The San Diego Padres and Atlanta Braves begin a three-game set at Truist Park on tonight. The defending World Series champion Braves are looking to get their season on track as they host the Padres, who are battling for first place in a highly competitive NL West.
MLB betting lines opened with the Braves installed as -149 home favorites with the Over/Under at 7.
Here are our best free Padres vs. Braves MLB picks and predictions for Friday, May 12.
Padres vs Braves odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This line hit the board on Thursday with the Braves installed as -145 home favorites with the Over/Under at 7. Early money has come in on Atlanta, shifting its line to -160 while the total has stayed steady at 7 and juiced slightly towards the Over.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Padres vs Braves predictions
- Prediction: Padres ML (+140)
- Prediction: Under 7 (-105)
- Best bet: Darvish Over 6.5 strikeouts (+124)
Picks made on 5/13/2022 at 11:50 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Padres vs Braves game info
• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Friday, May 13, 2022
• First pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
• TV: Apple TV+
Padres vs Braves betting preview
Starting pitchers
Yu Darvish (3-1, 4.05 ERA): The 35-year-old had one brutal start this season which torpedoed his ERA but he has generally been sharp. He's coming off a game where he limited the Marlins to two runs in seven innings and he pitched 6 2-3 innings of one-run ball against the Braves back on April 17.
The five-time All-Star had a disappointing debut season with the Friars last year going 8-11 with a 4.22 ERA. That said, he averaged 10.8 K/9 with a 1.09 WHIP and had an expected ERA of 3.32 so he could be in line for a bounce-back year.
Max Fried (4-2, 2.68 ERA): The southpaw has been Atlanta's ace this season, pitching to a 0.84 WHIP with a .212 OBA in 37 innings. In his last outing, he held the Brewers to four hits and one run in seven innings of work. The 28-year-old went 14-7 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 165 2-3 innings in 2021.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. SS (Out).
Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr. OF (Questionable), Eddie Rosario OF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Padres are 7-0 in their last seven games following a loss while the Braves are 2-8 in their previous 10 contests after a win. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Braves
Padres vs Braves picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Padres are fresh off a loss to the Cubs but are still 15-7 in their last 22 games, a stretch that began with a 2-1 victory against the Braves on April 17. Veteran righty Yu Darvish was on the mound for San Diego in that contest and he'll get the start tonight as well.
Darvish has a middling 4.05 ERA in six starts but that number is distorted by one nightmare performance against San Francisco near the start of the season when he allowed nine runs in less than two innings. In his other five starts, Darvish has pitched to a sizzling 1.71 ERA with a 0.82 WHIP.
The Braves respond with a stud starter of their own in Max Fried. Atlanta has won in each of Fried's last four starts, with the lefty pitching to a 1.38 ERA with a 0.58 WHIP through 26 innings in those contests.
Like pretty much every team in the majors this season, neither of these sides has been consistent at the plate. While the Braves have a slight edge in OPS (.695 to .684), the Padres have a more impressive .713 OPS when playing away from the pitcher-friendly confines of their home park. They also rank sixth in the majors with a .715 OPS against left-handed pitchers like Fried.
Atlanta has its ace on the mound tonight but the Padres might have a slim edge at the dish (especially if Ronald Acuna Jr. misses his second game in a row with a groin injury) and have a very good pitcher of their own in Darvish. They've also been the better team over the last several weeks while the Braves have been hot-and-cold. We'll side with the underdogs at this price.
Prediction: Padres moneyline (+140 at Caesars)
Over/Under analysis
We mentioned how dominant both Darvish and Fried have been lately, and the bullpens for both sides have also been generally reliable. Atlanta's relievers are sixth in the majors with an OBA of .205 and San Diego's are ranked ninth with a collective OBA of .214.
Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer have been keeping San Diego's offense afloat while the team awaits the return of Fernando Tatis Jr. However, the rest of the Padres lineup has been beyond awful, batting just .165.
The Braves have more pop throughout their lineup but have problems making contact and are near the bottom of the majors in strikeout rate and batting average.
Combine that poor hitting with a pair of stud starters on the mound and it's easy to see why the Under is the play even with the total sitting at just 7.
Prediction: Under 7 (-105 at bet365)
Best bet
Darvish had mixed results last season but he still struck out 199 batters in 166 1-3 innings. He also had a season-high eight punchouts against the Braves when he faced off against them last month.
Darvish has a history of making the current Braves lineup look silly. Marcell Ozuna, Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson, Adam Duvall, Travis d'Arnaud, and Orlando Arcia (who all started in their previous game on Wednesday) have struck out a whopping 30 times in 71 career at-bats against Darvish.
Even at 35-years-old, Darvish has an overpowering four-seamer that averages 95.3 mph with a spin rate that ranks among the Top 5% of pitchers in the majors. With the Braves second-last in the majors in strikeouts per game (9.25) we're expecting Darvish's fastball to give them fits and taking the Over 6.5 on his strikeouts total.
Pick: Yu Darvish Over 6.5 strikeouts (+124)
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