Orioles vs Yankees Picks and Predictions: Baltimore Keeps It Tight in the Bronx

The New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles will link up for their second series of the season on Tuesday night. The Yankees are off to a solid 10-6 start while the Orioles have a reversed record at 6-10 but have looked improved, particularly in the pitching department. Two weeks ago, the Orioles took two of three from the Yankees in their first series of the year. 

Can New York get off to a strong start this time around? Check out our free MLB picks and predictions for Orioles vs. Yankees on Tuesday, April 26.

Orioles vs Yankees odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Opening odds for today's matchup were released this morning. The Yankees opened up as a commanding -275 favorite, and Baltimore came back the other way at +225. Since then, the O's have taken a little money, but the odds have mostly stayed the same. The total opened up at eight and has gone to 7.5 at a few books but stayed the same at some others.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Orioles vs Yankees predictions

• Prediction: Orioles ML (+235)
• Prediction: Under 8 (-125)
• Best bet: SGP - Orioles +3.5 and Under 8.5 (+112)

Picks made on 4/26/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Orioles vs Yankees game info

• Location: Yankee Stadium, New York, NY
• Date: Tuesday, April 26, 2022
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
• TV: Mid-Atlantic Sports Network, YES Network

Orioles vs Yankees betting preview

Starting pitchers

Jordan Lyles (1-1, 3.52 ERA): After being blasted by the Tampa Rays on opening day for seven earned runs, Lyles has settled down. Against this Yankees team, he gave up just one run in five innings. Then, he followed it up with a scoreless performance against the Oakland Athletics in five innings and registered the win. 

Luis Severino (1-0, 2.08 ERA): Could this finally be the breakout year for Luis Severino? After back-to-back years that were derailed by injury, Severino looks good. He's finally healthy, and he's gotten off to a strong start this season. In 2022, Severino has — in a short sample size — posted career-best in swing and whiff percentage while lowering his hard-hit rate. He was banged around a bit by the Red Sox on Opening Day to the tune of two runs in three innings. However, he's been stellar since then, allowing just one run in his last ten innings of baseball.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Orioles: No key injuries.
Yankees: No key injuries.
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 10-1 in the Orioles' last 11 games with a total set between 7.0-8.5. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Yankees

Orioles vs Yankees picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Yankees are nearly -300 in a few spots. I find it incredibly difficult to tell anyone to take a number past -220 in virtually any situation in MLB. In this particular one? My numbers are seeing just over 10% in value. I have the O's priced at around +155 and will be taking them here today.

Lyles kind of dominated the Yankees in the first meeting. He surrendered only one run on six hits throughout 5 1-3 innings. He struck out four and relied on timely groundballs to get eaten up. While his metrics don't exactly inspire much belief that his strong start can be sustainable, there is a reason for optimism in this one. The Yankees haven't exactly blown the cover off the ball so far this season. However, even they are due for regression. According to their "expected stats," they are the second team in the MLB most due to slugging and average batting perspectives. If Lyles can continue along the path of his 50% groundball rate, he can once again stifle this Yankees lineup. 

For the last couple of seasons, it's seemed like the O’s are constantly being undervalued as a team that can rake. While they don't exactly kill it from a hitting perspective, when they make contact, they usually hit it very far. They've now ranked in the Top-5 in average home run distance for a few seasons. There's a reason for that. Severino has improved in virtually every area this season, but he's struggled with his barrel rate at times throughout his career. The O's have multiple guys that connect with their barrel rate, and I don't anticipate it will take many runs to win this one.

Give me Baltimore moneyline here, because the price is fair out of whack. I see the Orioles winning this game closer to 38% of the time, rather than the 28% it's being priced.

Prediction: Orioles moneyline (+235 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

Unders and the Baltimore Orioles have been a match made in heaven so far this season. There are a variety of trends that signal the Under here, with one of my favorites being the Under is 10-1 in the O's last 11 games with a total set between 7.5 and 8.

I like the matchups for both pitchers in this one. The likelihood that at least one of these offenses gets stifled seems pretty high. Both have succeeded in inducing groundballs this season, and both are facing offenses that have a problem with pitchers that do that. Conditions in Yankee Stadium tonight aren't exactly favorable for runs, either. The temperature will be low, and while the wind will be blowing, it will mostly be blowing out to right field. That points to more flyball fouls than home runs. 

My numbers are projecting a significant edge here. I have the likelihood of this game going Under or pushing the posted total at around 75%. That's over a 20% edge. We've discussed thoroughly how I like both pitchers tonight. The conditions in the stadium just put the cherry on top. 

Prediction: Under 8 (-125 at Circa)

Best bet

Let's take a current handicap and come up with a same-game parlay. We've already established that this will be low-scoring and the Yankees are entirely overpriced. So, what's the best way to take advantage of that? Alternate lines. 

While my numbers only give Baltimore around a 38% chance to win the game, that number goes up significantly when you lose by less than two. It goes up even more when you change that number by less than three. And guess what? It goes up even more when you change that number to less than four. 

I'm taking a same-game parlay of Baltimore +3.5 and Under 8.5. It's correlated in that if the game goes Under like I expect it to, the O's will either win or lose by less than three. It is currently being priced at FanDuel for +112, and I see a significant value in that number.

Pick: Same Game Parlay - Orioles +3.5 and Under 8.5 (+112 at FanDuel)

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