The New York Mets (67-62) ready themselves to face the San Diego Padres (73-57) on Saturday night at Petco Park. New York grabbed an 8-3 victory in Game 1 but San Diego bounced back for a 7-0 victory in Game 2.
See why I think the Padres will come out on top with my Mets vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, August 24.
Mets vs Padres prediction
My best bet
Padres -1.5 (+145 at bet365)
My analysis
David Peterson has been an effective starter for the New York Mets this season with a 3.00 ERA across 14 starts. If you stopped your inspection there and didn’t do further digging, all would appear to be fine.
The thing is, none of the underlying metrics support that ERA. His 5.16 xERA and 4.27 FIP paint a much different picture. The southpaw ranks in the 13th percentile in xBA (.272), the 18th percentile in averaging exit velocity (90.1 mph), and the ninth percentile in hard-hit rate (44.8%).
So … he must strike out a lot of batters, or at least limit his walks, right? Wrong. He ranks in the 21st percentile in both K-rate (19.1%) and walk rate (10.4%), so quite frankly there isn’t much to like about his performance and regression should be around the corner.
The 28-year-old hurler faces a red-hot San Diego Padres team that has suffered just seven defeats since July 19. They’ve been crushing left-handed pitching with a 120 wRC+ and .337 wOBA, both numbers that rank Top 5 in the MLB in that span.
San Diego counters with Michael King, whose 3.18 ERA is more well-supported by his 3.44 xERA and 3.33 FIP. He’s been a revelation this year and excels at limiting hard contact (97th percentile average exit velocity, 96th percentile hard-hit rate). He should benefit even further from a weather forecast that calls for 9-11 mph winds blowing in toward first base.
The Padres have won each of King’s last five starts and are 7-1 in his last eight. The bullpen behind him has been unmatched lately with a league-best 2.34 FIP and 2.56 xFIP in August.
There’s a reason San Diego has been winning so many games lately, and I’m betting that run continues on Saturday in convincing fashion.
Mets vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Padres -1.5
David Peterson Over 2.5 earned runs allowed
Manny Machado 2+ total bases
I’m betting on the regression monster coming for Peterson in a difficult matchup. He’s been susceptible to right-handed bats, surrendering a 4.82 xFIP and a 1.44 WHIP on the year.
Manny Machado had three hits a night ago and has a 124 wRC+ against LHP, so I’m scoffing at the plus money being offered for him to record 2+ total bases.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Padres odds
Mets vs Padres live odds
Mets vs Padres opening odds
- Moneyline: New York +134 | San Diego -146
- Run line: New York +1.5 | San Diego -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Mets vs Padres moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Padres have hit the moneyline in 36 of their last 53 games.
- The Mets have been underperforming expectations offensively, hitting their team total Under in 22 of their last 34 games.
- The Padres have gone Over the total in 24 of their last 34 home games.
Mets vs Padres trend
San Diego is 5-0 in King’s last five starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Padres.
Mets vs Padres game info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-24-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: |
WPIX, SDPA
|
| Mets starting pitcher: | David Peterson (7-1, 3.04 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Michael King (10-6, 3.19 ERA) |
Mets vs Padres latest injuries
Mets vs Padres weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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