The Baltimore Orioles taking on the Kansas City Royals is a matchup only baseball bettors could love. The American League basement-dwellers open a four-game weekend set at Kauffman Stadium.
The O’s are coming off a series split against the Cleveland Guardians and will be handing the ball to Jordan Lyles. Meanwhile, the Royals avoided a sweep at the hands of the Toronto Blue Jays and are countering tonight with Kris Bubic.
While these are overlooked teams, that doesn’t mean we should overlook the betting value. Find it in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Orioles vs. Royals on Thursday, June 9.
Orioles vs Royals odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This game opened as basically a coin flip with both teams hitting the board at -110. And that’s where the line remains as of Thursday afternoon. The total hit the board at 9.5 and that number is currently juiced towards the Under.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Orioles vs Royals predictions
Picks made on 6/9/2022 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Orioles vs Royals game info
• Location: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
• Date: Thursday, June 9, 2022
• First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
• TV: MASN, Bally Sports Kansas City
Orioles vs Royals betting preview
Starting pitchers
Jordan Lyles (3-4, 4.50 ERA): Lyles has been a reliable innings-eater for the Orioles this season. The right-hander is averaging over 5.5 innings per start and has pitched at least into the sixth in five of his last seven starts.
Kris Bubic (0-3, 9.33 ERA): Bubic got sent down to AAA after a tough start to the season. The lefty pitched to a 12.83 ERA over his six games (five starts) but threw five scoreless innings against the Astros in his first start since getting recalled.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Orioles: Joey Krehbiel RP (Out).
Royals: Hunter Dozier 1B (Questionable), Joel Payamps RP (Questionable), Gabe Speier RP (Out), Amir Garrett RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Royals are 1-6 in their last seven home games when facing a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Royals
Orioles vs Royals picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Despite the fact they are in last place in the AL East, these are not the same old sad, flightless Orioles from years past. Yes, there is still a long way to go with this roster, but some signs of hope are starting to appear.
For starters, the schedule makers did the O’s no favors. Forty of their first 57 games have come against teams with a greater than .500 record. You can tell this is a scrappy and fun ball team that fights for everything because they are a respectable 17-23 in those games.
The offense has some great pieces like Cedric Mullins, Trey Mancini, Anthony Santander, and Ryan Mountcastle, and while they haven’t been great against lefties this season, Bubic has been bad enough that it shouldn’t matter too much.
Despite coming off a solid start, the 24-year-old Bubic has been consistently roughed up this season. He is pitching to an expected ERA of 9.10 and surrendering an expected batting average of .343 to opponents. Those are among the worst numbers in baseball.
The O’s counter Bubic with veteran Jordan Lyles. The right-hander has been solid if unspectacular for the Orioles this season, allowing three earned runs or fewer in seven of his last 10 starts.
Prior to the eight runs put up in yesterday’s win over the Blue Jays, which was in large part aided by the fact that a blind person could have done a better job of locating the strike zone than Yusei Kikuchi, the Royals had averaged just 2.44 runs over their previous nine games.
The other thing to consider here is that the Orioles have a decided edge when it comes to the bullpens. Baltimore ranks sixth in ERA and 13th in WHIP while Kansas City ranks 28th and 30th in those categories. With Bubic averaging less than three innings per start this season, that could mean a lot of work for that struggling Royals pen.
Basically, the Orioles don’t look like the worst team in baseball anymore. The Royals might be.
Prediction: Orioles moneyline (-110 at Caesars)
Over/Under analysis
It’s easy to understand why the total between these two teams is this high. Two, frankly below-average starters going against what can be a capable-at-times offense. I get it, but that doesn’t mean this number isn’t too high.
Even though I like the Orioles' chances in this one, they still rank 26th in batting average and OPS when facing lefties this season while ranking 25th in scoring, plating 3.97 runs per game. While Royals, as noted, haven’t been scoring at all lately and rank 19th in batting average and 24th in OPS when facing righties.
And while Lyles’ numbers are so-so at best, he’s gotten into the most trouble when he gives up the long ball. The Royals have hit the third-fewest home runs in baseball.
There could be some scoring in this one, but you’re putting a lot of confidence in two below-average offenses to carry you to 10 runs or more if you’re on the Over in this one. I’m not.
Prediction: Under 9.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
Best bet
Trey Mancini has carried his hot month of May into June and he’ll look to stay hot in this series-opener.
After a month of May that saw him get hits in 21 of the 27 games he played, Mancini now has hits in five of his first six games in June. He is 7-23 (.308) in those games, but more importantly, six of those seven hits have been for extra bases (three doubles and three home runs).
Tonight, he gets a juicy matchup against a struggling Bubic and a Royals bullpen that might be struggling even more.
With Mancini also hitting .292 against lefties this season, he looks like a solid bet at even money to go Over his total bases once again tonight, something he's done in five of six games this month.
Pick: Trey Mancini Over 1.5 total bases (+100)
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