Stars Francisco Lindor William Contreras, while also highlighting the dominance of Jose Quintana.
Be sure to also check out our Mets vs. Brewers predictions ahead of opening pitch!
Mets vs Brewers props for Game 3
- Quintana Under 2.5 earned runs (-135 at bet365)
- Lindor Over 0.5 RBIs (+200 at FanDuel)
- Contreras Over 0.5 walks (-105 at bet365)
Today’s best Mets vs Brewers props
Prop bet #1: Jose Quintana Under 2.5 earned runs
Jose Quintana enters the postseason with plenty of momentum, having pitched to a sizzling 0.74 ERA with an OBA of .197 over his last six outings.
Quintana faced the Milwaukee Brewers in his final start of the regular season, allowing two runs and fanning a season-high nine batters before getting the hook midway through the fifth inning. The Brewers struggled at the dish during the final month, ranking 28th in the majors in batting average (.219) with an OPS of .658.
Books have been loath to release pitcher outs props in the postseason due to the short leashes these starters are on. However, shorter stints from pitchers do provide nice opportunities for Unders in other categories as well. That has me taking the Under 2.5 earned runs for Quintana to kick off my MLB picks.
Prop bet #2: Francisco Lindor Over 0.5 RBIs
Francisco Lindor wrapped up the regular season slashing .273/.344/.500 while leading the New York Mets in runs (107) and RBI (91) in 152 games. The three-time Silver Slugger recipient began the season slow but caught fire during the final two months, slashing .320/.376/.580.
The Brewers are sending rookie Tobias Myers to the mound for Game 3. Myers posted an impressive 3.00 ERA across 25 starts but his expected ERA is significantly worse at 4.11.
Myers sits in the Bottom 25th percentile in ground ball rate and average exit velocity, which is bad news against a hard hitter like Lindor.
Prop bet #3: William Contreras Over 0.5 walks
William Contreras is one of the best hitting catchers in the world, and his eye for the ball (and the intimidation factor from opposing pitchers) has led to plenty of walks. Contreras tied for eighth in the majors with 78 walks in 155 games, and his walk rate (11.5%) ranks in the Top 10th percentile.
Quintana has struggled with control, and his walk rate of 8.8% ticks up to 9.7% against right-handed hitters like Contreras. Likewise, Contreras gets more free passes when he has the platoon advantage, with his walk rate surging to 13.6%.
New York's bullpen also has control issues, with Mets relievers collectively ranking 28th in the majors in walk rate (10.7%). Whether it's a freebie from Quintana or another N.Y. hurler, I like Contreras' chances of getting a free pass tonight.
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Today’s MLB games
Here is the schedule and MLB odds for today’s matchups:
