The Los Angeles Dodgers are ruling the NL West, and Friday they begin a three-game series against the San Diego Padres, the team closest to them in the standings.
And by “closest”, I mean far away. The Padres are 18 games out of first place and are fighting for a Wild Card spot at this point. The last time the two teams met was last month and the Dodgers swept the three-game set.
But the Dodgers will be playing their eighth game in as many days and had to travel from New York late Thursday night. Could the Padres, who had Thursday off, take advantage of a possibly jet-lagged Dodgers on Friday? Find out with our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Padres vs. Dodgers on September 2.
Padres vs Dodgers odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Dodgers, who are home, opened at -167 and have seen a minor dip to -164 at most places. The Padres sit around the +142 mark. The total started at 7.5 but has since moved to 8.0, with the Over at +100 and the Under at-105.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Padres vs Dodgers predictions
Picks made on 9/2/2022 at 2:10 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Padres vs Dodgers game info
• Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Friday, September 2, 2022
• First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports San Diego, SportsNet LA
Padres vs Dodgers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Yu Darvish (11-7, 3.41 ERA): The 36-year-old veteran hasn’t had much luck against the Dodgers this season. In three appearances, Darvish has two losses and a no-decision. His last outing against Los Angeles was August 7 and he allowed two runs on seven hits in six innings.
Prior to that, he gave up five runs on eight hits in six innings and picked up the loss. The one appearance against the Dodgers where he didn’t take a loss was back in April. He pitched a strong game, allowing no runs on one hit, but the Padres lost in extra innings, 3-2.
Dustin May (1-1, 1.64 ERA): May’s return to the rotation two weeks ago couldn’t have come at a better time. The 24-year-old (who was out after having Tommy John surgery) returns just as the Dodgers lose Walker Buehler for the year and Tony Gonsolin was put on the 15-day IL. In his two starts, May has allowed two total runs on six hits in 11 innings.
Weather
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Key injuries
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Betting trend to know
The Padres are 1-6 against the Dodgers in their last seven games. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Dodgers
Padres vs Dodgers picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Run line analysis
The Dodgers have the best record in baseball but just finished losing two of three to the New York Mets. They are now back home and take on their NL West nemesis — the San Diego Padres.
They’ve dominated the Padres this season, winning six of the nine matchups, including a month ago when they swept them. In that series, they limited the Padres to four runs, while scoring 20.
Now they send out Dustin May, who returned from Tommy John surgery on August 20 and has had two impressive starts, both against the Miami Marlins, where May allowed two runs and six hits in 11 cumulative innings, while striking out 13.
May has faced San Diego several times in his career and done well in just about every appearance. In 2020, he faced them as a starter three times, allowing five runs on 11 hits in 17.1 innings. He also had three innings of scoreless, hitless relief in the playoffs. Last year, May had one start against them and limited the Padres to one run on two hits.
With May keeping the Padres in check, the Dodgers bats should provide the pop to cover the run line. All of L.A.’s six victories against them this season have come by multiple runs. Meanwhile, the Padres are 15-43 in their last 58 trips to Dodger Stadium.
Prediction: Dodgers -1.5 (+130 at BetRivers)
Over/Under analysis
Dustin May’s record against the Padres suggests the Under is the play, but what about San Diego starter Yu Darvish? The 36-year-old righty has not enjoyed the same success against the Dodgers.
Darvish has faced the Dodgers three times this season, pitching to two losses and a no-decision. His runs allowed, however, is not too bad, conceding seven runs in 18 innings, a number skewed by a five-run outing.
The Dodgers have hit the Under in four of their last five games. The Padres have hit the Under in four of their last six against a team with a winning record.
One intangible that might be in play here: The Dodgers have played seven consecutive days, including last night in New York. They then hopped on a plane and flew back to Los Angeles, arriving sometime around midnight. This team should be weary and jet-lagged, and we might not see their lineup mash as they normally do.
Darvish is the key to the Under hitting. If he pitches as he has in two of his three appearances against the Dodgers, the total should stay below eight runs.
Prediction: Under 8.0 (-105 at BetMGM)
Best bet
I am all-in on the Dustin May train. I think his last two performances have shown he is back and feeling no effects from the Tommy John surgery.
In his two games since his return, he’s struck out 13 batters in 11 innings. That’s an average of 1.2 strikeouts per inning. If he pitches six innings tonight, he will hit the Over of 5.5 strikeouts.
I think he’ll do much better than that. The last time he faced San Diego was April 25, 2021. He recorded 10 strikeouts. In the three times he faced them in 2020, he had six or more strikeouts twice.
The Padres are 19th in strikeouts with 1,079 — averaging 8.1 per game. If May pitches like he has the previous two games, he should easily hit the Over here.
Dustin May prop pick: Over 5.5 Ks (+135 at DraftKings)
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