The Milwaukee Brewers’ hot start has been one of the fun early-season storylines, but they’ll have their hands full tonight against the San Diego Padres.
The Brewers had won four in a row before yesterday’s 6-4 loss to the Baltimore Orioles and haven’t dropped a series yet this year.
But don’t count out San Diego who's 3-1 in its past four outings and picked up a 6-3 victory over the Dodgers yesterday thanks to Jurickson Profar’s three-RBI day. Check out my free Padres vs Brewers predictions and MLB picks for this April 15 battle.
Padres vs Brewers prediction
My best bet
Brewers moneyline (-110 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
The Milwaukee Brewers have made a compelling case early in a wide-open NL Central with their 10-4 start. The weekend series against the Orioles only added to the hype, with Milwaukee scoring 11 runs apiece in its victories on Friday and Saturday before coming up short against former Brewer Corbin Burnes yesterday.
The Milwaukee offense is on a tear, with at least seven runs in six of the last seven contests. Five of the Brewers’ starters have a batting average above .300 and William Contreras has racked up 15 RBIs. Even with Christian Yelich and his .333 average listed as questionable for tonight, the hosts have sparks up and down the order.
Joe Ross takes the ball for the Brewers here, and he was steady last week with seven strikeouts and just two earned runs through 6 1/3 innings. He got plenty of run support that day — and I’m counting on some cushion from the Milwaukee bats tonight too.
I’m also factoring in Joe Musgrove’s wobbly start to the season. The San Diego Padres righty only lasted four innings against the Cubs last week, giving up four runs and three walks, and he also allowed four runs in his first start of 2024 in a loss to the Giants.
The Brewers have the power to get to Musgrove here and I’m riding with them to get the job done.
Padres vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
Brewers moneyline
Willy Adames Over 1.5 total bases
Joe Ross Under 4.5 strikeouts
Adames is off to a flying start this season, putting his disappointing 2023 numbers behind him. The Milwaukee shortstop is hitting .310 with three home runs and nine RBIs so far, and I like his chances of getting on base here.
He was a difference-maker at the weekend with eight hits across the three games in Baltimore, and two of those hits were doubles.
I’m also taking a cautious approach with Ross, who missed most of the past two seasons due to injury. As much as I trust this Milwaukee lineup to put runs on the board, the Brewers’ starter is facing a tough test tonight against a Padres team that’s scored 96 runs in their 18 outings this season.
If this proves to be a high-scoring contest, I see Ross running out of time to tally five or more strikeouts.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Padres vs Brewers odds
Padres vs Brewers live odds
Padres vs Brewers opening odds
- Run line: San Diego -1.5 (+130)| Milwaukee +1.5 (-144)
- Moneyline: San Diego -125 | Milwaukee +116
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-114)| Under 8.5 (+102)
Padres vs Brewers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The sportsbooks have this as more or less a coin flip, with Musgrove and Ross tasked with containing two of MLB’s hottest offenses
- The Brewers have won the past four meetings between these teams, and I’ve already made the case for the hosts to step up against Musgrove, who’s carrying a 6.87 ERA through three starts
- The Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings, and the O/U line of 8.5 puts a surprising amount of faith in the starting pitchers against these loaded lineups
- Both teams rank in the Top 3 in runs and homers in 2024, and Milwaukee trails only the Braves in team batting average
Padres vs Brewers trend
The Over is 9-1 in the Brewers’ last 10 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Brewers
Padres vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Monday, 4-15-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SDPA, Bally Sports Wisconsin |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Joe Musgrove (1-2, 6.87 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Joe Ross (1-0, 1.80 ERA) |
Padres vs Brewers latest injuries
Padres vs Brewers weather
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